MA YING-JEOU FORESEES CROSS-PARTY RECONCILIATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002135

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/12/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL TW
SUBJECT: MA YING-JEOU FORESEES CROSS-PARTY RECONCILIATION

REF: A. TAIPEI 02114


B. TAIPEI 02063

C. TAIPEI 02066

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: In a May 10 meeting with the AIT Director,
Taipei City Mayor Ma Ying-jeou said he was confident that
President Chen Shui-bian's recent attacks on Pan-Blue leaders
were merely pre-National Assembly (NA) election rhetoric and
that Chen would tack back to the center afterward. Ma also
said he was confident the Legislative Yuan (LY) would enact
implementing legislation in time for the NA to convene in
late May/early June. Ma asserted that, even if the LY did
not, the NA would be able to write its own rules in order to
convene and pass the set of constitutional reforms passed
last August by the LY. Ma believed that the adoption of the
proposed constitutional amendments would bring more stability
to the Taiwan political process. He noted that the race for
KMT Chairman was currently "very tight," and that he wanted
the position in order to bring much needed reforms to his
party. End Summary.

Chen Shui-bian's China Fever
--------------


2. (C) In a May 10 meeting with the AIT Director, Taipei City
Mayor Ma Ying-jeou characterized President Chen Shui-bian's
recent attacks on Pan-Blue leaders (Ref A) as an effort to
retake the political agenda in the lead up to the May 14
National Assembly (NA) election. Ma said he is confident
that after the NA election Chen will tack back to the center
on cross-party reconciliation and moderate his criticism of
opposition party leaders. Pointing out that the KMT supports
constitutional amendments to be debated by the National
Assembly, Ma dismissed as "totally illogical" Chen's
accusation that the PRC is using the KMT and People First
Party (PFP) visits to Mainland China to undermine the DPP's
campaign for constitutional revision.

Constitutional Reform and Referendum
--------------


3. (C) Ma also told the AIT Director that he is not worried
that the LY has not yet passed the "exercise of power" act
authorizing the NA to convene. Ma said that there is still
time for the LY to debate the issue and pass legislation to
meet the constitutional requirement that the NA convene
within ten days of the election. According to Ma, although
the outcome of the election will be known by May 15, the
election result would not be official until the Central
Election Commission (CEC) certified it one week later. So
the deadline for the NA to convene is June 1. Moreover, Ma
pointed out that the "ROC" Constitution endows the NA, once
the public has elected its members, with the power to write
its own rules. If the NA had to make its rules, Ma noted
that he was confident the NA members would decide on a simple
majority rather than three-fourths as the threshold for
ratification of the proposed constitutional amendments.


4. (C) Echoing the assessment provided to the AIT Director in
a separate April 20 meeting with KMT Chairman Lien Chan, Ma
asserted that the adoption of the draft constitutional
amendments would bring more stability to the Taiwan political
process by making it more difficult to hold a referendum (Ref
B and C). Ma said the amended constitution will introduce an
additional obstacle to the constitutional revision process --
in addition to requiring three-fourths of the LY to approve
putting a constitutional revision question to a referendum,
the new process will then require fifty percent (8 million)
of all eligible voters (currently 16.5 million) to cast
ballots to approve the revision. Currently, only a simple
majority of the NA, with no minimum public voting requirement
for NA election, is required to confirm LY-passed revisions.
Ma said that these criteria would render it "impossible" to
pass any revision to the constitution on sensitive subjects.

KMT Chairman Race
--------------


5. (C) Ma then told the Director that he is currently in a
"very tight race" against LY President Wang Jin-pyng for the
KMT Chairmanship. Ma refrained from criticizing his opponent
but did complain that Wang's campaign was telling KMT members
to vote for Wang in order to "save" Ma as the KMT candidate
for 2008 presidential election. Ma said that he wanted to
bring desperately needed reforms to his party, specifically
citing that the KMT needs to resolve the party asset issue,
to downsize the over-staffed organization, and to continue
the democratization process within the party. Ma warned that
these problems would become a drag on the party in future
elections. He lamented that the KMT's stronger than expected
performance in the December 2004 LY election had caused many
KMT officials to forget about the need for reform. He said
he would not be disadvantaged by the KMT Central Standing
Committee decision to allow party members who did not pay
membership fees to vote in the party Chairman election.

Comment: A Leader or a Media Creation
--------------


6. (C) Ma Ying-jeou said relatively little new during this
hour-long lunch meeting. The process of scheduling the lunch
was almost more informative than the event itself. The lunch
appears to have been the brain child of KMT Legislator Su
Chi, a schoolmate of Ma, who has been trying to raise his own
profile with both Ma and the AIT Director by asserting
himself as an intermediary. Ma is well-known for being
over-scheduled by his staff, and AIT experienced it first
hand in the course of arranging this meeting. Between March
28 when the Mayor's office first contacted AIT for a meeting
and May 10, Ma's office changed the meeting time, date, and
venue at least three times. At one point, Ma's newly
appointed International Affairs Executive Director Raymond
Wang (former Honolulu TECRO Representative) telephoned AIT to
apologize for the numerous scheduling changes and explained
that the heated KMT Chairman race imposed a demanding
schedule on Ma.


7. (C) Ma did not appear to be engaged in any stage of the
arrangements for our meeting, from scheduling to attendance
to the substance of the discussion. Increasingly, observers
inside and outside of the KMT have noted to AIT that Ma has
shown clear leadership shortcomings when faced with
challenges, be they the 2004 Pan-Blue street demonstrations
or attempts by party heavyweights to derail Ma's Chairmanship
bid. One frequent criticism is Ma's inability to find good
advice. Most of Ma's inner circle is made up of former
academics and diplomats, hardly the kind of political
operators that are needed to succeed in Taiwan's rough and
tumble political arena.
PAAL