MEDIA REACTION: CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 001910

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD -
ROBERT PALLADINO
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS


1. Summary: The major Taipei dailies over the weekend
provided a great deal of coverage on the upcoming China
trips by KMT Chairman Lien Chan and PFP Chairman James
Soong, with two new angles: President Chen Shui-bian's
change of attitude about the visits, and the role of
the United States with regard to Chen's change in
attitude. For April 24, the front-page news story for
the centrist "China Times," the pro-unification "United
Daily News," and the pro-independence "Taiwan Daily" --
and a page-two news story in the pro-independence
"Liberty Times" -- all carried Chen's remarks of the
previous day in which he said he would give his
blessings to the opposition leaders because their
upcoming China visits may serve as a probe for future
cross-Strait relations. A "United Daily News" news
story on page two April 24 quoted the KMT as saying
that Chen's change of attitude is a result of the
influence of Taiwan public opinion and the United
States' open support for the opposition-party leaders'
visits to China. Taiwan's biggest daily, the pro-
independence "Liberty Times," ran a banner headline on
page two April 25 emphasizing that "Bian mentioned that
[Lien's and Soong's trips] are a probe, but Chen never
said he wants Lien and Soong to pave the way for [his
trip to China.]" A page-four news story of Monday's
(4/25) "United Daily News" quoted a Pan-Blue source
saying the United States conveyed its hope to Chen via
AIT Director Douglas Paal and Taiwan's National
Security Deputy Secretary-General Ke Cheng-heng that he
will support Lien's visit to China, or Washington will
not rule out the possibility of criticizing Chen in
public. A separate news story on the same page of the
"United Daily News" cited DPP Secretary-General Su Chen-
chang as saying that Chen's blessings for Lien and
Soong were definitely not the result of U.S.
manipulation.


2. Professor Chu Yun-han of the National Taiwan
University commented in the centrist "China Times" on
the United States' role in cross-Strait relations by
saying that the biggest obstruction for cross-Strait
reconciliation will come from neo-conservatives inside
the Bush administration, who believe that the United
States must do all it can to thwart the rising of
China. A "United Daily News" news analysis said the
critical fear that Chen's power might be taken away has
finally been eliminated since Soong will visit China
with the ten-point consensus he reached with President
Chen Shui-bian, and Lien said he is willing to report
to Chen about his trip prior to his departure. A
limited-circulation, pro-independence English-language
"Taipei Times" editorial said the attitudes of the
Taiwan and U.S. governments are too tolerant of Lien
and Soong, while a limited-circulation, pro-unification
English-language "China Post" editorial said it is
possible that Lien's and Soong's trips to China will
lead to an eventual meeting between Chen Shui-bian and
Chinese President Hu Jintao. End summary.

A) "The Energy and Positive Foundation for Peace across
the Taiwan Strait"

Chu Yun-han, professor of political science professor
at the National Taiwan University, commented in the
"Weekly Review" column in the centrist, pro-status quo
"China Times" [circulation: 600,000] (4/25):

"Beginning this week, [KMT Chairman] Lien Chan and [PFP
Chairman] James Soong will separately begin their first-
ever trips to mainland China. The ice-breaking trips
will not only offer Lien and Soong an opportunity to
climb up a lofty political mountain range that no one
has ever attempted to [climb] over more than five
decades of cross-Strait confrontations, but will also
create a chance which may lead to a whole new page for
cross-Strait relations. .

"The United States, via a delicate manipulation of
diplomatic and military policies, has persistently
tried to make sure that the development of cross-Strait
relations as well as political developments inside
Taiwan would meet Washington's strategic interests in
East Asia. In the meantime, the fact that the
political discussions inside Taiwan tend to uphold the
de jure independence [of Taiwan] as an ultimate and non-
transferable option, and that the discourse on Taiwan's
entity, which tends to define the nature of cross-
Strait relations as a zero-sum game, have constantly
gained an upper hand in all debates has deprived many
local political elites of political imagination. These
political elites no longer know how to make use of the
tremendous transitional energy inherent in a [possible]
political reconciliation across the Taiwan Strait or
how to proactively convert such hidden energy into
substantive politics and a positive economic foundation
that will benefit Taiwan's existence and development.
Up to the eve of Taiwan's Legislative Yuan elections at
the end of last year, leaders in Beijing focused their
thoughts and energies in how to prevent de jure Taiwan
independence; they have never really planned or worked
out a blueprint about how to lead both sides of the
Taiwan Strait to move toward comprehensive political
reconciliation.

"All the elements that have hindered and oppressed the
release of the energy of a cross-Strait political
reconciliation continue to exist, and it's unlikely
they will fade away in a short period of time. The
road to political reconciliation across the Taiwan
Strait is of course full of turns and twists. The
biggest obstruction will definitely come from the neo-
conservatisms inside the Bush administration, who
believe that the United States must do all it can to
bar the rising of China. For them, the Taiwan issue is
like a heavy historical burden tied to China's back,
which can considerably consume China's energy and
resources, restrain the flexibility of China's military
strategy, and evidently undermine Beijing's ability and
justification to play a leading role in constructing
security and order in East Asia. If both sides of the
Taiwan Strait move toward comprehensive reconciliation,
it will mean that China has finally lay down a heavy
strategic burden. As a result, the strategic situation
in East Asia will move toward a direction that is
favorable for China's peaceful rising, and Japan will
hesitate all the more about the strategic option of
whether it should join hands with the United States in
containing China. In the end, such a development will
lead to an overall decline of the United States'
leading role in East Asia. But the enormous
transitional energy hidden in the reconciliation across
the Taiwan Strait also gave some Taiwan political
figures who have historical imagination an opportunity
to seek from the Beijing leaders substantial political
concessions and economic development benefits [for
Taiwan]. In fact, given the condition that the power
driving nationalistic movements inside Taiwan is
declining and Taiwan's economics is increasingly
leaning toward mainland China, policy makers in the
United States have begun to worry that Taiwan,
following Seoul, will be the next chess on the
strategic chessboard of East Asia whose position will
likely sway. Accordingly, the United States did not
hesitate to give up its most valuable achievement
during the World War II, which was gained at the
expense of numerous lives: Japan's constitution of
peace. The United States wants to tightly grip its
only reliable strategic partner in East Asia - Japan -
by revising the U.S.-Japan security pact and ostensibly
supporting Japan's bid to become a permanent member of
the UN Security Council. ."

B) "Lien to Report to Bian, and Bian's Crisis of His
Power Being Taken Away Will Be Removed"

Journalist Luo Hsiao-he said in a news analysis in the
pro-unification "United Daily News" (4/24):

"The China visits by [KMT Chairman] Lien Chan and [PFP
Chairman] James Soong in succession have dealt a
serious blow to the prestige of the ruling DPP
government. But following the moves that Soong will
visit China bringing his ten-point consensus with
President Chen Shui-bian, and Lien is willing to report
to Chen about his trip [prior to his departure], the
crisis that Chen's power might be taken away has
finally been eliminated. Chen, following the suit of
the United States, is now happy to support Lien and in
the meantime is trying to keep some room for the
upcoming meeting between Lien and [Chinese President]
Hu Jintao. .

"The whole situation changed subtly following Beijing's
announcement that it was extending an invitation to
Soong. Beijing's two-handed strategy has created a
free-flowing and feasible approach for a [potential]
Chen-Hu meeting in the future and has offered Chen an
opportunity to `get involved' in the heat of Lien's and
Soong's China visits. No matter whether [or not]
Beijing did it because it took into consideration
Washington's push for official talks across the Taiwan
Strait, the move has effectively removed the crisis of
Chen being marginalized. ."

C) "Be Less Tolerant of Lien and Soong"

The pro-independence English-language "Taipei Times"
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (4/24):

". On Tuesday, Randall Schriver, the US deputy
assistant secretary of state in charge of China and
Taiwan issues told reporters that `the leaders in
Beijing will ultimately have to talk to the elected
leaders in Taiwan and the government that is in power.'

"If Beijing is only willing to speak with opposition
leaders such as Lien and People First Party (PFP)
Chairman James Soong, the already complicated cross-
strait relationship will only become more complicated.
So, although Schriver did not criticize Lien and Soong,
it isn't hard to detect some degree of skepticism. The
KMT is obviously aware of this. .

"At the same time, the Presidential Office has
indicated that it is treating the visits by Lien and
Soong as purely private in nature and without any
official status. From that standpoint, the
Presidential Office has indicated support for Lien and
Soong's trips. The government's change in posture
obviously had much to do with the promises conveyed by
Lien and Soong -either through the US or other channels
- to not overstep their bounds.

"The attitude of the Taiwan and US governments can be
interpreted as follows: If you must go, then so long as
you do not do anything illegal, we'll give you the
benefit of the doubt. However, that attitude is way
too tolerant of Lien and Soong. .

". Lien and Soong are also leaders of political
parties. Voters have cast ballots for their parties in
freely-held elections, and in that sense they are
politically accountable to the people of Taiwan. Their
trips have helped ease international pressure on China
for its enactment of the `Anti-Secession' Law and
diverted the Taiwanese public's attention. For that,
they don't deserve the benefit of the doubt from
anyone."

D) "Lien Chan's `Journey of Peace'"

The conservative, pro-unification English-language
"China Post" [circulation: 30,000] noted in an
editorial (4/23):

". Although it is not yet certain s to what Lien Chan
will bring home after the eight-day, four-city `tour of
peace,' one thing seems sure, however. Cross-strait
tensions will ease as a result. Exchanges in the
fields of culture, tourism, economy will improve. The
long-awaited `san tong' (direct trade, transport, and
other links) will get greater momentum. Even political
dialogue between Beijing and Taipei is no longer
impossible. .

"What may leave the `pan green' camp of separatists
sitting resentfully on the sidelines is Washington's
open support for Lien Chan's ice-breaking visit to
China. A spokesman for the State Department said this
week it is a `positive step' for Taiwan's individuals
to visit China. The United States welcomes any move
that will help reduce cross-strait tensions and enhance
mutual understanding, the spokesman said.

"Will these steps lead to an eventual meeting between
Chen Shui-bian and Hu Jintao? Nobody knows. But the
United States would welcome such an eventuality. A Hu-
Chen handshake? Is this too far-fetched? But in
realpolitik, nothing is impossible."

PAAL