Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05TAIPEI3132
2005-07-25 08:39:00
UNCLASSIFIED
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Cable title:  

MEDIA REACTION: RENMINBI REVALUATION, CROSS-

Tags:  OPRC KMDR KPAO TW 
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 TAIPEI 003132 

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD -
ROBERT PALLADINO
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: RENMINBI REVALUATION, CROSS-
STRAIT RELATIONS, PENTAGON'S REPORT ON CHINA MILITARY
POWER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 TAIPEI 003132

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD -
ROBERT PALLADINO
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: RENMINBI REVALUATION, CROSS-
STRAIT RELATIONS, PENTAGON'S REPORT ON CHINA MILITARY
POWER


1. Summary: Amid the extensive coverage of local
politics and the return of an injured Taiwan super-
model from China to Taiwan, the major Chinese language
Taipei dailies also spent pages July 23-25 reporting on
the impact of the revalued Renminbi on Taiwan,
President Chen's offer to attend this year's APEC
Leaders' Summit in South Korea and meet with Chinese
President Hu Jintao, the cross-Strait talks scheduled
for July 27 on selling Taiwan fruit to China, and the
car bombs in Egypt. The centrist "China Times,"
interestingly, spent almost the whole of its second
page July 25 discussing the Donald Keyser case and the
interaction between Taiwan's and Washington's
intelligence agencies over the past year. The
newspaper also carried a news story on the same page
introducing U.S. Army Colonel Albert Willner, who will
come to Taiwan in August to take on the job as head of
AIT's Liaison Affairs Section.


2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, several
newspapers continued to editorialize on Beijing's move
to revalue the Renminbi. An editorial in the pro-
unification "United Daily News" said Beijing's move has
unveiled new changes to the world economy, while an
editorial in the centrist "China Times" called the move
similar to Taiwan's own experiences. An editorial in
the limited-circulation, pro-independence, English-
language "Taipei Times," however, expressed concern
about the possible speed of capital outflow from Taiwan
to China created by the Renminbi revaluation. With
regard to President Chen's proposal to attend the APEC
summit and meet with Chinese President Hu Jintao, a
commentary in the "United Daily News" called it a chess
move that is meant as a show for viewers inside and
outside Taiwan rather than a part of a real chess game
with Beijing. Two editorials and one commentary
continued the discussion of the Pentagon's annual
report on China's military power that was released last
week. A commentary in the limited-circulation, pro-
independence, English-language "Taipei Times" and an
editorial in the limited-circulation, pro-independence,
English-language "Taiwan News" both called the
Pentagon's report a wake-up call to the international

community that Taiwan is not the only potential victim
of Beijing's missile development and military threats.
An editorial in the limited-circulation, conservative,
pro-unification, English-language "China Post," on the
other hand, said Washington now views Beijing as a
competitor and a potential enemy. End summary.


1. Renminbi Revaluation

A) "One Pebble Splashes High Waves: Renminbi's
Appreciation Has Unveiled New Changes to the World
Economy"

The pro-unification "United Daily News" [circulation:
600,000] editorialized (7/23):

". The significance of [last week's] Renminbi
revaluation is manifested in two aspects, and the first
is in the political aspect. No matter whether the
Beijing authorities admit it or not, mainland China's
announcement to appreciate the Renminbi prior to
Chinese President Hu Jintao's planned visit to the
United States has provided essential bargaining chips
to the Bush administration and has removed pressure
from the protectionists inside the United States. Such
a move was also made in an attempt [for Beijing] to
further strengthen its political ties with the United
States. In addition, Beijing intended to use this move
to send a clear message to the international community,
expressing its willingness in shouldering certain
responsibility for the imbalanced global economy and
its interest in sharing the obligations of a major
member in the global economic system. In the meantime,
Beijing also wanted to remove any barriers that might
block its plan to deepen its relationships with major
international economic organizations.

"The other aspect is the reform of [Beijing's] exchange
rate system. When compared to the fact that it is
generally acknowledged by the international society
that the Renminbi was undervalued by more than ten
percent, the appreciation of only two percent was
really nothing. But the critical point lies in the
change of the Renminbi exchange system, which has
scrapped the peg to the dollar in favor of a basket of
currencies of those major trading partners of mainland
China. The move has created immense possibilities for
the future direction of the Renminbi. . Mainland
China's money exchange policy will enjoy greater
flexibility in the future, so will the fluctuation of
the Renminbi. Such a development will bring about
various possible impacts for mainland China's economy
and for the regional or even the global economies. ."

B) "Reform of the Renminbi Exchange System Is Actually
a Replica of Taiwan's Experience"

The centrist, pro-status quo "China Times"
[circulation: 600,000] observed in an editorial (7/23):

". Beijing's timing to appreciate the Renminbi was
perfect and the world's responses to the move were all
positive. The current small-scale appreciation of the
Renminbi will be conducive to readjusting the
imbalanced economy of mainland China as well as that of
the other countries in the world. Several stocks that
focus on China's market of domestic demand and whose
profits are valued in the Renminbi are those that are
mostly benefited by the Renminbi revaluation. But it
was bad news for the Taiwan firms that are based in
Taiwan and have their products manufactured on the
mainland and exported to the United States. In the
short term, the New Taiwan dollar and other Asian
currencies will be lifted by the Yuan's revaluation,
but their appreciation range will be much lower than
that of the Renminbi, so Taiwan people need not panic
about it."

C) "Yuan Changes Could Speed Outflows"

The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times"
[circulation: 30,000] commented in an editorial (7/25):

"The timing of China's decision last week to revalue
its currency and allow it to fluctuate against a basket
of currencies came as a surprise, despite widespread
expectations that it would eventually happy. The move
does not, however, mark a complete end to China's
decade-long peg to the US dollar, but rather the start
of a new currency regime. .

"While the impact of the yuan's 2 percent revaluation
will take time to assess, the issue of potential
capital outflows to China from Taiwan has also caught
the attention of the Mainland Affairs Council. Last
week the Cabinet said it would monitor the potential
impact on the export sector and help small and medium-
sized enterprises hedge against the risk of currency
fluctuations.

"As China is run by an opaque regime, its next move
regarding the yuan cannot be predicted. For democratic
economies such as Taiwan, the change in the yuan's
value has become a regional and global issue we have to
face."


2. Cross-Strait Relations

"The Chess Move of Bian-Hu Meeting Was Simply a Gesture
Made for the Eyes of the [Local and International]
Spectators"

Journalist Huang Ya-shih noted in the "United Notes"
column of the pro-unification "United Daily News"
[circulation: 600,000] (7/24):

". The move [by President Chen Shui-bian] to fly a
[test] balloon of a `meeting between Chen and Chinese
President Hu Jintao' can show the international
community and the Taiwan businessmen that favor the
three links across the Taiwan Strait Chen's efforts in
resuming the cross-Strait dialogue. Also, the harm
that such a proposal would do to the feelings of
[Chen's] pro-independence supporters will be minimum
because China has already turned down the conditions
set by Chen for his meeting with Hu. Every time when
Beijing relentlessly turned down Taipei's offer, it
would mean an opportunity for the Bian administration
to accumulate its advantages that can be used to
harshly criticize China's `haughtiness' [toward
Taiwan].

"Over the past few months, Chen has kept on talking
about the `Bian-Hu meeting.' He first threw out
remarks like `hoping to invite Hu to visit Taiwan,'
then said that he was willing to meet [with Hu] in a
`third country.' The statement was later followed by
Chen's articulation that he hoped they could `meet in
the United States' in August or September. The latest
version was that [Chen hoped he and Hu could] meet at
the APEC summit. The topic regarding the Bian-Hu
meeting that has been repeatedly thrown out [over the
past few months] has managed to keep the heat of cross-
Strait issue, but in reality, the progress on this
issue is zero and remains to be static.

"As a result, when people view Chen's chess move of the
`Bian-Hu meeting,' they would prefer to calling it a
move played to be shown to the viewers inside and
outside Taiwan rather than a [real] chess game with
Beijing."

3. Pentagon's Report on China Military Power

A) "Beijing's Expanding Military a Global Issue"

Liu Kuan-teh, a Taipei-based political commentator,
wrote in the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei
Times" [circulation: 30,000] (7/25):

". The Pentagon report is a wake-up call to the
international community that Taiwan is not the only
potential victim of Beijing's missile development and
military aggrandizement. China's emerging military
threat has extended beyond the Asia-Pacific region to
Russia, Central and Southern Asia, and Australia.

"Even though the Chinese authorities have introduced
the concept of `peaceful rise,' a new term to describe
China's emergence, the notion of the `China threat' is
by no means limited to the Taiwan Strait.

"In pursuing engagement with China, the international
community, including the US, must state clearly that
safeguarding a strong and democratic Taiwan is in the
interest of US efforts to create peace and prosperity
in the Asia-Pacific region. Only by offering Taiwan
support for continued democratic consolidation and
defense can the impact of the `China threat' be jointly
managed."

B) "Heed Wake-up Call on PRC Military"

The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News"
[circulation: 20,000] noted in an editorial (7/25):

". The [Pentagon's] report shows that Taiwan is not the
only potential victim of Beijing's missile development
and military threats, but that China's expansive
military capability is stretching beyond Asia-Pacific
region to reach into Russia, Central and Southern Asia,
and even Australia.

"Despite the attempt by Beijing authorities to ease
global concerns over its rising military threat under
the guise of its `peaceful rise' slogan, China's
military expansion has clearly become a serious
provocation and a threat to the peace and security of
the entire world as well as to the Taiwan Strait.

"A collective effort must be made by the international
community to both incorporate China into the
international framework and deter Beijing's military
saber-rattling against a democratic and free Taiwan.

"The people of Taiwan must do their part by putting
pressure on the pan-blue legislative majority to face
up to the reality of this threat and cease their
spiteful boycott of plans to purchase necessary
advanced defensive weapons procurements."

C) "Beijing's Rapid Rise Worries Washington"

The conservative, pro-unification, English-language
"China Post" [circulation: 30,000] commented in an
editorial (7/23):

". The message from the [Pentagon's] report is loud and
clear: China is a threat, regional if not global.
Washington now views Beijing as a competitor, not a
partner. Beijing is in fact seen as a potential enemy,
next only to the rogue states like Iran, Iraq and North
Korea. .

"It is evident that Beijing is now in Washington's
cross hairs. It would be better for Beijing to stay
off the U.S. gun sights by assuming a low profile and
refrain from making inflammatory rhetoric. Beijing
should know that the United States, the sole superpower
in the world, needs an enemy, real or imaginary, to
fill the spot vacated by the former Soviet Union.
Beijing should never dream of being a U.S. partner
because it is a communist country and a dictatorship
whose rise poses a threat to U.S. hegemony."

PAAL