PFP HARDLINERS RESIST COOPERATION WITH DPP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002214

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL TW
SUBJECT: PFP HARDLINERS RESIST COOPERATION WITH DPP

REF: A. TAIPEI 02166


B. TAIPEI 01525

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: In the wake of the People First Party's
(PFP) devastating showing in the May 14 National Assembly
election, party hardliners tell AIT they intend to challenge
Chairman James Soong over the PFP's recent alliance with
President Chen Shui-bian. Several PFP legislators, including
Chiu Yi, Lee Ching-hua, Lin Yu-fang, and Sun Ta-Chien, have
already publicly demanded that the PFP leadership hold an
open debate over cooperation with the ruling Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) and reportedly have threatened to
resign if he fails to meet their demands. In preparation for
their charge at Soong, PFP hardliners appeared to have won
over several Soong loyalists, including Legislators Daniel
Hwang (Yi-jiau) and Liu Wen-hsiung. Other Soong loyalists,
however, have moved to defend the beleaguered Chairman and
his alliance with the DPP. Saying that the malcontents are
free to leave anytime, Soong has dismissed this challenge of
his leadership. Wounded from two successive election
defeats, however, Soong will be under intense pressure to
adjust course. If Soong does break with the DPP, it could
seriously damage prospects for key legislation, including the
Special Defense Procurement Budget. End Summary.

Attack of the Hardliners
--------------


2. (C) "Deep Blue" (pro-unification) hardliners in the People
First Party (PFP) blame Chairman James Soong's accommodation
with the DPP for the party's devastating showing in the May
14 National Assembly (NA) election. Party hardliners tell
AIT they intend to challenge Soong over the future direction
of the party. Several PFP legislators, including Chiu Yi,
Lee Ching-hua, Lin Yu-fang, and Sun Ta-Chien, have already
publicly demanded that the PFP leadership hold an open debate
on the party's cooperation with the ruling Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP). Sun Ta-chien, who has been a vocal
critic of the February 24 Chen-Soong meeting, noted that
everything he had told AIT on the eve of the election has
come to pass (Ref A). He told AIT that PFP's poor
performance in the NA election was a clear rejection by the
PFP voter base of the party's cohabitation with the DPP. Sun
acknowledged that, despite his earlier comments to AIT about
his bitter resentment of the KMT, he now realizes PFP's
future lies with the KMT. He also said that Soong will
convene a meeting with PFP legislators and party officials on
May 17 at which he and his PFP LY colleagues will try to
compel Soong to abandon cooperation with the DPP and seek
closer relations with the KMT. Soong told the AIT Director
May 17 that he has persuaded all but a few key "mavericks" to
accept his continued leadership (Septel).

Boycotting DPP LY Proposals
--------------


3. (C) Following the NA election, the PFP legislative caucus
moved to signal publicly the party's future direction. PFP
Legislative Convener Chen Chih-pin announced that the PFP
will boycott negotiations with the DPP on all legislation and
will oppose the DPP's call for the Legislative Yuan (LY) to
hold an extraordinary summer session following the end of the
regular session in late May. PFP Caucus Whip Lee Yong-ping
told reporters that the PFP will team up with the KMT caucus
to implement the "Five Point" communique signed by KMT
Chairman Lien Chan and PRC President Hu Jintao as well as the
"Six Point" agreement reached by Soong and Hu. She also
claimed that Soong has recently said that the PFP does not
rule out the possibility of merging with the KMT. (Note: At
the beginning of the February LY session, PFP LY members
elected Chen Chih-pin, Hsu Yao-chang, and Lee Yong-ping as
their caucus leaders, over the objection of Soong who
preferred Lee Hung-chun. Chen and Hsu are local politicians
with no concrete ideological position but known for their
emphasis on consensus-building. Sun told AIT that he urged
Lee Yong-ping to stand for election as "our" representative.
In the next session, Sun said they intend to elect Lin
Yu-fang. End Note.)


4. (C) Open criticisms of the direction Soong has been taking
have fueled media speculation that a number of PFP
legislators are about to quit the party. Sun Ta-chien,
however, told AIT that he intends to stay and that he has
convinced Chiu Yi, Lee Ching-hua and other reportedly wayward
PFP members thinking of leaving the party to stay and fight
the Soong line, using the argument that only by staying can
they pry Soong away from the DPP and back into the Pan-Blue
mainstream. Pointing to the LY caucus leadership election,
Sun asserted that the anti-DPP hardliners have previously
challenged Soong and won (Ref B).

Eroding Soong's Inner Circle
--------------


5. (C) In preparation for their challenge to Soong, PFP
hardliners appear to have already won over several Soong
loyalists. When AIT arrived in PFP Legislator Daniel Hwang
(Yih-jiau)'s office on May 16, Chen Chih-pin was leaving the
office. Hwang told AIT that he and Chen would meet with
Soong later that day to urge Soong to change his leadership
style. Hwang explained that PFP LY members will no longer
tolerate Soong's autocratic decision making. Hwang blamed
fellow legislator and PFP Policy Chief Vincent Chang
(Hsien-yao) for encouraging Soong's dictatorial approach.
The camp opposed to any cooperation with the DPP appears to
have also won over former LY caucus leader Liu Wen-hsiung.
Kevin Lo, a Liu aide, told AIT that Liu is trying to distance
himself from Soong. Lo explained that Soong's continued
cooperation with the DPP is hurting Liu Wen-hsiung's own
chances of winning the Keelung Magistrate election in
December. Lo added that only a handful of PFP members --
Vincent Chang, PFP Deputy Secretary General Ma Chieh-ming,
and longtime Soong aide Hsia Liung -- now support Soong's
desire to continue cooperating with the DPP.


6. (C) Other Soong loyalists, however, have moved to defend
the beleaguered Chairman and his alliance with the DPP. PFP
Public Affairs Deputy Director Liao Wen-chang told AIT that
the lack of effort on the part of the legislators in question
is the real reason for the PFP's poor NA election
performance. He said the party is better off without these
malcontents who are only trying to attract attention for
their own political interests. Other senior PFP officials
revealed to the media May 16 that Soong has also dismissed
his critics, saying they are free to leave if they want.

Comment: Soong at a Crossroad
--------------


7. (C) Five months after the PFP fared poorly in the December
2004 LY election, Chairman James Soong has finally come to a
policy crossroad. Given the PFP's even weaker performance in
the NA election last weekend, Soong has few options left.
There appears to be little chance that he can ensure the
political survival of his personal career or even that of his
party. Soong was motivated to seek an accommodation with
President Chen Shui-bian and the DPP by his fear of the PFP
being swallowed up by the KMT in the wake of the December LY
election. The May 14 NA election, however, signaled that the
PFP's electoral base prefers Pan-Blue unity over cross-party
reconciliation. PFP hopefuls for the December 2005
magistrate and mayoral elections are clearly placing their
hopes in union with and nomination by the KMT. Soong will
have to decide whether he will acquiesce to the anti-DPP
hardliners in order to keep his party together but face
eventual, seemingly unavoidable merger with the KMT, or
continue his alliance with the DPP with a rump section of the
PFP. The ruling DPP, of course, hopes Soong opts for the
latter. While this would split the PFP, it could facilitate
real DPP-PFP cooperation in the LY. Relations between Soong
and the DPP, however, are at low ebb following DPP criticism
of Soong's PRC visit as "failed" and Soong's public
complaints over Chen's series of pre-election "revelations"
over Soong's meetings with PRC officials in the U.S. and
under-the-table promises over the Special Defense Procurement
Budget.
PAAL