DPP CHAIRMAN LOOKS TO HIS OWN FUTURE

C O N F I D E N T I A L TAIPEI 002421

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STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR TW
SUBJECT: DPP CHAIRMAN LOOKS TO HIS OWN FUTURE


Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairman Su
Tseng-chang plans to start distancing himself from President

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Chen Shui-bian, according to a senior aide. DPP Deputy
Secretary General Yen Wan-ching said that Su, who plans to

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depart for first visit to the U.S. as party chair in early
July, has become exasperated by Chen Shui-bian's
unpredictable leadership style and Su increasingly sees Chen
as a liability to Su's own 2008 prospects. Yen said Su saw
Chen's appointment of DPP rival Frank Hsieh as Premier in
February and more recent public criticism over Su's handling
of the DPP's National Assembly (NA) campaign as a personal
betrayal. In addition, Yen said that Chen's erratic behavior
over the past several weeks has damaged the DPP's image among
the general public. Although Su frequently criticized Chen
in private while serving as Taipei County Magistrate, Su has
hewed closely to the Chen line in public and private since
May 20, 2004, when he assumed the post of Presidential Office
Secretary General.

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2. (C) Yen said that Su had already prepared a resignation
speech to deliver on May 14 had the DPP lost the NA election.
Yen asserted that Su had mixed feelings over the DPP's
strong performance, since he had looked forward to the
opportunity to quit and escape from Chen's shadow. While Su
plans to remain in his current post, Yen said he will no
longer automatically tow the President's line. "He will show
respect to the President," Yen remarked, "but will not
necessarily express agreement with the President's policies."


3. (C) Yen predicted that Premier Hsieh will also seek to put
space between himself and Chen with an eye towards 2008, but
noted that Hsieh's room for maneuver was limited by his
position and need to reach out to the Pan-Blue opposition.
Yen said that Hsieh's attempts to seek reconciliation with
the increasingly hostile Pan-Blue Legislative Yuan (LY)
parties could hurt him in the DPP's 2008 presidential
primary. While Hsieh's fate may be sealed if his cabinet
remains unable to advance any policies in the face of
opposition obstructionism, Yen said that Su's future is
riding on the DPP's performance in the December 3 local
election.


4. (C) Yen told AIT that Su will travel to Washington after
he delivers a July 3 speech in San Francisco. Su recently
asked TECRO Washington Representative David Lee to start
arranging meetings for Su and his delegation with USG
officials, along with members of Congress and the think tank
community. Yen said that Su may be willing to share his own
policy vision (as opposed to simply reiterating familiar Chen
policy lines) during his Washington meetings if the U.S. side
would find it useful.

Bionote
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5. (C) Yen is Su's main cross-Strait and foreign policy
advisor and a ranking member of the DPP's powerful New Tide
faction. A former Deputy SecGen of the Strait Exchange
Foundation and Director of the DPP's China Affairs
Department, Yen can be expected to play a central role in any
possible future Su administration. Yen said told AIT that he
would like to travel to Washington separately later in the
summer to meet with working level officials from the
Departments of State and Defense, the National Security
Council (NSC),and the Office of the Vice President.
PAAL