MA TAKES EARLY LEAD IN KMT RACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 002476

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINR TW
SUBJECT: MA TAKES EARLY LEAD IN KMT RACE


Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: Despite attempts by KMT elders to draft Lien
Chan for a third term, the two candidates for the KMT
chairmanship, Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou and Legislative Yuan
(LY) President Wang Jin-pyng, have begun their official
campaigns in earnest. While Lien is not expected to formally
announce his intentions until June 8, a senior KMT official
told AIT that Lien will relinquish his post, retaining
control only over cross-Strait policy in order to "continue
to cause trouble for Chen Shui-bian." Despite opposition to
Ma's candidacy from KMT stalwarts, including Ma's own father,
the KMT's internal polls indicate that the Taipei Mayor
enjoys a decisive edge in the lead-up to the July 16
election. KMT officials expect a Chairman Ma to set a more
conciliatory tone in relations with the ruling party, and
suggest that he may offer action on the Special Defense
Procurement Budget as an early goodwill gesture. KMT
officials warn, however, that if Ma wins, he will face an
uphill battle to consolidate control over the party,
especially if Lien loyalists try to use their control over
party assets to derail Ma's reform agenda. End Summary.

Lien: Does He Mean It This Time?
--------------


2. (C) The KMT Chairmanship race formally got underway June 1
with a special party Central Standing Committee (CSC) meeting
held to hear candidates Ma Ying-jeou and Wang Jin-pyng
explain their policy visions. The June 1 meeting came amidst
continued media speculation over Lien's intentions regarding
his personal political future. Lien has avoided explicitly
stating his plans for contesting the post, encouraging party
elders and Lien loyalists to continue with their campaign to
press Ma and Wang to withdraw from the race and allow Lien to
be re-elected uncontested. Party elders, including Ma's own
father, have publicly warned that if either Ma or Wang were
elected, the party would collapse into rival factions. In
response to these conflicting messages, Wang has repeatedly
announced his intention to withdraw from the race if Lien
were to seek a third term. Wang told AIT that while he does
not want Lien to stay on, he does "not dare" say anything
negative about Lien for fear that Lien and his supporters
will attempt to smear Wang in the same way they have attacked
Ma over his steadfast refusal to offer Lien an uncontested
third term.

Apparently So
--------------


3. (C) Speculation notwithstanding, KMT Organizational
Affairs Director Liao Feng-te, a Lien loyalist, told AIT that
Lien has already made up his mind to allow for an open
election on July 16 and will make clear his intentions on
June 8. Liao asserted that Lien will use his position as
Chairman of the KMT's National Policy Foundation to maintain
control over cross-Strait policy, but will allow his
successor a free hand over all other elements of KMT
operations. Liao asserted that this plan benefits both Lien
and his replacement. On the one hand, Liao said that Lien
will be able to "continue to cause trouble for Chen
Shui-bian" by unveiling potentially popular PRC economic
concessions he knows Chen will be forced to reject due to
opposition from within his own camp. At the same time, Liao
said that Lien could reduce the burden of the KMT's
fundamentally unpopular policy line on sovereignty and
cross-Strait relations on the party's 2008 presidential
candidate by making Lien the main target of Pan-Green smear
efforts. Ma loyalist and veteran KMT legislator Wu Ten-yi
offered a similar scenario, but disputed claims by Lien
supporters that Lien will play anything more than a symbolic
role in cross-Strait relations. However, long-time Lien
confidante Ding Mou-shih told the AIT Director that Lien
expects to retain a "supervisory" role after stepping down.

Ma By a Mile?
--------------


4. (C) With most KMT officials confident that Lien is on his
way out, attention is turning to the Wang/Ma contest. Liao,
who will oversee the KMT election, said he had no doubt that
Ma will win the Chairmanship despite efforts by political
leaders across the spectrum to sabotage the popular Mayor's
chances. Liao said that Wang is the favorite of the
political elite because he, in one way or another, owes
something to everyone, including Lien, President Chen
Shui-bian, People First Party Chairman James Soong, and
former President Lee Teng-hui. In contrast, Ma would enjoy a
popular mandate that would insulate him from manipulation by
other political actors. According to KMT internal polls,
Liao said that Ma will not only win the KMT election, but
will win in a landslide. Liao said that Wang's hope of
wooing enough Lien's supporters to challenge Ma's lead is
wishful thinking, since the combined support rates for Wang
and Lien are far below Ma's poll numbers.


5. (C) KMT Taipei City Councilor, and Ma supporter, Chen
Yu-mei told AIT that poll numbers may not necessarily
translate into votes on July 16 since the election will be
determined by those who actually cast ballots rather than by
those who talk to pollsters. Chen noted that Wang has been
spending large amount of cash to mobilize local support
networks around the island, a tactic Ma has steadfastly
refused to employ. While Chen did not rule out the
possibility that Wang could buy enough votes to win, she said
her own supporters have reacted negatively to Wang's
organizational offensive. In addition to working the KMT's
grassroots base, Wang has also attempted to enlist members of
the KMT Legislative Yuan (LY) Caucus to mobilize votes.
While most LY members have publicly declared for Wang, a
number of KMT legislators have told AIT privately that they
prefer Ma and will not ask their followers to cast ballots
for Wang.

Winning is the Easy Part
--------------


6. (C) Even strong Ma supporters warn that Ma would have a
much harder time of consolidating a victory than Wang. Ma
loyalist Wu told AIT that the Taipei Mayor will inherit a
disaster from Lien in terms of personnel, finances, and
public image. Wu said it is very much possible that Ma will
also assume responsibility for the KMT's massive liabilities
without access to any of its equally massive assets,
asserting that rumors over moves by Lien loyalists to shift
KMT assets into outside accounts may have some validity.
Taipei City Council's Chen said she fully expects Lien aides
to use their control over party assets to demand concessions
from Ma over party positions and policies. Chen said that
the squeaky clean Ma would be loathe to agree to any quid pro
quos, setting the stage for a possible early showdown between
Ma and KMT power brokers. Lien loyalist Liao said that Ma's
personality may pose the greatest challenge to post-election
unity, noting that Ma may find the KMT a much more difficult
place to manage than the Taipei City government or the
Ministry of Justice. "As party Chairman, you need to have
strong interpersonal skills and a willingness to work with
different factions and interests," Liao remarked, "these do
not come natural to Ma."


7. (C) KMT officials also warn that Ma will have considerably
less influence over the LY Caucus than Lien currently enjoys,
especially if he is unable to reconcile with Wang. Wang told
AIT that no matter who wins on July 16, there is no chance
that he and Ma could work out a cooperative relationship
given their diametrically opposed personalities and political
styles. The depth of this animosity was on display earlier
in the year, when Wang opened his formal bid for the
Chairmanship race. After taking a bite out of a
congratulatory cake sent by Ma, Wang proclaimed before TV
cameras that "it's sweet, just like our relationship." Not
ten minutes later, Wang told AIT in private that "ignore
those media reports that say we are on friendly terms, I
never talk to that man, I can't stand him."


8. (C) Ma-Wang frictions notwithstanding, KMT officials say
that there is some validity to President Chen's recent claim
that government-opposition party relations will improve after
Lien steps down. Lien loyalist Liao said that the current
friction between the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and
KMT is mostly personal. "Lien despises Chen as a country
bumpkin who has twice deprived Lien of a presidency that he
believes is rightfully his," Liao stated, adding that "Lien's
primary motivation on every issue is to deprive Chen of any
policy successes." KMT Legislator Wu said that while the KMT
would continue to confront the DPP government on a number of
domestic and cross-Strait issues, Lien's departure will
remove a major hurdle for LY action on the Special Defense
Procurement Budget. Wu said that Ma would likely seek to use
the Special Budget as a gesture to show that he is sincere in
his desire to shape the KMT into a responsible opposition
party.

Has Ma's Chance Finally Arrived?
--------------


9. (C) After months of speculation and uncertainty, Ma's
decision to press ahead with his candidacy for the KMT
Chairmanship appears to be finally paying off. Barring a
surprise announcement on June 8 by Lien, the KMT will proceed
with the first open election for party leader in its history.
While Wang and Lien loyalists are already employing media
smear tactics and are likely to seek to manipulate voting in
Wang's favor, Ma's lead in the polls appears to give him a
decisive advantage. Regardless of how dirty his opponents
get during the campaign, Ma will need to tread cautiously in
order to avoid offending core KMT interests groups. An
election that produced a KMT Chairman unable to control the
party's finances or legislative Caucus would be a personal
disaster for Ma and a serious threat to the KMT's prospects
in 2008.
PAAL