OAS SYG: GOH BELIEVES DERBEZ AND INSULZA HAVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEGUCIGALPA 000697

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA, WHA/USOAS, AND WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/31/2006
TAGS: PREL PGOV AORC HO OAS
SUBJECT: OAS SYG: GOH BELIEVES DERBEZ AND INSULZA HAVE
SOLID CARICOM SUPPORT, BUT USG CAN STILL SWAY OUTCOME


Classified By: Acting Deputy Chief of Mission Francisco Palmieri;
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Honduran Foreign Minister Leonidas Rosa Bautista and
Senior MFA advisor AMB Policarpo Callejas told POLCOUNS on
March 30 that next week's OAS SYG race will hinge on the
ability of the U.S. to swing the votes of CARICOM nations.
Callejas added that Honduras expected the U.S. would be able
to sway the CARICOM votes at the end of the day to ensure
Flores' election.


2. (C) Nonetheless, FM Bautista said that Mexican FM Derbez
and Chilean FM Insulza have seven and six committed CARICOM
votes respectively. When pressed by POLCOUNS that the USG
believed that former Salvadoran President Francisco "Paco"
Flores had some CARICOM votes, both replied that he did not
have committed votes for the first round of voting. Callejas
then stated that they had seen at least some written
(although not quantified or specified) CARICOM commitments
for Derbez and Insulza.


3. (C) Both conceded that a first round victory for any
candidate seemed less and less likely, although they believe
Derbez has 14 committed votes, including Haiti's. When asked
if Honduras was prepared to support Flores candidacy in
subsequent voting rounds, FM Rosa Bautista said that Honduras
would have a difficult time voting for Flores under almost
any scenario and would likely stick with Derbez. POLCOUNS
suggested that Honduran support for Flores in a second or
third round of voting could prove pivotal in the SYG
selection process. FM Bautista took the point but did not
offer any opening that Honduras might switch its vote.
Palmer