Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05TAIPEI2066
2005-05-09 00:47:00
CONFIDENTIAL
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Cable title:  

PRIMER ON MAY 14 NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTION

Tags:  PGOV PREL TW 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

090047Z May 05
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 002066 

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/06/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: PRIMER ON MAY 14 NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTION

REF: 2004 TAIPEI 02662

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 002066

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/06/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: PRIMER ON MAY 14 NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTION

REF: 2004 TAIPEI 02662

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: The Taiwan public and media remain largely
disengaged over the upcoming National Assembly (NA) election
despite the fact that there are only eight days left, in part
because Taiwan's political parties have ran a very low-key
campaign. This, the final NA, is being elected to vote on a
set of constitutional reforms passed by the Legislative Yuan
(LY) last August. Political analysts expect a poor turnout,
perhaps as low as 30 percent, which would particularly hurt
the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). DPP officials worry
that recent media focus on the Mainland China visits of
Pan-Blue leaders Lien Chan and James Soong, and internal
Pan-Green discontent over the government's "weak" response,
will damage the ruling party. Both the People First Party
(PFP) and Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) have declared their
opposition to the five reforms that will be considered by the
NA and are hoping to gain enough seats to prevent passage of
the package, which would create a single-member-per-district
legislative system that would marginalize small parties and
benefit the two large parties, DPP and KMT. Despite the
active efforts of the two smaller parties, however, DPP and
KMT officials remain confident that the reform package will
pass in June. End Summary.

Election, What Election?
--------------


2. (C) Public opinion surveys continue to show a low level of
interest in the May 14 election for the National Assembly
(NA),even though there is just over a week before the
election. According to the Green-leaning Taiwan Advocates
survey released April 13, more than 50 percent of the people
surveyed had no idea that a NA election would be held on May
14 and 80 percent were confused about the political parties'
stance on the constitutional amendments to be debated by the
NA. Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Survey Center
Director Wu Hsiang-jung confirmed these statistics at a May 4
DPP briefing to the diplomatic community on the NA election.
He noted, for example, that 34 percent of the public
erroneously thinks the KMT opposes the constitutional reforms
while only 20 percent realizes the KMT actually supports the

reforms. Wu predicted an election turnout rate of under 30
percent, attributing the low public interest to the fact that
in this election voters will vote for political parties
rather than individual candidates. KMT Organizational
Development Director Liao Fung-te predicted a slightly higher
turnout rate of 35-40 percent. In an attempt to boost the
turnout rate, the Central Election Commission (CEC)
commissioned a popular actor to promote the election and
plans to hold a "lucky draw" among May 14 voters for a grand
prize of NT one million dollars (USD 300,000).


3. (C) The combination of an expected low turnout rate and
public focus on visits by Pan-Blue leaders to the Mainland
has made DPP officials increasingly nervous. DPP Legislator
Bi-khim Hsiao said the DPP is worried about this election
because people's attention has been distracted away from the
election by the focus on the PRC visits of the two opposition
party chairmen. National Security Council (NSC) Deputy
Secretary General Henry Ke told AIT that the government

SIPDIS
suspects Beijing's decision to move up the timetable for the
Pan-Blue visits may have been timed to hurt the DPP in the NA
election. A poor DPP showing, he explained, could further
erode Chen's domestic base.


4. (C) KMT officials insist they are confident their party
will do well, despite the fact that the KMT largely ignored
the election until the past several days. KMT Legislator
Shyu Jong-Shyong told KMT that low election turnout rates
always favor the well-organized KMT. DPP's Wu Hsiang-jung
separately agreed with Shyu's assessment and predicted that
all 148 KMT nominees will win seats. KMT Chairman Lien Chan
told the Director on May 6, however, that he thought both the
KMT and DPP would perform well on May 14, since the two
parties both support the politically popular reform package.
Although they are not cooperating on the NA, TSU and PFP
officials are hoping to win at least one quarter of the seats
in hopes of then being able to derail the reform package.
While TSU officials tell AIT that President Chen's shift to
the political center should boost the TSU's share of the
Pan-Green vote, PFP Public Affairs Deputy Director Liao
Wen-chang told AIT that he did not expect the PFP to do well.


5. (C) Pessimistic over its election prospects, the PFP has
tried to use procedural mechanisms to block the NA from being
able to convene. The party used the virtual "veto" from its
pivotal position in the LY to block revisions to the draft NA
procedural rules. PFP Policy Chief Vincent Chang told AIT
that if the LY fails to act in the current LY session that
ends at the end of May, under Article 34 of the Constitution,
the NA will not be able to convene. DPP and KMT legislators
reject this interpretation and argue that once elected, the
NA can establish its own procedural rules, if necessary. DPP
Legislator Hong Chi-chang stated that the LY cannot invoke
Article 34 to block the NA from convening, since this would
acknowledge that the LY had failed its constitutional
responsibilities to establish procedural rules for the NA.
(Note: Article 34 states "The organization of the National
Assembly, the election and recall of delegates to the
National Assembly, and the procedure whereby the National
Assembly is to carry out its functions, shall be prescribed
by law." End Note.)


6. (SBU) The issue of draft rules for the NA lie at the heart
of political calculations by the TSU and the PFP. The rules
will need to specify whether the NA assembly will require a
simple majority vote or a three-quarters majority vote,
either of those present or of all elected members, in order
to approve the proposed constitutional amendments. The last
round of constitutional amendments (promulgated in 2000)
eliminated the three-quarters NA majority previously mandated
to confirm revisions passed by the LY (Article 127, Item 1),
mandating that only changes to the national boundaries
require a three-quarters NA majority. Article 1 of the
Additional Articles, which replaced previous rules governing
the NA, does not specify the bar needed for NA confirmation
of constitutional amendments on other subjects. If the final
rules require a three-quarter majority and the TSU and PFP
between them control more than a quarter of the seats in the
NA, then they will have the capacity to scuttle the reduction
in size of the LY, which they fear will drastically reduce
the future influence of their two parties. Some analysts
expect that the success of the TSU and PFP on May 14 will be
the driving force in whether to require a three quarter
majority NA vote. If the two parties together win more than
one-quarter of the seats they may well insist on NA rules
that require a three-quarters vote. If they fail to reach
that number, the LY or NA will likely agree to a simple
majority vote for passage of the proposed constitutional
amendments.

Mandate of the National Assembly
--------------


7. (U) Under the rules established by the most recent
revisions to the "Republic of China (ROC)" constitution, the
300 NA seats will be allocated to political parties according
to the proportion of votes each registered group garners in
the May 14 election. The ad hoc NA elected on May 14 will
convene for the sole purpose of debating and voting on the
draft constitutional amendment package proposed by the LY on
August 23, 2004 (Reftel). Following the election, the NA
must convene within ten days and then must complete its task
of adopting or rejecting the constitutional amendment package
within 30 days. With one of the provisions of the packing
being the elimination of the NA itself, this may be the final
meeting of the body.

Five Issues at Stake
--------------


8. (U) The provision calling for the dissolution of the NA is
one of five provisions of the constitutional amendment
package to be considered by the NA. In addition, the NA's
power to impeach president and vice president would be
transferred to the LY and, ultimately, to the Council of
Grand Justices (Note: a body appointed by the President. End
Note). A second provision proposes that a national
referendum will approve future constitutional amendments
submitted by the LY, replacing the current NA ratification
process.


9. (U) The remaining three provisions in the constitutional
amendment package relate to LY reforms. The reforms would
downsize the LY from its current 225 to 113 members, of which
73 will be directly elected in single seat constituencies
while six constituency seats would be reserved for
aborigines, and 34 chosen by a second vote based on
proportional voting for political parties. In the single
seat constituency system, there is no provision to reserve LY
seats for women. Another provision would change the voting
system from the current "single non-transferable vote" for
multiple representation in large districts to a "first past
the post" system with single representatives for smaller
sized constituencies. The final provision would provide for
each voter to cast two ballots, one for a candidate in the
single-member constituencies, and another for a party to
determine the allocation of proportional seats.

The "Candidates" and Platforms
--------------


10. (U) Twelve political parties and associations have
registered with the CEC for the May 14 election, with 687
candidates designated by these groups to compete for the 300
seats. Among the major political parties, the DPP has
nominated 150 candidates, KMT 148, TSU 50, PFP 83, and New
Party (NP) 26. In addition to the major political parties,
the Democracy Action Alliance, which organized the September
25, 2004 anti-arms procurement rally, has nominated 150
candidates, 76 of whom are university professors. This will
be the first election in living memory in which the ballot
will not feature individual candidate names and photographs.
Rather, the ballot will list only the name of the party or
group and whether it supports or opposes the constitutional
amendment package. Given this format, the fate of the
constitutional amendments would be essentially apparent as
soon as the election result is announced.

Comment: Sleeper Election
--------------


11. (C) The amendments passed by the LY last August (Reftel)
could have important long-term implications for Taiwan's
democratic system. The creation of single-member districts
should help moderate Taiwan's political discourse by forcing
parties to play to the political center and marginalizing
smaller, often more radical, political parties. Passage of
this package of constitutional reforms may, for example,
obviate calls from Pan-Green fundamentalists for more
sweeping constitutional revisions. However, few political
observers are focused on the substance of the election.
Rather, the (limited) attention on May 14 is focusing on the
election's implications for short-term political positioning.
Given the recent polarization of opinion over cross-Strait
relations, and plummeting DPP morale over President Chen's
changing stances on Pan-Blue contacts with the PRC, the DPP
is justifiably concerned over its prospects.
PAAL