Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05TELAVIV198
2005-01-11 11:11:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tel Aviv
Cable title:  

DESPITE UNITY GOVERNMENT, SHARON STILL STRAINING

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C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 000198 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON KWBG IS GOI INTERNAL ECONOMY AND FINANCE
SUBJECT: DESPITE UNITY GOVERNMENT, SHARON STILL STRAINING
TO PASS BUDGET

Classified By: A/DCM Norman Olsen for reasons 1.4 (b,d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 000198

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON KWBG IS GOI INTERNAL ECONOMY AND FINANCE
SUBJECT: DESPITE UNITY GOVERNMENT, SHARON STILL STRAINING
TO PASS BUDGET

Classified By: A/DCM Norman Olsen for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) A division among the 13 Likud disengagement foes in
the Knesset may prompt several to give Prime Minister Sharon
the eight or so votes he needs to ensure first-reading
passage of the 2005 budget. The 13, known as "the rebels,"
have threatened to vote against the budget -- as they did
against forming the government -- as a means of derailing
Sharon's disengagement plan. While his government nominally
controls 66 Knesset seats, opposition by the 13 rebels would
leave Sharon scrambling to construct a simple majority from a
combination of opposition "pro" votes and abstentions. The
Knesset opens debate on the budget late January 11 and is
scheduled to vote on it in a first reading January 12.


2. (C) According to Likud rebel MK Gilad Erdan (strictly
protect),some of the rebels may support Sharon on the budget
to prevent early elections, something many of them fear. Few
observers believe that Likud would retain its 40 Knesset
seats in new elections, which could thus cost some MKs their
seats. He also discounted what he referred to as "media
hype" that the Likud Party itself could split, joking that
the Likud name is like "Coca Cola," and no one wants to split
from such a popular party. Erdan noted that some of the
rebels want to separate their opposition to disengagement
from their basic support for the budget. Erdan predicted
that in the end, therefore, Sharon would be able to pass his
budget. A noted academic also told the Ambassador that he
was seeing gaps in the rebels' ranks and predicted that
Sharon would try to "pick them off one by one."


3. (C) Separately, Or Pearl, assistant to Likud
disengagement foe MK Ehud Yatom, said that while several of
the rebels have indicated an intention to support Sharon on
the budget to avoid elections, they may end up following the
forceful lead of arch disengagement foe Uzi Landau, who will
likely vote against the budget. Pearl highlighted that the
rebels have been lately voting as a bloc and will probably
meet January 12 prior to the budget vote to decide on a
uniform position.


4. (C) Without the rebels, Sharon can count on some 53-54
MKs from his new coalition and several mavericks from outside
to support the 2005 budget. The 14 Shinui MKs, the six
National Religious Party MKs, the six National Union Party
MKs, and up to eight MKs from the Arab parties, will probably
oppose the budget. The 11 Shas MKs and Yahad's six MKs will
either vote against the budget or abstain. Support of the
pro-disengagement Yahad party and the United Arab List's two
abstentions saved Sharon's government in the January 10 vote,
but these parties' economic policies may prevent them from
supporting Sharon on the budget. In addition, Am Ehad, while
formally part of the coalition since it merged with Labor
January 1, has indicated it cannot support Sharon's budget.



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