"THREE-IN-ONE" ELECTION: TAIWAN PARES DOWN AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 002638

SIPDIS

WASHINGTON PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2015
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: "THREE-IN-ONE" ELECTION: TAIWAN PARES DOWN AND
GEARS UP FOR DECEMBER ELECTIONS

REF: TAIPEI 2490

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas H. Paal, Reason 1.4 b


1. (SBU) Summary. Prompted by voter weariness over Taiwan's
plethora of elections, the Executive Yuan (EY) announced that
the December city/county magistrate election will be combined
with two other local elections. These elections should
indicate where Taiwan's fragmented political party system is
going after the constitutional revisions passed last week, in
particularly whether the rickety Pan-Blue and Pan-Green
alliances might coalesce into a predominantly two-party
political system. The elections may also be an early
bellwether of political trends and party organization on the
road to the combined presidential-legislative election in
March 2008. End Summary.

Combating Electoral Ennui
--------------


2. (U) Rising voter impatience over Taiwan's overloaded
election calendar -- this is the second year in a row with
two major island-wide elections -- compounded by the
historically low 23 percent voter turn-out in the May 14
National Assembly election, convinced the government to
reconfigure the series of elections facing Taiwan over the
next year. On June 8, the Central Election Commission (CEC)
formally announced that the city mayor/county magistrate
elections will be held on December 3, and these will be
combined into a single island-wide election with county
council and township elections originally scheduled for 2006.
The CEC explained that most voters support this combination
to simplify voting and reduce costs. The most significant
elections will be for the 23 city mayors and county
magistrates, which many observers see as an early indicator
of party and leadership trends for the likely combined
presidential-legislative elections in late 2007/early 2008.
The December elections will include all 18 counties and five
municipalities -- Keelung, Hsinchu, Taichung, Chiayi, and
Tainan. (Note: Elections for "Special Municipalities" Taipei
and Kaohsiung will be held separately in late 2006.)


3. (C) Premier Frank Hsieh (Chang-ting) failed in his
earlier, March 2005, effort to push through this three-in-one
reform to rationalize and simplify Taiwan's complex,
multi-layered election system. The outrage his proposal
stirred among entrenched politicians, not least within his
own Democratic Progressive Party (DPP),forced him to
retrench and stop pushing the idea. DPP legislators at the
time told AIT that the new DPP Chairman, Su Tseng-chang --
Hsieh's foremost competitor for the 2008 DPP presidential
nomination -- saw this as an early 2008 campaign thrust by
Hsieh to undermine him (Su) and push him from the political
limelight. The unprecedentedly low voter turn-out on May 14,
however, DPP Deputy SecGen Yan Wan-chin told AIT, renewed
momentum for Hsieh's drive to simplify Taiwan's election
system and encourage higher voter turn-out. By this time,
Yan noted, Chairman Su had an election victory (May 14) under
his belt and was more amenable to the combination idea
(besides which, President Chen made it clear that he was
fully on board). So, the CEC moved immediately following the
National Assembly to announce the change.

Out of the Starting Block
--------------


4. (C) The four major political parties -- DPP, Kuomintang
(KMT),People First Party (PFP),and Taiwan Solidarity Union
(TSU),are moving to nominate candidates for the city/county
magistrate elections (local party organizations will handle
council and local elections):

-- DPP: Has announced a slate of 16 candidates -- 10
uncontested and 6 via the DPP's unique primary system (a
blend of direct voting and public opinion polls, worth 30 and
70 percent, respectively). For the remaining 7 races, the
DPP is deliberating whether to nominate its own candidates
for traditionally &pan-blue8 districts (Hsinchu, Miaoli,
Hualian, Kinmen and Lienchiang Counties and Keelung City) or
"give" these to its coalition partner, TSU.

-- TSU: Is going slow on candidate selection pending
discussions with DPP following the DPP announcement of its
candidate slate.
-- KMT: Is nominating in three tranches, beginning with
traditional KMT "top-down" candidate selection and ending
with a new primary system modeled on that of the DPP. (Note:
DPP Deputy SecGen Yan exulted to AIT that the KMT "is copying
our primary system of direct voting and public opinion
polling." End Note.) After the KMT announces its final group
of candidates on June 22, it will begin discussing possible
candidate coordination with the PFP.

-- PFP: Has nominated seven candidates; PFP SecGen Chin
Chin-sheng told AIT the party will probably make more
nominations in the days ahead, pending the results of his
ongoing discussions with KMT SecGen Lin Feng-cheng.
Indicative of the PFP desire for Pan-Blue coordination,
immediately after announcement of their candidacy, the seven
PFP candidates called for PFP-KMT election coordination.

A Question of Cooperation
--------------


5. (C) Each party is also jockeying for position with its
respective coalition partner -- Pan-Green's DPP and TSU, and
Pan-Blue's KMT and PFP. While both coalitions fractured
after the December 2004 legislative elections, the
constitutional revisions approved by the National Assembly on
June 7, which will marginalize small political parties (see
ref A),have inspired renewed TSU and PFP interest in
cooperating with their coalition partners. The first such
public discussions by legislators from these two parties, in
fact, occurred on May 29, the day before the National
Assembly opened.


6. (C) DPP Deputy SecGen Yan told AIT that DPP intends to
cooperate with the TSU to ensure only one Pan-Green candidate
runs in each race on December 3, though the TSU threat to run
Annie Lee for Taipei County Magistrate indicates TSU is less
than confident about the promised cooperation. PFP SecGen
Chin told AIT that he is working with KMT SecGen Lin
Feng-cheng on possible cooperation on the December 3
elections, though it is too early to tell whether this will
work out, he noted, particularly given Lin's insistence that
discussions begin only after all KMT nominations are
announced June 22. Chin noted that the chances of PFP-KMT
cooperation might increase after the July 17 KMT Chair
election, referring to candidate Wang Jin-pyng's statement
that his top priority as Chair will be to coalesce with the
PFP.

Comment: Taiwan's Emerging Political Style
--------------


7. (C) The historically low voter turn-out in the May 14
National Assembly election was decisive in advancing one of
Premier Hsieh's reform agendas -- reducing the excessive
number of elections in Taiwan. The composite "three-in-one"
December 3 election will be the first indicator of Taiwan's
new post-constitutional reform political landscape. Seeing
the handwriting on the wall of impending marginalization, TSU
and PFP have become noticeably more eager to reach
accommodations toward their respective coalition partners.
KMT and DPP, on the other hand, are playing it coy,
presumably sensing desperation in their junior partners.
While the PFP can still pull votes from the KMT, its
precipitous decline (from 18 percent approval ratings in 2001
to 6 percent vote on May 14) has reduced its appeal and given
the KMT greater leverage in the relationship. Nevertheless,
both TSU and PFP have enough political "stars" remaining in
their candidate portfolio to play havoc with their coalition
partners on December 3. In Keelung City, for example,
KMT-PFP non-cooperation on a single mayoral candidate would
probably repeat the 1997 scenario in which each candidate
"killed off" the other, leaving a weak DPP candidate with the
win. At this still early date, however, KMT and DPP appear
only willing to give dubious "gifts" to their coalition
partners -- DPP, for example, wants to "give" TSU the
Pan-Green slot for Jinmen and Matsu magistracies, both solid
"Blue" territory. In response, TSU is threatening to run
former President Lee Teng-hui's daughter, Annie Lee, for
magistrate in the December 3 "crown jewel" -- Taipei County.


8. (C) The December 3 elections may also be an early
bellwether for Taiwan's 2007/2008 presidential-legislative
election campaign. An important factor in the run up to the
presidential-legislative election will be party leadership.
DPP is led by its highly organized, charismatic SecGen, Su
Tseng-chang, who saved his political hide and even burnished

SIPDIS
his party credentials by pulling victory out of near-certain
defeat for the DPP on May 14. On the other hand, KMT chances
in December will have a major impact on the future political
strength of whoever is elected its Chairman on July 17.
PAAL