PFP LEGISLATOR EMBRACES KMT BANNER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001828

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/18/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: PFP LEGISLATOR EMBRACES KMT BANNER

REF: TAIPEI 01525

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: Popular People First Party (PFP) Legislator
Chou Hsi-wei announced April 13 that he is rejoining the KMT
and intends to participate in the KMT Taipei County
Magistrate primary race. The PFP responded by announcing it
would expel Chou. While Chou did not specify why he was
leaving the PFP, political observers judge that he made his
decision in order to boost his chances of winning the
year-end Taipei County Magistrate election. Few Pan-Blue
insiders were surprised at Chou's decision to leave.
However, they are divided over whether Chou's action would
prompt other PFP legislators to follow suit. While most KMT
members welcomed Chou's return to the fold, KMT contenders in
the intra-party primary for the Taipei County Magistrate race
have responded bitterly, even threatening to run as
independent candidates if the party leadership unfairly
favored Chou's candidacy. Chou's defection has heightened
the sense of crisis within the fragile PFP, and it could be
one more blow to James Soong's eroding control over his
party. It could paradoxically give Soong more flexibility in
upcoming negotiations with the DPP by removing PFP
malcontents, but only at the expense of reducing the overall
value to the DPP of any bargain he offers. End Summary.

The First Domino?
--------------


2. (C) In a much anticipated move, prominent People First
Party (PFP) Legislator Chou Hsi-wei announced on April 13
that he intends to rejoin the KMT under the recently revised
party charter allowing former members to return (Reftel).
While Chou did not specify his reasons for rejoining the KMT,
political observers concluded that he was seeking to boost
his chances to win the Taipei County Magistrate election in
December. One political analyst told AIT that in the current
political atmosphere Pan-Blue voters were more likely to vote
KMT than PFP. Most local observers agree that if both KMT
and PFP run candidates in the Taipei County race, they would
cancel out each other and allow the Democratic Progressive
Party's (DPP) Luo Wen-chia to win the election. In a press
conference to explain his decision, Chou stated that only if
the Pan-Blue coalition united to support a single slate of
candidates could the coalition win in the year-end magistrate
and mayoral elections. He said that he was ready to
participate in the KMT primaries by registering as a KMT
member and "to act as the first stone in paving the road of
future cooperation between the KMT and PFP."


3. (C) Chou told the press that he had informed PFP Chairman
James Soong prior to announcing his decision and had received
Soong's blessing, but PFP Legislative Caucus Whip Lee
Yong-ping disagreed, stating that Chou had not informed Soong
or the PFP leadership. PFP Spokesman Hsieh Kung-ping
announced that the PFP charter does not allow for dual party
membership and that the PFP will strip Chou of his PFP
membership. Party insider Raymond Wu told AIT that Chou
attempted to contact Soong prior to the April 13 announcement
but Soong refused to take his call. This, Wu continued, was
Soong's standard operating procedure -- knowing he could not
dissuade Chou from his decision to leave, Soong avoided
confrontation by delegating his aide Hsia Lung to take Chou's
call.

Abandoning a Sinking Ship
--------------


4. (C) PFP's Raymond Wu told AIT that Chou's disenchantment
with PFP Chairman James Soong dated back to the 2000
presidential campaign when the KMT released damaging
information on Soong that lead to the "Hsin Piao" financial
corruption scandal. So far in his career, Chou has been
untainted by financial and marital scandals and is widely
perceived by his colleagues and the public to be quite
scrupulous in both areas. His more cynical colleagues told
AIT, however, that Chou was angry about the Hsin Piao scandal
not because of any moral concerns but because he felt the
scandal cost Soong the presidential election and, in turn,
derailed Chou's own career ambitions. PFP Legislator Daniel
Hwang (Yih-jiau) told AIT that Chou did not leave the PFP for
ideological reason. He noted that Chou did not even mention
the Chen-Soong meeting in his press conference, adding
"everyone knows it is because he wants to be Taipei County
Magistrate."
Who's Next?
--------------


5. (C) Political observers speculate that Chou's decision to
leave might prompt other PFP legislators to defect from the
shaky PFP. Already a PFP Kaohsiung City Councilor, Lin
Shou-shan, has announced his return to the KMT. PFP
Legislators Liu Wen-hsiung and Chung Shao-ho, candidates for
Keelung City Mayor and Kaohsiung County Magistrate,
respectively, have both vowed to stay with the PFP. PFP
Changhwa County Magistrate candidate Hsieh Chang-chieh,
however, said he would consider all options but promised not
to act rashly. Raymond Wu told AIT that PFP Legislators Lee
Ching-hua and Lee Ching-an -- son and daughter of KMT elder
Lee Huan -- are probably the next to go. He said that PFP
legislators Chiu Yi, Sun Ta-chien, and George Hsieh
(Kuo-liang) are likely to jump ship by the end of the year,
while Lee Yong-ping is on the borderline. Soong loyalist
Daniel Hwang, however, insisted that not even the pro-KMT
elements in the PFP would follow Chou's example. He pointed
out that no one in the PFP has spoken out to defend Chou and
that public opinion has been unfavorable to Chou because his
action is regarded as self-serving. Hwang also noted that
Lee Ching-hua and Lee Ching-an might have been tempted to
leave but now that Chou has stolen the thunder by being the
first there is no incentive for anyone else to defect.

Mixed Feelings Within KMT
--------------


6. (C) The KMT leadership, including KMT Secretary General
Lin Fong-cheng, Taipei City Mayor Ma Ying-jeou and
Legislative Yuan President Wang Jin-pyng, have publicly
welcomed Chou's return to the party. KMT Legislator Alex
Tsai told AIT that he had paved the way for Chou's return to

SIPDIS
the KMT by arranging a meeting between Chou and KMT Chairman
Lien Chan in mid-March. Not everyone in the KMT, however,
has welcomed Chou back into the fold. KMT contenders in
Taipei County Magistrate race, Legislators Lee Chia-chin and
Hung Hsiu-chu, have warned the KMT leadership to conduct the
Taipei County Magistrate primary in a transparent manner.
Lee Chia-chin even said that he would quit the KMT and run as
an independent candidate if he thought the party leadership
unfairly favored Chou.

Comment: Good Riddance?
--------------


7. (C) Chou's defection will heighten the PFP's sense of
crisis and be another blow to James Soong's diminishing
control over his party. The PFP leadership is trying to
prevent further hemorrhaging by immediately announcing that
PFP Legislator Lee Hung-chun from Taipei County -- Soong's
original choice for PFP Caucus leader -- would stand as the
PFP candidate for Taipei County Magistrate. The deep and
growing PFP bitterness toward the KMT, based on the
conviction that the KMT is poaching PFP ranks, does not bode
well for Pan-Blue unity in the December 2005 county/city
elections. From another perspective, however, Chou's return
to the KMT might be a disguised blessing for the PFP
leadership. Departure of Chou and other high profile PFP
malcontents might enable Soong to reassert control of the
frayed party and provide him with more flexibility in
upcoming negotiations with the DPP. However such flexibility
comes at the price of reducing the overall value of a PFP
deal to the DPP as the party's forces are depleted.
PAAL