MA CAMPAIGN FALTERING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 002689

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2015
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: MA CAMPAIGN FALTERING


Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou's campaign for the
KMT Chairmanship appears to be faltering, despite Ma's
continued lead in the polls. Early optimism within Ma's camp
has evaporated as the KMT machine, backed by Lien Chan and
his advisors, has mobilized behind Legislative Yuan (LY)
Speaker Wang Jin-pyng. Ma's lack of allies within the party
and among traditional KMT support groups has left his
campaign without money or means to counter Wang's well-oiled
election machine. Ma advisors claim that the Taipei Mayor's
refusal to resort to the sorts of smear tactics employed by
the Wang campaign has also presented a major handicap.
Nevertheless, most outside observers still put their money on
a Ma victory, asserting that there is a silent majority of
KMT voters who will mobilize themselves on July 16 to vote
for Ma. End Summary.

Flagging Morale
--------------


2. (C) Early optimism for an easy Ma victory in the July 16
election for KMT Chairman has been replaced by a growing
sense of dread within the Ma camp. Samuel Wu, Ma's Deputy
Campaign Chairman, told AIT that Ma's election strategy seems
to be falling apart in the face of the well-funded and
aggressively negative campaign waged by Ma's opponent, LY
Speaker Wang Jin-pyng. Ma supporters down play the Mayor's
commanding lead in the polls, noting that the July 16
election will be determined by party members accustomed to
being "mobilized" by well-funded candidates and party
machines. Wu noted that when he visits local chapters around
the island, he finds the vast majority of active KMT members
are generally elderly and less educated, hardly Ma's
strongest demographic.

Asymmetric Warfare
--------------


3. (C) Wang has attempted to neutralize Ma's lead in the
polls by waging a grass-roots organizational campaign that
appeals to key KMT constituencies rather than the average
voter. When he travels around the island, Ma aides complain
that local KMT officials and legislators usually make excuses
not to meet him. In contrast, Wang is constantly working
faction bosses and KMT local officials from ward chiefs to
county executives. Pro-Ma former KMT legislator Apollo Chen
(Shuei-sheng) commented to AIT that these activities support
Wang's main formula for victory -- getting his voters to the
ballot box on July 16. Since there will be fewer than half
of the polling stations available than in regular elections,
the distances voters will need to travel are often
considerably further. When asked why Ma will not provide
transport to his voters, campaign manager Wu stated that
"even if we had the local network to carry out such a plan,
we don't have any money." Wu bemoaned that Ma spent his
entire election war chest in the first two weeks of the
campaign. "Ma didn't realize how hard this was going to be,"
Wu sighed.

Fighting the Power
--------------


4. (C) Another surprise for Ma and his team has been the
openly hostile attitude of the KMT leadership to Ma's bid.
Ma advisor Wu noted that when KMT Chairman Lien Chan hosted a
dinner for the party's National Assembly (NA) members
following the June 8 vote, Lien turned the event into a
virtual campaign rally for Wang. Wu added that as the only
declared Ma supporter among the 117 KMT NA members, he was
openly taunted by Wang supporters, who told him Wu should
abandon Ma's sinking ship while he still had the chance. Wu
said the heckling only ended when Wang finally asked his
supporters to lay off. Wu said that Ma's campaign is keeping
a close eye on how Lien and his aides handle the party's
assets during the campaign. "If they think we may win," Wu
remarked, "we would not be surprised if they started
liquidating the party's assets and squirreling the money
away, leaving us with a bankrupt party on July 17." Wu
commented that relations between the Ma and Wang camps have
turned increasingly hostile. "If we do win, it's going to be
an uphill battle to repair the relationship between the two
of them," Wu added.

We Have Met the Enemy...
--------------


5. (C) While Ma may have been surprised by the vehemence of
KMT establishment resistance, many of his supporters are not
and say that the Mayor should have been better prepared for
the rough-and-tumble world of KMT internal politics. KMT
Taipei City Councilor Chen Yu-mei asserted that a major
reason Ma has failed to secure any major endorsements to date
is that he doesn't ask anyone for them. Even when
legislators and local figures offer to work on his behalf,
Chen continued, Ma declines, saying that he wants to "run a
new style of campaigning" that relies on issues rather than
mobilization. "Even (reformist Taoyuan County Executive)
Eric Chu has refused to endorse Ma," she fumed.


6. (C) Even those Ma aides who endorse his issues-based
strategy assert that the Mayor is losing even on this score.
Campaign manager Wu complained that Wang recently announced
that he would increase the size of the already bloated KMT
bureaucracy if elected. "We have no way to respond to this
sort of populist pandering," Wu complained, "Ma declared at
the outset that his main priority is to rationalize party
operations." Other Ma supporters say that Ma has also
dictated that his supporters should turn the other cheek in
the face of Wang's increasingly negative campaign attacks.
In recent days, Wang has accused Ma of being a Lee Teng-hui
plant, the favorite of the Democratic Progressive Party
(DPP),and an usurper who pushed an unwilling Chairman Lien
Chan out of office. Former legislator Chen said it is only a
matter of time before native Taiwanese Wang plays the ethnic
card against Hong Kong born Ma among KMT voters in southern
Taiwan.


7. (C) Veteran KMT legislator and Ma advisor Wu Ten-yi told
AIT the most dangerous rumor being spread by the anti-Ma camp
is that Wang should get the Chairmanship this time and Ma the
presidential nomination in 2008. "This sounds perfectly
reasonable to your average KMT supporter," Wu commented, "but
anyone who knows how this party really works knows that if
Wang wins, he will ensure that Ma's career is over." Other
Ma aides echo this view, stating that if Ma does lose, they
will start looking for work outside of politics. "The good
thing about people in the Ma camp," campaign manager Wu
remarked, "is that few of us are professional politicians so
we can always go back to our day jobs if it doesn't work out
on July 16."

Ma's Silent Majority?
--------------


8. (C) Plummeting morale among Ma campaign aides
notwithstanding, many outside observers still expect a
comfortable Ma win on July 16 given his overwhelming
popularity among party rank-and-file. DPP Taipei County
Magistrate Lin Hsi-yao told AIT that every single KMT mayor
in his county is actively supporting Wang, but these same
officials say privately they expect a Ma win. "They hate Ma
and are going all out for Wang," Lin remarked, "but they
complain that their supporters will vote for Ma anyway
because Ma has a chance in 2008 and Wang does not." Other
analysts note that in May, charismatic People First Party
(PFP) defector Chou Hsi-wei beat all expectations in the
party's primary for the Taipei County Magistrate, despite the
active opposition of the local KMT machine.

Comment: Losing the Campaign, Winning the Election?
-------------- --------------


9. (C) Ma is clearly losing the campaign in traditional
terms. Wang has dominated the media agenda and lined up
virtually all of the KMT's power brokers around the island
behind his candidacy. Ma's weak attempts to respond to
Wang's negative campaign attacks and his organizational
incompetence raise questions about his qualities as a
politician, but may not necessarily be material to the
current campaign if his image as the default standard-bearer
for 2008 proves to be the decisive factor in the election.
If this is indeed the case, Ma may need to consider carefully
before following his aides' advice to hit back at Wang's
dirty campaign tactics. Relations between the Ma and Wang
camps (and the Ma and Lien camps) are already increasingly
bitter and a decision by Ma to employ the same sorts of
negative attacks could push Ma-Wang relations beyond repair.
Even if Ma wins on July 16, Wang will retain his own LY and
local factional power base and will be in a position to cause
Ma pain for years to come.
PAAL