TAIWAN-JAPAN FISHING DISPUTE NOT HINDERING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003160

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/26/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV ASEC TW
SUBJECT: TAIWAN-JAPAN FISHING DISPUTE NOT HINDERING
SECURITY TIES

REF: TAIPEI 2530

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Taiwan and Japanese officials insist that
their fishing dispute will not affect Tokyo-Taipei security
ties or their bilateral relationship. Both sides are
preparing for another round of talks in Tokyo on July 29, but
neither is optimistic there will be a breakthrough because
significant gaps remain despite several years of
negotiations. Taiwan officials and Japanese diplomats note
that domestic pressure and lawmakers on both sides eager to
politicize the issue are also complicating negotiations.
However, both sides assure AIT that they will not allow the
dispute to hamper Taipei-Tokyo ties and have agreed to put
aside sovereignty issues and focus on expanding the joint
fisheries area under dispute (Reftel). Taipei is quickly
seeking to diffuse the domestic row over the dispute by
urging Legislative Yuan (LY) members to temper their
political maneuvering and dispatching senior officials to
meet with the fishermen to ensure they do not escalate
tensions ahead of the talks on Friday. End summary.

Little Optimism for July 29 Talks
--------------


2. (C) Taiwan and Japanese officials believe there is little
reason for optimism when the two sides meet in Tokyo on July
29 for another round of talks. Japan Interchange Association
(JIA) Director of Economic Affairs Masahiko Sugita suggested
there is little hope for a breakthrough since both sides are
still very far apart after 14 meetings since 1996. Taiwan
National Security Council (NSC) Senior Advisor for Asia
Affairs, Lin Cheng-wei, told AIT that Taipei did work out
some concessions for the July 29 talks in the nine-point
package presented to Japan on July 12, most notably the
proposal to put aside sovereignty claims and focus on the
issue of fishing rights. Lin said that NSC Senior Advisor
Lin Jin-chang, a native of Ilan with family ties to the
fishing industry, directly negotiated this concession with
the Ilan/Suao fishermen. However, Lin is pessimistic that a
compromise can be achieved in Tokyo because he expects Japan
to reject Taiwan's latest proposal, which encourages Japan to
accept a larger fishing zone for Taiwan. He told AIT he is
already working on a new compromise, including a proposal to
jointly monitor the disputed waters between Taiwan and Japan,
which will be introduced during future talks if negotiations
in Tokyo fail.

Domestic Pressure Complicating Talks
--------------


3. (C) Officials in both Taiwan and Japan are grappling with
domestic and political pressure which is complicating ongoing
talks to resolve the dispute. JIA's Sugita said that Tokyo
is dealing with objections from Okinawa-based Diet members
and explained that the Japanese Ministry of Agriculture,
Forestry, and Fisheries (MAFF) has bowed to their pressure,
complicating efforts to find a common formula to solve the
dispute. Sugita added that during Japanese Diet member
Hirosato Nakatsugawa's July 19-21 visit to Taiwan,
Nakatsugawa personally met with President Chen Shui-bian to
discuss the dispute and complained that the Taiwan fishing
boats continue to enter Japanese-claimed waters and urged
Taipei to make more concessions.


4. (C) On the Taiwan side, Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA)
James Liao from the Taiwan-Japan Relations Task Force
lamented that Taiwan lawmaker efforts to politicize the issue
are also pressuring Taipei. He said the most troublesome
group has been the Pan-Blue LY members, who demand that the
government cooperate with the PRC to counter Japan.
Vice-Foreign Minister Michael Kau added that tensions remain
high and that the Pan-Blue politicians and their antics in
June (Reftel) have whipped up anti-Japanese sentiment among
the fishing community and the broader Taiwan populace. JIA's
Sugita also noted that he fears political posturing by Taiwan
politicians in preparation for Taiwan's year-end local
elections might further hamper future negotiations.

Both Sides Seek to Diffuse Dispute
--------------

5. (C) Both sides are working to ensure the fishing dispute
does not influence the larger Taiwan-Japan relationship.
NSC's Asia Affairs Lin told AIT that Tokyo has been very
responsive to Taiwan's concerns and that Japanese officials
assured him that Tokyo does not want the fishing dispute to
hinder security or political cooperation. JIA's Sugita
explained that Japan views very positively Taipei's efforts
to downplay the fishing dispute at home and willingness to
put aside sovereignty issues and focus on the negotiations.
Tokyo, he added, is also working hard to ensure the fishing
dispute does not affect Taipei-Tokyo bilateral ties.


6. (C) Presidential Office Deputy Secretary-General James
Huang told AIT that he has little hope for significant
progress in the coming round of talks. He emphasized that
Taiwan wants to minimize disagreements with Japan, but it is
not willing to make concessions on sovereignty issues or on
the determination of which topographical features are
"islands" that would justify Japan's delineation of an
economic zone. He re-emphasized that Taiwan's objective is
to avoid conflict or concession with Japan while eliminating
any opportunity for the Pan-Blue opposition to foment unrest
among Taiwan fishermen.


7. (C) Vice-Foreign Minister Kau said that while tensions
among both sides are high in the disputed fishing area as
incursions and expulsions continue, progress is being made.
Taiwan will have its Ministry of Interior play a leading role
in the talks to handle the boundary issues. It will work
hard, however, to keep Taiwan fishermen from directly
participating in the talks. Taiwan was unhappy with the
precedent Japan set of including Japanese fishing
representatives in an earlier round. Taipei fears including
fishing representatives will make it harder to reduce
tensions.


8. (C) Kau said Defense Minister Lee Jye will personally go
to the Ilan-Suao area to ensure the fisherman do not do
anything to sabotage the talks. While MOFA's Liao noted that
MOFA is taking the unusual step of visiting LY members to
encourage them to temper their political rhetoric and to
explain to them the delicate nature of the talks. Liao
assessed that MOFA's efforts are having a positive effect on
the LY members, but lamented how difficult it has been
because the lawmakers want press coverage and seek to use the
dispute for their own political gain.

Comment: Domestic Politics Main Driver
--------------


9. (C) By sidestepping the sovereignty issue, both sides may
be moving towards an agreement that reduces the risk of
clashes between Taiwan fishing boats and Japanese patrol
boats. Despite this agreement, it appears that neither side
is willing to make the compromises necessary to close a deal
anytime soon. They fear too much of a concession will
provoke outrage by fishing groups and politicians on both
sides. Taiwan's DPP government feels it can ill afford to
give the highly organized fisherman and their Pan-Blue
backers an opportunity to protest, which explains the
government's campaign to soothe Pan-Blue LY members and the
fishermen before the June 29 talks. Both Japan and Taiwan
may have concluded that getting through this round without
sharp domestic reaction is the best they can hope for before
regrouping and holding another round of talks.
PAAL