TAIPEI SEEKS TO DEFUSE FISHING DISPUTE WITH JAPAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 002704

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR CH TW
SUBJECT: TAIPEI SEEKS TO DEFUSE FISHING DISPUTE WITH JAPAN

REF: TAIPEI 2530

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: Taiwan is seeking to quickly settle a recent
row with Japan over a disputed fishing zone in waters between
Taiwan and Japan. Taipei says that the two sides are likely
to hold a round of talks in late June/early July to agree on
an expanded joint fisheries area that should mitigate against
future friction. Despite progress on the diplomatic front,
Minister of National Defense (MND) Lee Jye caved into
opposition pressure to dispatch a Taiwan Navy frigate to the
disputed fishing zone to assert Taiwan's claim. Lee and
Legislative Yuan (LY) President Wang Jin-pyng personally took
part in the June 21 cruise that was billed by the media as a
show of force in the face of Japanese bullying. Taiwan
officials accuse Pan-Blue politicians and media outlets of
hijacking the fishing dispute to undermine Japan-Taiwan
relations. Views within Taiwan on Japan are divided sharply
along ethnic lines, making the government particularly
sensitive to the need for resolving the ongoing dispute
quickly. This factor, combined with media and opposition
chest-thumping, has pushed the government to gradually take a
harder public line on the issue than it originally
envisioned. End Summary.


2. (C) Taiwan officials are seeking to find a quick
diplomatic solution over the recent expulsion of Taiwan
fishing boats by Japanese authorities operating between
Taiwan and Okinawa (Reftel). While officials downplay the
strategic significance of the issue, opposition politicians
and media outlets have used the June 8 expulsion of Taiwan
fishing vessels from the disputed area to grandstand against
the government's alleged weakness in dealing with Tokyo.
Pan-Blue legislators characterized MND leaders as defeatists
after a senior officer told LY members that Taiwan could not
win a war with Japan over the territorial dispute. People
First Party (PFP) Defense Committee Co-Chair Lin Yu-fang
threatened to block action on the Special Defense Procurement
Budget if MND did not send vessels to "protect" Taiwan's
fishermen. Pan-Blue legislators denounced the Taiwan Navy
for using ongoing exercises as an excuse for not sending
vessels to the area. Bowing to opposition demands, the
Taiwan Navy dispatched a frigate to the area on June 21 with
MND Minister Lee Jye, LY Speaker (and KMT Chairman candidate)
Wang, and members of the LY Defense Committee on board.

Tempest in a Teapot
--------------


3. (C) Taiwan officials express dismay at politicization of
the issue. Raymond Mou, Senior Advisor to Foreign Minster
Mark Chen, told AIT that the fisheries dispute should be
resolvable fairly quickly once negotiators from the two sides
sit down to discuss the issue. National Security Council
(NSC) Senior Advisor for Asia Affairs Lin Cheng-wei echoed
this view, noting that talks are provisionally set for late
June. Lin complained that the main reason agreement had not
been reached in earlier rounds of fisheries talks was that
both sides, having made the politically symbolic step of
creating a forum for dialogue, preferred to keep the issues
unresolved in order to have an excuse for further meetings.
Lin stated that the main issue left unresolved after the last
14 rounds of Taiwan-Japan fishery talks concerns the size of
a joint fisheries management zone in the area where the
Taiwan boats were expelled on June 8. Taiwan officials say
that there are few Japanese fishing boats that operate in the
area, thus Tokyo's past insistence in limiting the size of
the joint fishing area makes little sense in commercial
terms. Lin added that Taipei is also willing to de-link
fisheries discussions from more sensitive questions of
territorial waters and EEZs in recognition of Tokyo's one
China policy. Lin expressed optimism that Tokyo's desire to
avoid friction with yet another neighbor will convince
Japanese officials to seek a quick settlement favorable to
Taipei's interests.


4. (C) In the immediate aftermath of the June 8 incident,
senior Chen administration officials emphasized publicly that
the issue should be resolved diplomatically and not be used
as an excuse to antagonize a friendly neighbor. However,
Premier Frank Hsieh and other senior officials later adjusted
their public line, touting the government's determination to
protect the rights of Taiwan fishermen in the wake of a
constant barrage of anti-Japan media commentary. Japanese
Interchange Association Deputy Director Hirakoba Hiroto told
AIT that Taiwan officials have privately been apologetic over
the government's recent actions, especially the June 21
dispatch of the frigate, and asked Tokyo to understand that
these actions are only being taken to ease political pressure
on the Taipei government.


5. (C) While Taiwan officials say the media and political
uproar over the fisheries dispute strengthens Taipei's
negotiating position, they privately assert that Taiwan has
no real moral ground to stand on. Col. Yuan Cheng-Pei, the
Taiwan NSC official in charge of Taiwan-Japan pol-mil issues,
told AIT that Japan is justified in taking a hard line
towards Taiwan fishing boats since Taiwan's aggressive
fishing fleet "constantly" violates Japan's territorial
waters. Yuan stated that Taiwan fishing groups are making
such a big deal over the June 8 expulsion only because it was
a rare occasion where their activities fell into a gray area,
allowing the Taiwan fishermen to cynically portray themselves
as victims. Yuan expressed frustration over the media's
distorted coverage of recent events and willingness to create
facts in order to fuel a sense of public crisis.

Ideological Plot?
--------------


6. (C) Other government and ruling party officials suggest
darker motives behind the recent fishing episode. Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) International Affairs Department
Deputy Director Hsieh Huai-huei asserted that Pan-Blue
officials and media outlets have tried to leverage the
episode to drum up anti-Japanese sentiment. Hsieh said that
the Pan-Blue not only wants to undermine warming ties between
Taipei and Tokyo, but also seeks to distract public attention
from the PRC military threat. Other Pan-Green contacts point
out that the Suao fishing association directly involved in
the current standoff is part of a local political faction
headed by a former PFP legislator. Some contacts have also
drawn a link between the political/media frenzy over the
fishing dispute and the high-profile recent trip to Tokyo by
PFP-affiliated aboriginal legislator Kao-Chin Su-mei to
demand that Japan return the spirits of aborigines listed at
the controversial Yasukuni Shrine.


7. (C) The NSC's Lin said that the government is deeply
concerned by attempts by opposition politicians to manipulate
the current fishing dispute for ideological ends. Views
towards Taiwan's relations with Japan are divided sharply
along ethnic lines. Ethnic Taiwanese and Hakka, regardless
of political affiliation, generally see Japan in a positive
light while many Mainlanders and aborigines, for historical
reasons, hold views on Japan similar to those in Mainland
China and Korea. Lin said that the government is
particularly concerned that the opposition's anti-Japan
campaign will impact on morale within the Taiwan military,
which remains overwhelmingly Mainlander and has a historical
enmity towards Japan. Local papers have quoted unnamed
Taiwan military officials grumbling that a pro-Japan clique
in the NSC is preventing the military from taking a harder
line towards Japan over the fishing dispute.


8. (C) Not all Pan-Blue officials have joined the anti-Japan
bandwagon. Former KMT Premier and Chief of the General Staff
Hau Pei-tsun criticized MND's decision to dispatch a frigate
laden with political figures as meaningless showmanship
(Comment: Hau's criticism may have been a dig at KMT Chairman
candidate Wang. Hau is the only KMT elder supporting Wang's
reformist rival Ma Ying-jeou. End Comment). Former KMT
legislator Apollo Chen (Shuei-sheng) told AIT that the
fishing episode will "only increase the public's perception
that the KMT has become a willing partner for Beijing in its
efforts to sabotage Taiwan's relations with Washington and
Tokyo." Chen warned that the KMT's actions are likely to be
used against it in future presidential elections.

Silver Lining?
--------------


9. (C) Some observers say the Pan-Blue chest-thumping over
the fishing dispute could have some unintended benefits for
the government, for example by easing the standoff over
passage of the Special Defense Procurement Budget. National
Cheng-chi University Professor Chao Kuo-tsai told AIT that
PFP legislators may be able to build a case for their deep
Blue supporters that Taiwan needs to upgrade its defenses in
order to resist Japan, not the PRC. Chao commented that MND
Minister Lee's willingness to accommodate Pan-Blue demands,
despite resistance from DPP officials and legislators, may
have been a critical gesture to the Pan-Blue ahead of a
possible summer special session to discuss the Special
Defense Procurement Budget. The NSC's Lin noted that another
positive side-effect of the recent episode would be Japanese
acceptance of Taipei's request to establish operational
channels between the Taiwan and Japanese Coast Guards. Lin
said that one of the reasons the June 9 episode got out of
hand was that the two sides had no way to communicate quickly
enough to take measures to prevent a more public standoff.

Comment: Domestic Politics in the Driver's Seat
-------------- --


10. (C) Neither Taipei nor Tokyo wants a confrontation over
fishing rights in the East China Sea and are likely to work
hard to resolve differences over the joint fisheries
management area at the center of the June 8-9 incident. A
diplomatic solution is unlikely to satisfy Taiwan's fishing
industry, which will no doubt be emboldened by recent media
and political support to further push the envelope in waters
controlled by Japan. Media grandstanding has largely
succeeded in forcing the government to take a harder line, at
least in public, towards Japan than it would have otherwise
preferred. In the longer run, however, Japan-bashing is not
likely to be a winning strategy for the Blue camp. While
polls suggest there is public sympathy for the plight of
Taiwan's fishing interests, there is also widespread
pro-Japan sentiment around the island, especially among the
island's ethnic Taiwanese majority.
PAAL