PREMIER HSIEH AND CHAIRMAN SU MANEUVER FOR 2008

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003286

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2015
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: PREMIER HSIEH AND CHAIRMAN SU MANEUVER FOR 2008
DPP PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION


Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) Summary: There are early signs of tension emerging
between Premier Frank Hsieh and DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang
as they begin to jockey for the party,s presidential
nomination in 2008. The outcome of the local elections in
December may help determine which of the two frontrunners
will be tapped to represent the DPP in 2008. President Chen
is being careful to avoid showing preference for either man,
apparently less out of concern for fairness than to keep them
off balance and himself from becoming a lame-duck President
anytime soon. End summary.

DPP Front Runners for 2008
--------------


2. (U) Now that the KMT chairmanship race has been settled
and the newly-elected Chair, Ma Ying-jeou, is the clear front
runner for the KMT 2008 presidential nominaton, attention is
turning to the DPP leadership succession. A public opinion
poll last week by the United Daily News showed Premier Frank
Hsieh running slightly ahead of Party Chairman Su Tseng-chang
as the party,s presidential nominee in 2008, with Vice
President Annette Lu (Hsiu-lien) and Presidential Secretary
General Yu Shyi-kun trailing far behind. (Note: A China
Times opinion survey also last week showed all four DPP
presidential hopefuls fairing poorly against KMT's Ma
Ying-jeou, Hsieh 44 to 20 and Su 48 to 19 percent. End
Note.)

Signs of Cracks Belie Public Denials
--------------


3. (C) Although both Hsieh and Su publicly deny they are
competing with each other for the 2008 presidential
nomination, DPP officials and legislators tell AIT that
competition, if not an outright split, between the two men is
indeed underway. DPP Foreign Affairs Director Bikhim Hsiao
told the AIT Deputy Director that she sees the growing split
between Hsieh and Su as a major issue facing the DPP,
emphasizing that the split is real, despite public denials.
Hsiao's own undisguised support for Su is evidence of the
split.


4. (C) A number of DPP leaders and independent observers
have told AIT that the December local elections could help
determine who the DPP 2008 presidential nominee will be.
According to DPP Polling Director Wu Hsiang-jung, Su is under
tremendous pressure to deliver a victory to the party in the
December city/county chief elections. If Su fails to do so,
Wu argued, he will have no choice but to resign his party
chairmanship. (Note: The unexpected DPP victory in the May
14 National Assembly election gave Su, who had planned to
resign if the DPP lost, a new lease on life as Chair and as
presidential hopeful. End Note.)


5. (C) While Hsieh has not publicly criticized Su, he has
stated on several occasions that he himself is also under
enormous pressure because everything he does is judged in
terms of 2008. As an indication of the pressures Hsieh is
under, DPP Deputy Secretary General Yen Wan-ching took an
indirect swipe at Premier Hsieh when he told AIT that the
government,s hard line on negotiations on fruit sale to
Mainland China "is completely wrong" because it could hurt
DPP chances in the December local elections.

President Chen Holds His Cards Close
--------------


6. (C) President Chen has refrained from giving any
indication of which of the two front runners he prefers for

2008. It is not even clear that Chen, in fact, prefers
either man. Academia Sinica analyst Wu Chung-shu, who has
close ties with the DPP, told AIT that Chen personally
prefers SecGen Yu Shyi-kun, who has been deeply loyal to Chen
over the years. While DPP legislator Hong Chi-chang
confirmed that preference, he also told the Deputy Director
that barring unforeseen developments between now and 2007, he
expects either Hsieh or Su to become the party's 2008
presidential nominee.


7. (C) Nonetheless, Chen has carefully struck a balance
between Su and Hsieh since January 2005, when he selected the
two men to serve as DPP Chair and Prime Minister, the two
most prominent positions in party and government, but
difficult positions highly susceptible to failure. Chen has,
moreover, from time to time alternately criticized and
praised the two men. At Su's January inauguration as Party
Chair, Chen praised Su for being a leader who pushes forward
(Su's campaign slogan when he ran for Taipei County
Magistrate was "chong-chong-chong," meaning "push, push,
push," a play on the last character in his name). Chen then
told him not to be "too pushy," a statement immediately
understood by Taiwan observers as a put-down of Su.
Similarly, Chen harshly and publicly criticized Hsieh last
month for the Cabinet,s inefficient flood relief after
Typhoon Haitong, but then turned around and praised him the
next day for his leadership of the Executive Yuan. Last
week, in another apparent move to show that he has not
decided who he will support for the party's 2008 nomination,
Chen convened the fourth of his meetings with local DPP
leaders, excluding senior party leaders, notably Su and Hsieh.


8. (C) Comment: With over two years to go before the DPP
formally selects its nominee for the 2008 presidential race,
it is still early in the game and much can change. While the
December local elections could be a bellwether of nomination
trends, they could just as easily prove less than decisive.
If, for example, the DPP maintains or gains ground in the
December elections, both Su and Hsieh would likely try to
claim credit -- Su for leading the party to victory, Hsieh
for making the party look good through his work as premier.
If, on the other hand, the DPP falters, Su and Hsieh will
likely rush to blame the other for not fulfilling his
responsibilities. In this way, the DPP nomination battle
would remain open down to the wire, a situation that would
delight no one more than President Chen, helping him to stave
off his lame duck goblins.
PAAL