Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05TELAVIV163
2005-01-10 13:41:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tel Aviv
Cable title:  

IDF CHIEF OF STAFF DISCUSSES PALESTINIAN

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 000163 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/07/2015
TAGS: PREL KPAL IS GOI EXTERNAL GAZA DISENGAGEMENT ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS
SUBJECT: IDF CHIEF OF STAFF DISCUSSES PALESTINIAN
ELECTIONS, DISENGAGEMENT, IRAN, AND SYRIA WITH CODEL KYL


Classified By: Acting DCM Norman H. Olsen; Reasons: 1.4 (B) and (D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 000163

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/07/2015
TAGS: PREL KPAL IS GOI EXTERNAL GAZA DISENGAGEMENT ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS
SUBJECT: IDF CHIEF OF STAFF DISCUSSES PALESTINIAN
ELECTIONS, DISENGAGEMENT, IRAN, AND SYRIA WITH CODEL KYL


Classified By: Acting DCM Norman H. Olsen; Reasons: 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Israeli Defense Force (IDF) Chief of Staff
LtG Moshe Ya'alon told CoDel Kyl January 7 that recent events
have ushered in "an era of strategic opportunity" in the
Middle East. He said that Israel is facilitating Palestinian
elections and believes that Abu Mazen is strong enough to
control terrorism -- including by Hamas and Islamic Jihad --
if he makes a strategic decision to do so. Ya'alon noted
that the IDF is ready to implement disengagement from Gaza in
July. He urged international sanctions against Iran to
prevent Tehran from acquiring the capability to produce
nuclear weapons. He also suggested that USG influence on
Egypt could end weapons smuggling through Sinai and that
international pressure could help reduce support for
terrorism by Lebanon, Syria, and Iran. He ascribed improved
security within Israel to the IDF's offensive operations in
the Palestinian territories and to the construction of the
security barrier. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) CoDel Kyl met with Ya'alon in the Israeli Ministry of
Defense on January 7. The Congressional delegation consisted
of Senators Jon Kyl, Lisa Murkowski, and Mel Martinez, and
Representative Adam Smith, as well as Congressional and
military staff. They were joined by Charge d'Affaires Norm
Olsen, Defense Attache Colonel Timothy Murphy, and poloff
(notetaker). Ya'alon was accompanied by Commander of the IDF
Media and Communications Division BG Ruth Yaron, Chairman of
the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Yuval
Steinitz, and staffers from the Knesset, IDF, MOD, and MFA.

-------------- --
New Opportunities and the Palestinian Elections
-------------- --


3. (C) Ya'alon called 2005 "an era of strategic opportunity,"
brought about by the U.S. presidential election, death of
Arafat, approval of PM Sharon's disengagement plan, and
upcoming elections in Iraq. He said that Israel is doing its
best to facilitate Palestinian elections. The IDF is acting
with restraint and avoiding operations in urban areas to the
extent possible, despite what he said were 100 terrorist

incidents last week. If the terrorist attacks continue after
the elections, however, he cautioned that he is "not sure
what will happen on Monday or Tuesday."


4. (C) Senator Martinez asked if Abu Mazen will have control
of the PA security forces after the election. Ya'alon
replied that this appears to be the case, provided the
Palestinian leadership implements the proposed security
reforms and takes advantage of logistical support offered by
Egypt, the EU, and UK. Israel will do its best to let Abu
Mazen succeed and will give him "a few weeks" to organize his
forces, said Ya'alon. This process must occur in a matter of
"days, not years," he cautioned. Ya'alon maintained that it
is not a question of capabilities, but of a political
decision to stop terror. He said Palestinian security forces
were prepared to crack down on terrorists after Arafat's
death, but "never received the order." Ya'alon noted that
Abu Mazen wants to convince the terrorists to voluntarily
refrain from attacks, but "there is no way to convince
without a stick."


5. (C) In response to a question by Senator Kyl, Ya'alon
replied that PA forces are strong enough to deal with Hamas
or Islamic Jihad. Ya'alon stressed that Abu Mazen must act
or Hamas will control the Palestinian agenda. He added that
the USG and others should focus on Hizballah, whose
capabilities are concentrated in areas outside of PA control.


--------------
IDF Ready to Implement Disengagement in July
--------------


6. (C) Ya'alon insisted that the IDF is ready to implement
disengagement in July. Israel prefers to coordinate with the
Palestinians, he said, but is prepared to act unilaterally if
necessary. Ya'alon predicted that extremists will increase
their attacks in the summer in an attempt to create the
impression of an Israeli retreat. After this period, the PA
will see it in their own interest to make disengagement a
success and build a case for disengagement from parts of the
West Bank. Outside forces such as Iran, Syria, and their
client groups will seek to undermine the PA efforts, he said,
but Israel will work to counter these threats.


7. (C) Senator Kyl asked how Israel will ensure security in
Gaza after disengagement. Ya'alon replied that the IDF will
increase its intelligence capabilities and deploy along the
border behind the existing security barrier. Ya'alon
cautioned that if attacks continue after disengagement,
Israel will respond, even if it must redeploy ground forces
into Gaza. Ya'alon said that he has recommended that Israeli
forces remain in the Philadelphi strip along the border with
Egypt until the PA demonstrates "responsible and effective
leadership." He added that any redeployment from Philadelphi
before that point would be a "disaster" and result in Gaza
degenerating into "Hamasstan, Al-Qaedastan, Hizballahstan."

--------------
Dealing with Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and Egypt
--------------


8. (C) Steinitz stressed what he said is the important role
that the Arab countries play in encouraging Palestinian
terrorism. Ya'alon noted that Iran, Syria, Hamas, Hizballah,
Islamic Jihad, and others see the adoption of western values
in the region as a threat. They decided to increase
terrorism in the region "the day Arafat died" in order to
prevent Abu Mazen from reaching an agreement with Israel. He
claimed that 75 percent of attacks by Palestinian terrorists
are financed by Iran, and that the main operational
headquarters for terrorism in the Palestinian areas is
operated by Hizballah in Beirut.


9. (C) Addressing the topic of weapons smuggling, Ya'alon
said all of Israel's borders are quiet except for the one
with Egypt. He described the Sinai, however, as a "paradise
for smugglers." Steinitz told the CoDel that "Egypt is doing
to us what Syria is doing to you in Iraq." Despite what
Ya'alon described as a "very good atmosphere" in
Egyptian-Israeli relations, Cairo refuses to address the
problem. He claimed that the only way to change the Egyptian
tolerance of smuggling is for the USG to threaten financial
consequences.


10. (C) Ya'alon said that even the Europeans understand that
Iran "is determined to acquire military nuclear
capabilities." He said there is still a chance to attempt to
convince Tehran to give up its military program (primarily
the fuel cycle),but described the EU-3 agreement as "not
enough." He reiterated Israel's view that the IAEA should
report Iran to the UNSC. Representative Smith asked how Iran
and Syria should be dealt with and about the possibilities of
greater cooperation with Europe. Ya'alon said the best way
to deal with external support for terror is through political
and economic sanctions. The USG and Israel should work to
convince the Europeans to be more aggressive in this regard,
he added.


11. (C) Ya'alon said that Israeli intelligence experts had
briefed their European counterparts on the Iranian nuclear
threat. While there is some cause for optimism, he added,
certain "key" political leaders such as German FM Joschka
Fischer still need to understand that Iran represents "not
just unconventional capabilities, but an unconventional
regime," which makes the threat to Europe tangibly different
than that posed by Russia during the Cold War. Ya'alon said
there is no chance to influence Iranian policy without
political and economic sanctions. Such sanctions might also
facilitate internal political change in Iran, he added.

--------------
Israel's Strategic Paradox
--------------


12. (C) Ya'alon described what he called Israel's "strategic
paradox." Despite its unbroken string of conventional
military victories and status as a regional superpower,
Israel still faces neighbors who question its "right to exist
as a Jewish state." Unable to challenge the IDF, Israel's
enemies began a "subconventional war" targeting civilians
with terror, primarily mortar, rocket, and suicide bomber
attacks. They intend to use both terror and demographics to
drive Israelis out. Ya'alon described the Intifada as a
political decision by the Palestinian leadership and not a
popular uprising. He claimed that Fatah leaders saw the Oslo
accords as a "Trojan horse" that allowed them to return to
the West Bank and Gaza and commence terror operations.


13. (C) Ya'alon said the IDF faces "new challenges" in
dealing with the terrorist infrastructure. One part of this
task is to address the educational system, incitement, and
ideology supporting terror, he said. Ya'alon expressed full
support for the USG's strategy of fostering democracy and
education in the region. The other component is eliminating
capabilities, where, he added, "the best defense -- even with
terrorism -- is offense, no doubt about it." Israel has
arrested "thousands" of terrorists and continues to apprehend
15-20 a day. According to Ya'alon, Israel enjoys four
important advantages in its war against terror: intelligence
dominance, air superiority, precision munitions, and
information dominance (i.e., the ability to transmit
intelligence to the IDF end-user and systems in real time).
In the West Bank, Israeli security forces have freedom of
movement and can make arrests with relatively small numbers
of troops. In Gaza, however, troops are not based in the
cities, necessitating larger deployments for each operation.
Ya'alon said that these offensive operations, combined with
the construction of the security barrier, are "the main
reason we now enjoy a relatively fair security situation"
inside Israel.


14. (U) This message was cleared by CoDel Kyl.

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