Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05TAIPEI2337
2005-05-27 12:11:00
CONFIDENTIAL
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Cable title:  

NATIONAL ASSEMBLY SET TO APPROVE CONSTITUTIONAL

Tags:  PGOV PREL TW 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002337 

SIPDIS

WASHINGTON PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/27/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY SET TO APPROVE CONSTITUTIONAL

REFORMS

REF: 2004 TAIPEI 2662

Classified By: AIT Deputy Director David J. Keegan, Reason 1.4 b

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002337

SIPDIS

WASHINGTON PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/27/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY SET TO APPROVE CONSTITUTIONAL

REFORMS

REF: 2004 TAIPEI 2662

Classified By: AIT Deputy Director David J. Keegan, Reason 1.4 b


1. (C) Summary. The National Assembly (NA) will convene in
Taipei on May 30 to consider a package of constitutional
reforms that leaders in both the DPP and KMT hope will
encourage development of a two-party political system and
discourage radical amendments to the constitution. The high
ratification threshold of 75 percent, however, has added an
aura of uncertainty to the NA, with concern that some of the
83 percent of NA delegates elected in support of the reforms
might not honor their pledge and, thus, defeat the reforms.
Fearing retribution from DPP elder Lin Yi-hsiung and worried
that the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) would not, or could not,
enforce discipline, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party
(DPP) frantically -- and unsuccessfully -- tried to alter the
ratification threshold from 75 to 50 percent earlier this
week. KMT leaders, however, insist their delegates will vote
for the constitutional revisions, which would ensure passage
of the package. End Summary.


2. (U) The ad hoc NA will begin meeting on Monday, March 30,
to deliberate on a package of constitutional revisions passed
by the Legislative Yuan (LY) last August (Ref A). The NA is
"ad hoc" (renwuxing) because it is charged with one task --
voting yes or no on the package -- before dissolving itself
permanently and leaving Taiwan with a unicameral legislature,
the LY. Although the NA has a maximum of 30 days to meet,
most delegates and analysts expect the actual ratification
process to be completed quickly, perhaps in one or two days,
after the plenary session commences June 9.

A Question of Party Discipline
--------------


3. (C) With 83.1% of NA delegates elected from political
parties supporting ratification of the constitutional
revisions, the outstanding question is whether the
pro-revision political parties, particularly DPP and KMT
which together won 244, or 80 percent, of the 300 NA seats,
can impose party discipline on their delegates. DPP SecGen
Su Tseng-chang publicly pledged that all DPP delegates will
vote for the constitutional revision package as they had been
entrusted to do.



4. (C) The DPP supported passage of an NA Procedural Law on
May 20 that imposed a 75 percent ratification threshold, but
it developed second thoughts over the weekend. Deputy SecGen
Yan Wan-ching told AIT that his party became concerned over
the possibility of a substantial number of "vote runners"
(paopiao),delegates breaking ranks with their party and
abstaining or opposing the revision package. This, he
hastened to add, will not be a problem for the DPP, which
will maintain strong party discipline with few if any
dissenters. The KMT, he grimaced, is another story, and DPP
is not at all confident KMT party discipline will hold.
Because of this concern, President Chen and the DPP sought to
revise the Procedural Law, lowering the ratification
threshold from 75 to 50 percent. An equally compelling
reason for this last minute switch was DPP fear of criticism
by its former chairman Lin Yi-hsiung that a 75 percent bar
was non-constitutional. Lin suggested President Chen should
be recalled unless he was able to lower the ratification
threshold to 50 percent. The unorthodox move, however
failed, and ratification remains at 75 percent.


5. (C) The KMT, for its part, insists that its support for
the constitutional revision package is solid. When KMT NA
delegate Chu Chun-yuan told the media on May 24 that he might
vote against the reform package, KMT leaders rushed to
reassure the public that the KMT will honor its NA election
pledge. The next day, KMT Chairman Lien Chan announced that
all 117 KMT delegates will vote for the constitutional reform
package, and other senior party officials stated the party
will expel any delegates who vote against the package and
replace them in the NA. The same day, Chu Chun-yuan himself
wrote a letter to the KMT leadership pledging that he will
cooperate in full with the KMT in the NA. Taoyuan County
Magistrate Eric Chu told the AIT Deputy Director on May 27
that all KMT delegates will vote for the revisions,
dismissing the possibility of any KMT member not voting along
party lines. Chu said he is convinced the constitutional
reforms will be ratified quickly and without any problems.
He stressed that the KMT believes that these reforms will
force the PFP to return to the KMT, which is an important
party objective.

Comment: Likely Impact of the Reforms
--------------


6. (C) The proposed reform package will halve the number of
LY seats, create a single-member district electoral system,
provide for an island-wide referendum on future
constitutional amendments, and permanently dissolve the NA.
Most LY members, political analysts, and NA delegates with
whom AIT has discussed the constitutional reform package
since last August agree on two probable effects of the
revisions. First, the single-member district electoral
system will encourage evolution into a two-party political
system, probably under the two major parties, DPP and KMT.
Second, the referendum will raise the bar for ratification of
constitutional amendments by adding an additional step
requiring a majority of all eligible voters to approve future
constitutional amendments. By marginalizing small, often
more radical, political parties and by raising the bar on
constitutional amendments, the constitutional reform package
up for consideration by the NA should reinforce moderate
elements in the Taiwan political system and moderation in
cross-Strait relation. While President Chen has announced
that this "first stage" of constitutional reform will be
followed by a "second stage," he has been careful to specify
that future reforms will focus on government efficiency and
bringing the half century-old constitution up to date. He
has also said that constitutional reforms will only be
possible if they are broadly supported. DPP leaders
responsible for constitutional reform have assured AIT they
are aware that both Beijing and Washington are closely
watching the constitutional reform process. They pledge to
proceed cautiously and responsibly in order not to arouse
concern, and to keep AIT informed as plans for future
constitutional reform take shape.
PAAL