KMT LEADERSHIP RACE TAKES SHAPE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000997

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL TW
SUBJECT: KMT LEADERSHIP RACE TAKES SHAPE

REF: TAIPEI 00632

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: The KMT will announce the rules for its
chairman race and set May 28 as the election day at the March
16 Central Standing Committee meeting. While most observers
expect KMT Chairman Lien Chan to resign from his position to
allow for generational change in the party leadership, Lien's
vague statements have prompted other observers to claim that
he will not resign. Supporters of Taipei City Mayor Ma
Ying-jeou told AIT that Ma was deliberating keeping low
profile, confident that he was ahead in the opinion polls.
While Legislative Yuan (LY) President Wang Jin-pyng has yet
to announce his candidacy for the position, KMT insiders
expect Wang to declare soon. Many KMT members believe that
while Ma is the party's best hope for success in the 2008
presidential race, he might not necessarily be the ideal
party chairman. How Ma runs his chairman campaign in next
few months will determine whether his election as KMT
chairman results in a divided Pan-Blue in the immediate
aftermath of his ascension. End Summary.

KMT Slowly Sets Election Timetable
--------------


2. (C) Local media reported March 8 that the KMT will
finalize its chairman election timetable during the Central
Standing Committee (CSC) meeting on March 16. The KMT is set
to announce on March 21 an election for the chairman
position, finalize on April 28 all registered candidates, and
hold the vote on May 28. KMT Overseas Affairs Director Ho
Szu-yin told AIT that since Taipei City Mayor Ma's February
14 candidacy announcement, the KMT Organizational Development
Committee has been meeting busily trying to organize the
election according to the party charter. Ho said this will
be the first real chairman election in KMT history and no one
quite knows how it will play out.

Lien: Replaying the Same Message
--------------


3. (C) While Ma and his most likely rival for the chairman
position, LY President Wang Jin-pyng, continue to prepare
their campaigns, some political observers question whether
Chairman Lien Chan will actually step down. Lien remains
vague about his plans. Prior to Ma's announcement, Lien had
made a number of statements encouraging generational change
in the KMT leadership. Upon his return from his European
vacation, Lien met with the KMT LY caucus and renewed his
commitment to encourage new blood taking charge of the party.
However, Lien has not definitively stated his intention to
depart.

Recasting Ma's Image
--------------


4. (C) Since declaring himself a candidate, Ma has kept a low
profile, and he has even made some remarks that have led
political observers to question his commitment to stay in the
race. Two days after declaring his intention to seek the
job, Ma stated that he would withdraw from the chairman race
should his candidacy result in dividing the party. Ma's
aides, however, assured AIT that this statement was a only
show of humility to the KMT party members and that Ma intends
to remain in the race. Ma spokesman Jack Yu told AIT that in
light of media polls currently showing Ma leading over both
current Chairman Lien Chan and Legislative Yuan President
Wang Jin-pyng, it is important that Ma adopt a humble posture
and remain low key. Defending Ma against critics who called
him an upstart, Lai Shyh-bao, KMT/New Party Legislator and
longtime Ma advisor, pointed out to AIT that Ma had already
shown proper respect to Lien by waiting until Lien had called
for leadership change twice before making his announcement.


5. (C) Ironically, until recently, both Ma's supporters and
detractors were criticizing Ma for being too timid and
unambitious. KMT Legislator Shyu Jong-Shyong told AIT that
he is constantly worried that because Ma was too polite he
would allow events to overtake him. Jack Yu said that before
entering the chairman race Ma knew that his greatest weakness
was the public perception that he was gutless. In an attempt
to counter that perception, Yu said, Ma's advisors had urged
him not to delay his announcement until Lien's return from
Europe.


6. (C) Equally ironic for many political insiders, Ma
announced his intention to seek the KMT chairmanship exactly
two years from the date Lien and People First Party (PFP)
Chairman James Soong had announced the KMT-PFP alliance. Yu
asserted that it was a coincidence. Whether or not Yu is
correct, many observers here see the "coincidence" as a
pointed reminder of Ma and Soong's mutual antagonism.

Divided Loyalties
--------------


7. (C) Ma's presumptive rival for the chairman position,
Wang Jin-pyng, has yet to declare himself a candidate. Wang
has indicated his interest in being KMT chairman only
indirectly, saying most recently that he would run for
chairman if Lien decided not to seek reelection. While
Wang's coyness has prompted several observers to predict that
Wang would not join the race, most KMT officials say that it
is only a matter of time.

8. (C) The potential for a Ma-Wang match-up has already
started to divide the KMT. James Chen (Chien-chih),leader of
the bentupai (ethnic Taiwanese faction) who has been
mentioned as a possible Secretary General in a Ma-led KMT,
told AIT that he said flatly to Wang that he intends to
support Ma as the person who is most determined to be
chairman. However, Ma might need more than guts and ambition
to win the support of his party members. Chen pointed out
that while the leadership of the KMT are still predominantly
Mainlanders, the majority of the party and its supporters are
ethnic Taiwanese. While many KMT members hail Ma as the best
hope for meaningful party reform that will lead to electoral
success, they are still painfully cognizant that Ma is a
Mainlander. Chen told Ma that he will have to shed his
Mainlander advisors if he really wants to be president. Alex
Tsai, an ethnic Taiwanese KMT Legislator from Taipei City,

SIPDIS
told AIT that he was supporting Ma. However, his supporters
expect him to "pay the appropriate respect" to Wang, who is
still the ultimate symbol of the bentupai.


9. (C) Many KMT insiders have told AIT that they believe Wang
would make a better party chairman, while Ma would be a
better presidential candidate in 2008. James Chen advised
Wang that he should defuse that debate by stating clearly
that he is determined to be an effective chairman, without
making references to 2008. Others, like KMT Legislator Lee
Chuan-chiao, have been campaigning for U.S.-style system in
which the party chairman is not automatically the leading
candidate for presidential candidate.

Whither the Pan-Blue?
--------------


10. (C) Another complication in the KMT leadership question
is the party's deteriorating relations with James Soong and
the PFP. Whereas insiders had previously whispered about
Soong's dislike of Ma, PFP members are now openly talking
about it. Moreover, PFP Legislator Diane Lee (Ching-an) told
AIT that it is not just Soong who dislikes Ma, almost all PFP
legislators and officials feel the same way. All the PFP
members who have spoken recently to AIT say that they believe
Wang is the better candidate for KMT chairman. James Chen
acknowledged to AIT that many KMT members fear that a Ma-led
KMT would be detrimental for Pan-Blue unity, and that this
fear may be Wang's best hope of winning a majority. In the
same breath, however, Chen asserted that Ma is popular among
rank and file PFP supporters, who have recently been angry
with the party because of James Soong's meeting with Chen
Shui-bian.

Comment: The Dreaded Debated Ahead
--------------


11. (C) The long-anticipated Ma-Wang showdown appears finally
to be taking shape. The charismatic Ma would appear to have
the edge in a pure popularity poll, but his fight for the
chairman seat will be far from easy. Many KMT insiders, even
those who called themselves Ma supporters, believe Ma should
be the 2008 Pan-Blue presidential candidate but not
necessarily the party chairman. These people believe that
the KMT chairman should be someone who can build coalitions,
resolve tensions, and achieve consensus, and that Ma does not
have those abilities. The KMT old guard and the PFP would
prefer a Wang-led KMT precisely because they believe he has
the skills necessary to hold the Pan-Blue alliance together.
Ma might ultimately be able to unite the Pan-Blue voter bases
for his 2008 presidential bid. However, Ma must first be
able to convince his party that his election as KMT chairman
would not result in a divided Pan-Blue in the immediate
aftermath of his ascension.
PAAL