NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTION UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 002166

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTION UPDATE

REF: TAIPEI 02066

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: On election eve, the National Assembly (NA)
election remains largely overshadowed by media focus on
cross-Strait relations, Soong's PRC visit, and President
Chen's relations with other political leaders. Nevertheless
the major parties have launched a last minute effort to
mobilize support for their NA tickets. The ruling Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) is emphasizing its long-standing
commitment to constitutional reform. The KMT has rolled out
its familiar theme of the "ROC" and cross-Strait stability.
Finding itself positioned on the same side of the aisle with
the DPP in support of proposed constitutional reforms, the
KMT has had to counter allegations from deep Blue critics
that the constitutional reforms it supports will lead to de
jure Taiwan independence. The People First Party (PFP) has
attempted to portray itself as the party of moderation and
reconciliation, but even James Soong's May 12 meeting with
PRC leader Hu Jintao has failed to ignite much enthusiasm
among PFP voters. The pro-independence Taiwan Solidarity
Union (TSU) continues to leverage Pan-Green discontent over
President Chen's relatively conciliatory stance on recent
Pan-Blue visits to the Mainland to obscure the fact that it
is running against the popular constitutional reforms. End
Summary.

Turnout Rate Decides Election
--------------


2. (U) A TVBS poll released May 11 showed the KMT garnering
29 percent of the votes cast island-wide, DPP 22 percent, TSU
four percent, and PFP three percent. The poll also predicted
a voter turnout rate of 42 percent, with a substantial 61
percent of the public still reporting they do not understand
the issues in the NA election. Other political observers
predicted an even lower turnout, noting that the lack of
enthusiasm among centrist voters is likely to benefit those
parties that succeed in mobilizing core supporters on
election day. Legislative Yuan (LY) President Wang Jin-pyng,
a KMT Vice Chairman, told AIT that DPP might perform slightly
better than the KMT because 60 percent of DPP supporters will
turn out to vote while only 40 percent of KMT supporters will
go to the polls on election day.

DPP: True Reformers
--------------


3. (C) Despite coming under pressure following his earlier
attacks on his political opponents, Chen Shui-bian has
continued to dominate the air waves this week, during which
he has touted the proposed constitutional reforms as crucial
to Taiwan's political development. Chen used most of a
two-hour televised interview on May 12 to explain the
significance of the NA election and the constitutional
revision package. While Chen rejected James Soong's "two
sides, one China" formulation in his May 12 televised remarks
-- a hardline response in part aimed at shoring up
last-minute support for the DPP in the May 14 election -- his
overall tone last night were more conciliatory than those he
made in two television interviews earlier this week. Chen,
for example, largely chose not to criticize the KMT, which
shares the DPP's position on the constitutional reform
package.


4. (C) The Executive Yuan's (EY) Research, Development and
Evaluation Commission (RDEC) Minister Yeh Jiunn-rong, a DPP
nominee for the NA, told AIT that DPP and KMT cooperation in
the NA constitutional reforms will provide another
opportunity for cross-party cooperation, in addition to
President Chen's invitation for cross-party cooperation on
cross-Strait issues. The two parties, he explained, will
need to coordinate and work together, first, to try and pass
the NA Procedural Implementing Law in the ten days before the
NA meets around June 1 and, failing that, in the NA itself to
pass procedural rules on which the NA will operate. In any
event, he told AIT, he expects the NA meetings to proceed
smoothly. Many of the members, he pointed out, will be
scholars like himself, rather than contentious politicians.

KMT: Popularity Contest
--------------


5. (C) The KMT is once again playing it safe and using
familiar themes in the NA campaign. As it did in the
December 2004 Legislative Yuan (LY) election campaign, the
KMT is defining the NA election as a struggle to safeguard
the "Republic of China" and to promote cross-Strait
stability. The party has been emphasizing its commitment to
peaceful and stable political reform, while campaigning to
refute allegations that the LY-approved constitutional reform
package would lead to de jure Taiwan independence. KMT
Overseas Affairs Director Ho Szu-yin told AIT that the actual
issues that the NA will debate are "far too complicated" for
the electorate, so the KMT has not even attempted to explain
them. Rather, Ho explained, the KMT has presented the NA
election as a "thermometer" for partisan popularity. Citing
a DPP internal poll that showed approval rating for the KMT
increasing by ten percent after KMT Chairman Lien Chan's
return from the PRC, Ho said the KMT is hoping to be able to
turn the success of Lien's PRC visit into electoral support.


6. (C) The KMT may be trying some scare tactics as well.
RDEC Minister and DPP candidate Yeh told AIT that he was
caught off guard by the sudden reemergence of the "name
rectification" (zhengming) issue on May 9. That day's
pro-Blue United Daily News reported that a "high level source
in the Executive Yuan" disclosed that Premier Frank Hsieh
intended to revive name rectification and "will soon restart
the plan for changing the name of state-run companies and
overseas representative offices and will promote this plan in
stages." Yeh explained that the report brought back
unpleasant memories of President Chen's unsuccessful effort
to use name rectification as an issue in the December LY
campaign. When Yeh queried EY Secretary General Lee
Ying-yuan, Lee told Yeh -- and later publicly stated -- that
the report was false. Lee explained to Yeh that he himself
is in charge of the committee that handles name
rectification, and that committee had not met since Premier
Hsieh put name rectification on hold after taking office in
January 2005. The newspaper report, Yeh charged angrily, was
"KMT disinformation" to scare voters away from the DPP and
into the arms of the KMT.

PFP: In Soong's Shadow
--------------


7. (C) The PFP is hoping to win the support of centrist
voters by promoting the theme of party-to-party
reconciliation. PFP has been running a television commercial
portraying an antique Portuguese map of an earth-colored
Taiwan melding into the color blue in the North and green in
the South. When the two colors clash, the island splits in
two, and a voice-over asks how did Taiwan become one country
on each side (yi bian yi guo). An ORANGE (the PFP's color)
thread then weaves the two sides together and restores unity
and equanimity to the island.


8. (C) PFP Legislator Sun Ta-chien, however, told AIT that he
does not believe the party's campaign theme has been
successful in arousing votes for the PFP. Soong's continued
flirtation with Chen Shui-bian, he complained, has caused
many PFP core supporters to abandon the party. Soong's
public insistence that he is not Chen's envoy and opposition
to Taiwan independence, notwithstanding, Sun lamented that
"Soong is too close to Abian." On Chen's public charge that
Soong held a secret meeting in the U.S. with PRC Taiwan
Affairs Office Director Chen Yunlin, Sun noted that Soong had
denied the charge but wondered why Soong had not lashed out
at Chen for making the accusation. Sun told AIT that,
despite the PFP's best efforts, he predicted the KMT and DPP
will win the election and the PFP will end up with only three
percent of the vote. The real problem, he said, is that
James Soong does not care about this election, and that the
media coverage garnered for Soong's PRC visit will help only
Soong himself.

TSU: Capturing the DPP Protest Vote

SIPDIS
--------------


9. (C) The pro-independence TSU has targeted its NA campaign
at "deep" Green supporters who are increasingly dissatisfied
with President Chen's tack to the political center following
the December 2004 LY election. The TSU has also seized on
deep Green anger over the Pan-Blue outreach to the PRC,
characterizing the NA election as a struggle between forces
that support Taiwanization and those obsessed with "China
fever." TSU Secretary General Chen Chien-ming told AIT that
his party sees the NA election as crucial to its long-term
survival. If the party can outperform its disappointing
showing in December 2004, Chen said, then it will have a much
greater say on issues like nominations for the December local
election. TSU officials and PFP officials are also hoping to
gain a combined 25 percent of the vote in order to have a
chance to shape NA procedural rules in a way that may derail
the reform package.

Comment: Highjacked Election
--------------


10. (C) The NA election has clearly lost its original focus.
The purpose of the election has transformed from being an
opportunity to elect party representatives to debate and
ratify a set of constitutional amendments passed by the LY
last August to being a public verdict on the performance on
the leaders of each political party. From the beginning, the
NA election attracted little public interest because the
Taiwan electorate traditionally and historically "votes for
the candidate, not a party." In order to attract interest in
the election, the political parties hitched their NA election
campaigns to the media attention on Lien and Soong's PRC
visits and Chen's reactions to those visits.
PAAL