WANG JIN-PYNG CUTS OFF FROM NEW KMT CHAIR MA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003179

SIPDIS

WASHINGTON PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/28/2015
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: WANG JIN-PYNG CUTS OFF FROM NEW KMT CHAIR MA
YING-JEOU, FOCUSES ON 2008 PRESIDENTIAL RACE

REF: TAIPEI 3058

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas H. Paal, Reason 1.4 b


1. (C) Summary. Following his crushing defeat by Taipei
Mayor Ma Ying-jeou in the July 16 KMT Chair election,
embittered Legislative Yuan (LY) Speaker Wang Jin-pyng has
cut contact and cooperation with Ma. Wang, however, still
holds out hope that he can win the KMT 2008 presidential
nomination. His strategy to effect this is to force party
"outsider" Ma to run the party and organize the party's
year-end local elections on his own, while Wang concentrates
on running the LY and pursing a "southern strategy" to shore
up his base in southern Taiwan. If (when, in Wang's
expectation) Ma founders, Wang will be there to pick up the
pieces, inheriting both party leadership and presidential
nomination. End Summary.

Not Over Till It's Over
--------------


2. (C) Chiang Min-chin, campaign manager and spokesperson
for Wang Jin-pyng's KMT Chair campaign, acknowledged that
Wang and his close supporters were shocked by the extent of
Wang's election loss (28 percent to Ma's 72 percent, see
reftel). Chiang told AIT that Wang nevertheless believes he
still has a chance to achieve, by circuitous route, the
party's 2008 presidential nomination. To this end, Chiang
meets almost daily to devise a strategy for winning the 2008
KMT presidential nomination. This may be a long shot, Chiang
acknowledged, but he is convinced it has a chance. Chiang,
who studied political science at SUNY/Albany (Ph.D.),said
that he modeled the plan that he proposed to Wang and Wang
accepted, on President Nixon's experience -- 1960
presidential loss, 1962 California gubernatorial defeat, 1968
presidency.


3. (C) Under this plan to "reproduce Nixon", Wang will cut
off completely from Ma and let Ma run the party and the Dec.
3 local elections on his own. (Chiang called this
"sabotaging" Ma, apparently through non-cooperation.) Given
that Ma has already publicly pledged that the KMT under his
leadership will win a majority of the 23 county magistrate
and city mayoral positions at stake in that election, failure
to meet this goal could be viewed as a major set back for Ma
and compromise his leadership of the party and his
presidential prospects. Meanwhile, Wang will focus his
attention on running the Ly and reestablishing his support
base in southern Taiwan. The objective of this strategy is
to let Ma, the party "outsider" with few close advisors,
self-destruct, leaving Wang to inherit both party leadership
and the KMT nomination in 2008. This strategy, Chiang
explained, will also entail extensive public relations work,
Chiang said, to alter Wang,s image as a corrupt party
insider. When AIT pressed Chiang on what Wang would do if
this strategy failed to win the 2008 KMT presidential
nomination, Chiang said simply that Wang was practical
(wushi) and would accept the vice presidential nomination and
run with Ma as presidential candidate.

Familiar Strategy
--------------


4. (C) The Wang strategy described by Prof. Chiang is
similar to one that he worked out for another political
leader whom he advises -- Vice President Annette Lu
(Hsiu-lien). Chiang told AIT in February that, in the face
of strong competition from the dynamic and charismatic
Premier Frank Hsieh and DPP Chair Su Tseng-chang, VP Lu had
decided to lay low and bide her time in hopes that the "two
kings" would (politically) kill each other off. Chiang noted
to AIT the signs of growing tension and competition between
Hsieh and Su in recent weeks. (Note: On July 25, VP Lu
publicly stated that she will not take questions on running
for the presidency.)

Comment: Last Man Standing
--------------


5. (C) The plan Prof. Chiang designed for Speaker Wang to
attain the 2008 KMT presidential nomination is a long shot at
best and entirely dependent on Ma stumbling. The wild card
in Wang's plan may be the current Chair, Lien Chan, and
whether Lien pressures Wang to work with Ma for the sake of
the party. DPP leaders are much more respectful of -- and
worried about -- Mayor Ma's potential as KMT Chair than are
Wang and Chiang. A China Times public opinion poll last
week, moreover, shows Ma leading Su and Hsieh 47-19 and 44-20
percent, respectively. Presidential Office Deputy Secretary
General James Huang told the Deputy Director on July 27 that
he fully expects Ma to establish full control over the party
in the near future and to employ the same kind of unorthodox
"outsider" campaign strategy for the presidency that he did
for the KMT Chair. While a Ma presidential candidate would
almost certainly opt for a local Taiwanese (bendiren) as his
Vice Presidential candidate, Huang rejected Wang as a
possibility.
PAAL