ABKHAZIA: THE NEED FOR CONFIDENCE BUILDING

C O N F I D E N T I A L TBILISI 003226

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR DAS BRYZA, EUR/CACEN AND EUR/SNEC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL GG
SUBJECT: ABKHAZIA: THE NEED FOR CONFIDENCE BUILDING
MEASURES

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary: During a December 6 and 7 visit to
Abkhazia, the Abkhaz and Georgians agreed ad ref to a draft
of the joint declaration on security guarantees and the
return of internally displaced persons, the European
Commission launched a program of economic rehabilitation in
the conflict areas, and Ambassador Tefft met with a range of
de facto officials. In every meeting, Ambassador emphasized
that the U.S. supports the territorial integrity of Georgia
and the peaceful resolution of the conflict. The Abkhaz
stated their desire for independence and their concern over
the militant rhetoric of some Georgian leaders. They
welcomed increased assistance from the U.S. and increased
exposure to American values and culture. They praised the
planned USAID-funded joint Abkhaz-Georgian study tour to the
U.S. End summary.

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EC Commits 4 Million Euros to Rehabilitation Projects
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2. (C) On December 6 and 7 Ambassador, accompanied by Poloff,
traveled to Abkhazia to attend the first meeting of the
Steering Committee of a joint EC-UNDP-UNOMIG Rehabilitation
Program in the conflict zone and to hold other official
meetings. Representatives of the Friends of the Secretary
General (FSG) -- UK, Germany, France and Russia -- were also
present for the meeting. The program plans to restore basic
services such as electricity, public health, water
sanitation, waste management and agricultural development on
both sides of the conflict over the next two to three years.
Total funding will be 4 million Euros.


3. (C) State Minister for Conflict Resolution Giorgi
Khaindrava led the Georgian delegation to the meeting -
marking the first time many Georgians had been to Abkhazia
since the war ended in 1993 - and de facto foreign minister
Sergey Shamba led the Abkhaz delegation. Both Khaindrava and
Shamba noted that economic rehabilitation would help lay the
foundation upon which confidence could be built between the
sides. Khaindrava emphasized that the Georgian position of
support of the program reflects its cooperative approach to
resolving the conflict. Shamba said the sides were close to
agreement on the joint declaration on the return of
internally displaced persons (IDPs).

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Bagapsh Says Everything Flows from Economic Development
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4. (C) Following the UN meeting, the FSG met de facto
president Bagapsh, together with de facto prime minister
Ankvab and other de facto officials. Speaking on behalf of
the FSG, German Chair Ambassador Schramm encouraged the sides
to come to agreement on the joint statement on security
guarantees and on the return of IDPs, the latest draft of
which had just been delivered to the Abkhaz. Schramm noted
the deteriorating human rights situation in Gali and urged
the Abkhaz to follow through on commitments to open a human
rights office and allow the deployment of civilian police
there.


5. (C) Bagapsh said he was also concerned about Gali. He
claimed the worsening situation is the result of actions by
certain people with an interest in creating an unstable
situation there. He pointed to former Georgian militia
fighters, who he claimed recently appeared in the region. He
claimed that there was an explosion of criminality and
abduction only after these individuals arrived and began
making public statements. Bagapsh said the Abkhaz would not
allow the situation to spiral out of control or let anyone
else accomplish this goal.


6. (C) Bagapsh expressed concern about what he considered the
militarization of Georgia and pointed specifically to the
opening of a Georgian military base in Senaki, located on the
border with Abkhazia. He highlighted Saakashvili's speech to
a Georgian Youth Camp last summer where Saakashvili
emotionally emphasized the importance of returning Abkhazia.
Bagapsh said South Ossetian leader Kokoity had reported a
similar trend in South Ossetia: the Georgians had placed a
military hospital and MOI troops close to the border area.
This, he said, is increasing tensions there.


7. (C) Bagapsh said the Abkhaz are committed to a peaceful
negotiation of the conflict. With regard to the human rights
office and police force in Gali, he said the issue "is not
crossed off the agenda." He said he thought it would be
resolved step-by-step and suggested a package deal involving
economic incentives. He asked how the Abkhaz could speak of
human rights when Gali is in a state of economic collapse.


With regard to the recent Abkhaz law on citizenship, Bagapsh
said that his statement was misconstrued and aimed at
removing only the criminal element there.


8. (C) Ambassador Tefft said he was glad to hear Bagapsh did
not rule out opening a human rights office and encouraged
Bagapsh to build upon the positive statements made by
Khaindrava and Shamba. He raised concerns over the new
citizenship law. Bagapsh claimed he was misquoted and that
his remarks applied only to criminals in Gali. Ambassador
asked where the Abkhaz and Georgians might find common
ground. Bagapsh responded with a list including energy,
railway, highways, and sea/air connections. He concluded
that everything flows from economic development.

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Shamba: Argues for Independence, but Open to U.S. Cooperation
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9. (C) De facto foreign minister Sergey Shamba made the case
for Abkhaz independence. He claimed that not a single
politician would consider joining Georgia today. He said the
economic embargo and militant rhetoric from Georgia make it
impossible to change public opinion. Ambassador said the
U.S. supports the territorial integrity of Georgia and that
great leaders lead their publics toward peaceful solutions.
Shamba agreed that war would not be in the interest of
Abkhazia or Georgia. This, he said, could be the match that
lights the Caucasus.


10. (C) Ambassador said the U.S. is open to doing more with
Abkhazia. He offered as an example a visit by an American
Bluegrass Band next year. Shamba welcomed the idea and cited
the popularity of American film, culture and music. He said
he hoped to see a more active American presence in Abkhazia
and more such opportunities, including especially for Abkhaz
youth. Referring to the planned joint study tour to U.S.,
Shamba asked if all 12 candidates (instead of 10) could
attend. Ambassador said he would consult with the AID
Director in Tbilisi.

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NGO leaders: U.S. and Others Pushing Abkhaz Toward Russia
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11. (C) Ambassador met with a group of NGO leaders, including
many representatives from Natella Akaba's Association of
Women of Abkhazia. The leaders reaffirmed the Abkhaz
position on independence and claimed that the West is pushing
Abkhazia toward Russia as they may not travel Abkhazia except
through Russia and by taking Russian citizenship. They said
they were free to have connections with NGO leaders in
Georgia but public opinion prevents much interaction.


12. (C) They expressed many concerns also raised by Bagapsh,
including about the situation in Gali and the belief that
they Georgian militia fighters were behind them. The leaders
also reiterated Abkhaz concerns about the militarization of
Georgia. 90% of Abkhaz, one said simply, think Georgia is
preparing for war. They expressed concern over statements
made by Saakashvili, Burjanadze and others about returning
Abkhazia to Georgia.


13. (C) They defended the Abkhaz citizenship law by saying
that a Georgian who does not want Abkhaz citizenship may be a
resident in Abkhazia. They acknowledged that the law allows
dual Abkhaz-Russian citizenship but not Abkhaz-Georgian.
They said that it would not be possible to consider dual
Abkhaz-Georgian citizenship as long as Abkhazia remains in a
state of war with Georgia.

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Dinner with Both Sides: Agreement to Joint Declaration
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14. (C) Khaindrava and Bagapsh unexpectedly joined a dinner
hosted by Shamba that evening. SRSG Tagliavini as well as
the British and German representatives of the FSG and members
of Shamba's staff also joined. At the dinner, which followed
an internal meeting of the de fact Abkhaz authorities,
Tagliavini announced that there was ad ref agreement to the
latest draft of the joint declaration on security guarantees.


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Ankvab: Widen Connections between Georgians and Abkhaz
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15. (C) In a private meeting with Ambassador and Poloff, de
facto prime minister Alexander Ankvab briefed on the poor
economics of Abkhazia. Out of a budget of 644 million Rubles
($25.7 million),25% goes to defense. Shipments of the


biggest export, citrus, are down from 110,000 metric tons
before the war to 35,000 metric tons today. He explained
Russian investment as a result: $25 million in mandarin
processing, $15 million in wine production, and $25.6 million
to pave the road north of Sukhumi. He said the Russians also
pay about $1 million dollars in pensions to 26,000 of the
51,000 pensioners in Abkhazia.


16. (C) Ankvab provided a long list of the challenges he
faces as a result of destroyed or out of date infrastructure.
He pointed to serious problems with electricity, water
supply, waste management, telecommunications, and public
transport. He said there is no ability to care for the sick,
elderly and mentally ill, no medical care in the villages,
and 163 secondary schools need repair. He said he could go
on.


17. (C) Still, Ankvab made the case for independence, saying
the Abkhaz do not belong to anyone and it is a natural right
to be free. Ankvab said Georgia made a strategic mistake on
August 14, 1992, when Georgia attacked just as the Abkhaz
parliament was about to agree to a federation with Georgia.
He said the history of Georgia had compromised the idea of a
common life together and much more time needed to pass before
finding common ground. When asked how to get there, Ankvab
suggested widening the connection between Georgia and
Abkhazia through railway and other projects.

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Bagapsh: Leaves Open a Small Possibility for Negotiation
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18. (C) In a private meeting with Ambassador and Poloff, de
facto president Sergey Bagapsh said the Abkhaz hoped for
peaceful coexistence with Georgia. He said that Abkhazia
does not plan to go with Russia or with Georgia. Instead, he
said, Abkhazia wants to build a state that is part of Europe.
He argued for developing the economy as a way to achieve
more contacts with Georgians. He said he is concerned about
the situation in Gali and thought a statement by the FSG
might be useful. Bagapsh also expressed concern about
Saakashvili's militant rhetoric. He said a war with Abkhazia
would ignite the region.


19. (C) Ambassador said that the U.S. supports the
territorial integrity of Georgia and has publicly and
privately said to Georgia that the U.S. supports only the
peaceful resolution of the conflict. Ambassador noted in
particular the tremendous gulf between the way each side
interprets the actions of the other. He encouraged Bagapsh
to continue with confidence-building measures and said the
U.S. would look for ways to build bridges between the Abkhaz
and Georgians.


20. (C) In response to Ambassador's question about the
citizenship law and the human rights office, Bagapsh defended
the citizenship law by asserting that criminals were hiding
in Gali under the protection of Georgian passports. He did
not see a need for a human rights office but implied this
issue would be resolved in time. With regard to agreement
with Georgians, Bagapsh left the door open for negotiations
with Georgia, saying that the Abkhaz are ready to listen but
that time was required to heal the wounds of the 1990s.

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Ashuba: Abkhaz Want to Meet European Standards
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21. (C) de facto parliamentary head Nugzar Ashuba said the
Abkhaz are trying to meet European standards and hoped even
to adopt European legislation. He lamented that due to a
lack of direct ties to Europeans they model themselves on St.
Petersburg, which had ties to the European Parliament.
Ashuba made no apologies for not allowing dual
Abkhaz-Georgian citizenship. He said that the only reason
the law allows dual citizenship with Russia is practical:
without a Russian passport the Abkhaz could not travel. As
soon as the world recognizes our independence, he said, we
will change the law. He acknowledged that a Georgian without
Abkhaz citizenship would not have the right to participate in
politics or referenda.

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COMMENT
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22. (C) The Abkhaz we spoke to exhibited no desire to be
under the thumb of Russia any more than they want to be a
part of Georgia. Although every interlocutor expressed the
Abkhaz desire for independence, they implicitly accepted that
final status needed to be negotiated with Georgia. Nor did
they attempt to disguise the economic pressure they labor


under. The de facto president, prime minister and foreign
minister all emphasized the need for time and confidence-
building measures (particularly in the economic field) to
resolve the problem. They did not deliver legalistic
lectures and sought to convey an openness to more U.S.
contacts. End comment.
TEFFT