PREMIER HSIEH SPEAKS ON CROSS-STRAIT OPENING.

C O N F I D E N T I A L TAIPEI 002595

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/13/2030
TAGS: PREL ETRD TW CH
SUBJECT: PREMIER HSIEH SPEAKS ON CROSS-STRAIT OPENING.

REF: TAIPEI 2566

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal. Reasons E.O. 12958, 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) MAC chairman Joseph Wu sent us Sunday his proposed
text for the Premier's remarks reported reftel. After
opening with a recitation of all the difficulties that the
PRC has posed for cross-Strait contacts, the speech then says
that Taiwan is ready to move forward on cross-Strait charter
cargo flights using the approach that was successful in
arranging the passenger charter flights for the 2005 Chinese
New Year, with each side represented by an industry
association including government transportation officials.
The flights would be "by both sides, in both directions,
without intermediate stops," and Taiwan hopes that the PRC
will have a concrete response. However, the speech makes no
reference to the PRC interest in renewing cross-Strait
charter flights, an omission that Wu told DDIR Monday was
intentional.


2. (C) The speech then recites all the reasons why
agricultural exports to mainland China are both unimportant
to Taiwan economically and difficult to implement. It
mentions that any opening will require detailed consultations
between the Council of Agriculture and the MAC to establish
various regulations and suggests that Premier Hsieh had
already suggested the "International Trade Association," the
Taiwan External Trade Development Council (TAITRA) is very
experienced at such international trade. (Note: TAITRA
Chairman Hsu Chih-jen has taken a strongly negative view on
cross-Strait economic relations both in his current position
and in his previous job as a senior official in the
Presidential Office. Hsu is Chen Shui-bian's college
roommate. End Note.). Finally on PRC tourists, the speech
notes that the PRC has restricted the number of tourists it
has allowed to travel to Taiwan and that there are a wide
variety of difficult issues that would need to be resolved
before tourism could be expanded, including perhaps requiring
tourists to post a security bond. This issue too will require
extensive interagency coordination. The speech then closes by
expressing a hope for a positive PRC response.


3. (C) MAC Chairman Wu insisted that the speech was intended
to express a positive opening toward the PRC. He said that
Taiwan is prepared to apply the "Macau Model" for talks on
all three subjects, and he is confident that the PRC will
understand that. Wu added that the PRC State Council's
Taiwan Affairs office is scheduled to have a press conference
on June 15, and he hoped that they would express a readiness
to use the "Macau Model." If they do, then it should be
possible to make progress fairly rapidly. If, on the other
hand, they insist on picking which Taiwan organizations they
will deal with, that will be a sign of difficulties.


4. (C) When DDIR pointed out that he found it very difficult
to find the openness and optimism of Wu's oral presentation
is the bureaucratese of the speech text, Wu said that he did
not expect Hsieh to read the speech directly. Rather he
expected Hsieh to use his usual approach of putting the ideas
in his own words, stressing how these approaches fit into his
emphasis on reconciliation (he-xie). In fact, Wu had urged
him to take exactly that kind of extemporaneous approach,
which would produce a much more upbeat message.


5. (C) Comment. It is impossible to predict how much of this
will actually come across when the speech is finally
delivered later this evening Taipei Time. Since the Premier
knows there are many pro-DPP tourism industries, fruit and
other exporters, and Taishang interested in taking advantage
of the openings, it is possible he will indeed pursue a more
oblique or accommodating tack in the actual speech. We will
report on the speech and reactions Tuesday our time.
PAAL