Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05TAIPEI414
2005-02-01 07:56:00
CONFIDENTIAL
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Cable title:  

CHEN OFFERS MIXED MESSAGES ON CROSS-STRAIT AGENDA

Tags:  PREL PGOV ETRD ECON CH TW 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000414 

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV ETRD ECON CH TW
SUBJECT: CHEN OFFERS MIXED MESSAGES ON CROSS-STRAIT AGENDA


Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000414

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV ETRD ECON CH TW
SUBJECT: CHEN OFFERS MIXED MESSAGES ON CROSS-STRAIT AGENDA


Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: President Chen Shui-bian delivered
contradictory messages on his cross-Strait policy agenda
during a January 31 meeting with AIT Board Director David
Brown in Guam. Chen characterized the recent charter flight
agreement as a "new beginning" in cross-Strait relations and
praised Beijing's decision to send Taiwan Affairs Office
(TAO) Deputy Director Sun Yafu to the February 2 funeral of
long-time Strait Exchange Foundation (SEF) Chairman C.F. Koo.
However, Chen delivered a tough message over Beijing's plans
for an Anti-Secession Law, warning that Taiwan would react
strongly if the PRC did not back down. Chen also asserted
that Beijing may use the proposed law to legally define its
territorial boundaries, a move that could challenge the
U.S.-Japan alliance. In response, Brown welcomed President
Chen's skillful handling of the charter flight issue, but
cautioned that if Taiwan reacts too strongly over the
Anti-Secession Law, it could risk being labeled as the source
of future cross-Strait tensions. In a subsequent meeting
with Guam's Congressional Delegate, Madeleine Bordallo,
President Chen reiterated his May 20, 2004 pledge not to
change Taiwan's legal status during the process of
"re-engineering" Taiwan's constitution. He also promised
that his 2000 "Five No's" pledge would remain in effect until
the end of his term in office. End Summary.


2. (C) During a brief transit through Guam on his return from
Palau to Taipei on January 31, President Chen Shui-bian
exchanged views on cross-Strait policy and U.S.-Taiwan
relations with AIT Board Director David Brown. Chen was
joined by Foreign Minister Mark Chen, Government Information
Office Director-General Lin Chia-lung, Overseas Chinese
Affairs Commission Minister Chang Fu-mei, and Presidential
Office Deputy Secretary General James Huang. Brown was
accompanied by AIT/T Acting Deputy Director and Deputy Pol
Chief.

Progress on Cross-Strait Ties
--------------


3. (C) President Chen asserted that his overriding political

priorities for the coming four year are to heal internal
divisions within Taiwan and ease tensions across the Taiwan
Strait. Chen noted that the U.S. and Japan fought a bitter
and costly battle over Guam in 1944, but 60 years later the
two countries have formed the closest alliance in the world.
"If the United States and Japan can do this," Chen continued,
"so can Taiwan and Mainland China." Chen characterized the
recent agreement to open direct charter flights for the Lunar
New Year as a "new beginning" in the cross-Strait
relationship. He added that with no major election scheduled
in Taiwan for another two years, Beijing and Taipei have an
opportunity to broaden consultations to cover a range of
economic and technical issues. Chen also praised the PRC's
decision to send State Council TAO Deputy Director Sun Yafu
to attend the February 2 funeral of long-time SEF Chairman
C.F. Koo.

But Dangers Ahead
--------------


4. (C) Chen asserted, however, that the PRC's plans to enact
an Anti-Secession Law threatened to undermine all of these
positive developments. Chen downplayed the significance of
PRC People's Political Consultative Conference Chairman Jia
Qinglin's January 28 speech marking the 10th anniversary of
Jiang Zemin's "Eight Points" Taiwan policy. "We should focus
on what China has done over the past 10 years, not what they
say," Chen stated. "In 1996 they fired missiles at Taiwan,
in 2000 their leaders tried to intimidate Taiwan's voters,
and now they want to pass an Anti-Secession Law," he added.
Chen warned that if Beijing passes this law in March, it will
create a sharply negative reaction in Taiwan that could not
be controlled by the government and push the island further
away from the Mainland. Chen commented that in 2003 500,000
people came out in Hong Kong to protest proposed revisions to
Article 23 of the Basic Law. "If Beijing proceeds with the
Anti-Secession Law," Chen added, "we can expect more than a
million people to take to the streets." Chen said that the
government would also come under pressure to enact an
"Anti-Annexation Law" or hold a referendum to protest PRC
actions if Beijing refuses to back down on its plans. "This
is not something we would like to see happen," Chen remarked.

5. (C) Brown praised Chen's skillful handling of the charter
flight initiative, and welcomed his offer of a "new
beginning" in cross-Strait relations. Brown added that the
PRC's plans for the Anti-Secession Law are also of great
concern to the USG and American China specialist community.
Nevertheless, Brown urged Taiwan to exercise restraint in its
response to Beijing. Should Taipei take the sorts of actions
the president referred to, Brown continued, Taiwan may find
itself blamed -- fairly or not -- for any resulting increase
in tensions.


6. (C) Chen responded that this was a public problem, not a
government one. "We are a democracy and the fact is the
people cannot tolerate this law," Chen asserted, "the
government cannot stop the Legislative Yuan from passing an
Anti-Annexation Law and we cannot stop the people from
demanding a referendum." Chen continued that Beijing's
proposed law was not only a threat to Taiwan, but also to the
United States and Japan. Chen asserted that Beijing is
seeking to legally define Taiwan's relationship with the
Mainland, an act that would violate President Bush's stated
opposition to unilateral changes in the status quo. "Beijing
wants to be the referee in addition to being one of the
players," he stated. Chen added that Beijing may also use
the law to define the PRC's territorial limits, a move that
could bring it into direct conflict with Japan over disputed
islands in the East China Sea.

U.S.-Taiwan Relations: Room for Growth
--------------


7. (C) Turning to U.S.-Taiwan relations, Chen offered
congratulations to President Bush on his January 20
inauguration. He praised President Bush's call to expand
democracy and freedom around the globe and promised that
Taiwan would be America's best partner in this endeavor.
Chen added that Taiwan would not take U.S. support for
granted, and promised that Taiwan will do its share to
provide for its own defense. In this context, Chen expressed
optimism that the three items contained in the Special
Defense Procurement Budget (diesel submarines, P-3C aircraft,
and PAC-III Patriot missile batteries) would be funded by the
new Legislative Yuan (LY). On the economic front, Chen
welcomed the USG decision to restart Trade and Investment
Framework Agreement (TIFA) talks and promised to accelerate
consultations on telecommunications and other outstanding
bilateral trade issues. He also thanked the USG for moving
Taiwan off the USTR's 301 priority watch list in recognition
of Taipei's crackdown on IPR violations.

Constitutional Reform to Remain Within Limits
--------------


8. (C) During a subsequent meeting with Guam Congressional
Delegate Madeleine Bordallo, Chen emphasized his commitment
to the cross-Strait status quo. Chen rejected PRC
accusations that his timetable for constitutional reform
amounted to a timetable for independence. Chen reiterated
his May 20, 2004 pledge that the process of constitutional
"re-engineering" would not result in a change to Taiwan's
name or territorial definition. He added that his 2000 "Five
No's" pledge would remain in effect throughout his term in
office. Chen said that any proposed constitutional change
would be conducted under procedures outlined in the current
constitution, which require approval by three-quarters of the
LY. Chen repeated these same assurances during a speech on
the evening of January 31 to Guam community leaders (Septel).


9. (U) David Brown and Rep. Bordallo did not have an
opportunity to clear this message.
PAAL