PRESIDENT PLANS TO ISSUE NATIONAL SECURITY REPORT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002745

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR CH TW
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT PLANS TO ISSUE NATIONAL SECURITY REPORT


Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: National Security Council (NSC) Secretary
General Chiou I-jen announced on June 17 that President Chen
Shui-bian would release the first annual National Security
Report later in the summer. Chiou told AIT that the report
would be prepared by the NSC and cover foreign policy,
defense, cross-Strait relations, economics, and domestic
issues, including disaster relief. NSC and Executive Yuan
(EY) officials reject media speculation that the report
represents an attempt by Chiou to undermine the authority of
Premier Frank Hsieh, who is responsible for issuing the
government's formal national policy address at the start of
the Legislative Yuan's (LY) regular biannual sessions.
Whether intentional or not, the National Security Report will
give the President, and Chiou, a platform to maintain control
over the policy agenda in the final years of Chen's term and
limit Hsieh's ability to use his position to establish an
independent policy line. End Summary.

Comprehensive Security Report
--------------


2. (C) NSC Secretary General Chiou I-jen announced on June 17
that President Chen would soon issue Taiwan's first-ever
"National Security Report." Chiou said that the report would
cover five topics: foreign policy, defense, cross-Strait
relations, economics/finance, and domestic issues. Chiou
told AIT subsequently that the "domestic issues" referred
primarily to such things as the government's response to
major natural disasters and public health crises. Chiou said
the report would cover both developments over the past year
as well as the government's strategy for the coming
two-to-four years. While no firm date has been set for the
release of the report, Chiou said the draft is not likely to
be fully cleared until August. Once the President has
approved the language, he will publicly unveil it at a formal
NSC meeting.


3. (C) Chiou told AIT that the NSC's three Deputy Secretaries
General and five Senior Advisors have taken the lead on
various portions of the draft report. They, in turn, have
been authorized to consult relevant government agencies and
outside academic experts for input. NSC officials have been
reluctant to discuss the contents of their own portions of
the report with AIT, noting that the draft is still in the
early clearance stages.

NSC-EY Battle?
--------------


4. (C) Response from the media and opposition parties to the
planned report has been generally positive. A number of
commentators have compared the proposed report to the U.S.
President's annual State of the Union Address. However,
Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) legislator and former NSC
Senior Advisor Lai Hsin-yuan dismissed the proposed report,
telling AIT that it is simply another Chen-style PR stunt.
Some media analysts have also speculated that the planned
report is an outgrowth of growing policy competition between
Chiou and Premier Frank Hsieh. Many of the issues to be
covered under the proposed National Security Report duplicate
subjects that are part of the Premier's National Policy
Report delivered to the LY at the start of each regular
session. Some analysts have suggested that Chiou is seeking
to pre-empt Hsieh's September LY report by releasing the
President's report in August. Constitutionally, the
President, through the NSC process, has the lead on national
security, cross-Strait, and defense, while the Premier,
through the EY, is responsible for economic and domestic
policy.


5. (C) Chiou dismissed accusations that the NSC is seeking to
undermine Hsieh's authority, noting that the NSC has been
studying the idea of an annual National Security Report for
at least two years, an assertion confirmed separately by
former NSC Senior Advisor Lai. EY Secretary General Lee
Ying-yuan was equally dismissive of media speculation over a
Chiou-Hsieh rift, asserting to AIT (in Chiou's presence) that
rumors of internal tensions were manufactured by media
outlets looking to make news. (Comment: While NSC officials
have privately told AIT that there is a growing sense of
competition between the NSC and EY over major policy issues,
coordination between the two organizations over the past five
months, particularly at the SecGen level, has been better
than we have witnessed at any time in the past three years.
End Comment.)

Comment: Managing the Message
--------------


6. (C) Whether intentional or not, the National Security
Report is likely to serve as an effective tool for the
President to maintain a measure of control over the
government's policy agenda in his final years in office.
With some political pundits already predicting that Chen will
enter the lame duck phase of his presidency by the beginning
of 2006, there will be a growing tendency by the media and
political insiders to look for signs that Premier Hsieh is
creating his own independent policy line ahead of the 2008
presidential primary. By establishing a mechanism to lay
down markers on major policy issues, including those within
Hsieh's constitutional purview, Chen, and by extension,
Chiou, may be able to set limits on the Premier's policy
autonomy.
PAAL