Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05TAIPEI1525
2005-03-30 09:58:00
CONFIDENTIAL
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Cable title:  

SOONG'S WEAKENING GRIP OVER THE PFP

Tags:  PGOV PINR PREL TW 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

300958Z Mar 05
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 001525 

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL TW
SUBJECT: SOONG'S WEAKENING GRIP OVER THE PFP

REF: A. TAIPEI 00344


B. TAIPEI 00773

C. TAIPEI 01229

D. 2003 TAIPEI 03480

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 001525

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL TW
SUBJECT: SOONG'S WEAKENING GRIP OVER THE PFP

REF: A. TAIPEI 00344


B. TAIPEI 00773

C. TAIPEI 01229

D. 2003 TAIPEI 03480

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: PFP Chairman James Soong's attempts to carve
out an independent political niche for himself in Taiwan may
be under threat from growing disunity within his party. The
February 24 meeting between Soong and President Chen
Shui-bian may have prolonged Soong's political survival but
the PFP-DPP cohabitation arrangement has also driven a wedge
between the PFP and KMT, factionalized the PFP, and raised
questions about whether Soong is actually in charge of the
party he founded after his 2000 presidential bid. This
factor could limit Soong's ability to deliver on any promises
he makes to the DPP over major legislation, including the
special defense procurement budget. End Summary.

End of KFP
--------------


2. (C) Since the December 2004 LY election, People First
Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong has flirted with the DPP as
a means of maximizing the PFP's influence within its Pan-Blue
coalition with the KMT and to prevent absorption of the PFP
into the KMT. Soong's machinations have thus far produced
mixed results. On the one hand, Soong's February 24
cohabitation arrangement with President Chen Shui-bian dashed
KMT hopes for a post-election KMT-PFP merger. Both KMT and
PFP officials tell AIT that a merger, once thought virtually
inevitable by Pan-Blue supporters, is now out of the
question. Local media now use the term "Pan-Blue" only for
the KMT and New Party, once again describing political
alignment in Taiwan as Green, Blue, and ORANGE camps, just as
it did in 2003 before the KMT-PFP alliance. Since the LY
election, the term "kuo-ch'in," (an amalgamation of Chinese
names of KMT and PFP) that was frequently used in the
immediate aftermath of the 2004 presidential election has
virtually vanished from Taiwan's political lexicon.

Disunity within the PFP
--------------


3. (C) James Soong's success in preventing the KMT from
swallowing the PFP may have cost him control of his own once
highly disciplined party. While Soong managed to contain

discontent over the PFP selection of its LY Deputy Speaker
nominee in February (Ref A),his position within the PFP
appears to be weakening with each passing month. He still
faces major fallout from his February 24 meeting with
President Chen (Ref B). PFP LY members pointedly rejected
Soong's nominee for party caucus leader just days after the
Chen-Soong meeting. The same divisions emerged over PFP
participation in the Pan-Blue March 19 rally (Ref C). Both
episodes revealed a three-way, perhaps even four-way, split
within the PFP, with Soong holding sway over only one of
these factions. These intra-party divisions have checked
Soong's maneuvering on legislation, including the special
defense procurement budget and the party leadership's ability
to enforce discipline on decisions taken by Soong on a range
of issues.

Soong's Entourage
--------------


4. (C) Of the various PFP factions, the one faction Soong
still can count on is a group of diehard loyalists that
includes Policy Chief Vincent Chang (Hsien-yao),Legislator
Daniel Hwang (Yih-jiau),and former International Affairs
Director Raymond Wu (though Wu has been on the verge of
accepting positions in the DPP government several times).
There is also a subgroup of dependable lieutenants who are
not part of Soong's inner circle but generally follow Soong's
leadership wherever he goes, notably LY Deputy Speaker Chung
Rong-chi and Acting Secretary General Chin Ching-sheng.
Daniel Hwang remarked to AIT that even though this latter
group "is not close to Soong, they implement Soong's
instructions faithfully and that is good enough." Soong
recruited politicians like Chung and former LY Speaker Liu
Sung-pan (now a fugitive of the Taiwan law, at large in the
United States) in order to bring government and political
experience into the PFP. Most of these individuals were
former KMT members who had been marginalized by the current
KMT leadership. They gravitated to Soong in 2000 hoping that
he would win the presidency and appoint them to high-level
positions. Since their political careers are inextricably
tied to Soong's, they are likely to remain faithful to him.
PFP Vice Chairman Chang Chau-hsiung is in a category of his
own. Despite being ethnic Taiwanese in the
Mainlander-dominanted PFP and his lack of any discernible
ideology, Chang served as Soong's running mate in 2000 and
remains a loyal deputy.

LY Caucus
--------------


5. (C) The PFP LY caucus represents a second independent
center of power within the party. In early March, PFP LY
members elected outspoken PFP Legislator Lee Yong-ping as
their leader, rejecting Soong's loyalist nominee, Lee
Hung-chun. Lee Yong-ping had been a leader of a group of
Pan-Blue "young Turks" that had forced the Pan-Blue
leadership to reverse its positions on referenda and
constitutional revisions during the 2004 presidential
election campaign. Soong reportedly disliked the tactics
espoused by Lee and her cohorts and pointedly marginalized
them after he regained control over the Pan-Blue position in
the final months of the campaign (Ref D). The LY Caucus
rebellion was directed both at Soong personally and the
leadership style of the previous PFP Caucus Leader, Liu
Wen-hsiung. Liu often served as the enforcer, which has
allowed Soong to avoid direct confrontation with his party
subordinates. PFP Legislator Sun Ta-chien told AIT that he
and his colleagues would not stand for another strongman
Caucus Leader like Liu, who simply issued orders without
consulting his colleagues.

Looking Out for Number One
--------------


6. (C) A third group is an ideologically diverse group of
electoral climbers. Since Summer 2004, KMT insiders,
including LY President and KMT Vice Chairman Wang Jin-pyng,
have been telling AIT that a group of fifteen PFP legislators
were preparing to rejoin the KMT. The members of this group
have nothing particular in common with each other and are
generally regarded with suspicion by the rest of the PFP
because their dissatisfaction with Soong appeared to be
motivated purely by self-interest rather than ideology.
Political insiders expect many of these PFP legislators
planning to run in the year-end mayoral and magistrate
elections to try to run under the KMT banner. PFP Legislator
Sun Ta-chien, who is considering a run for Taoyuan County
Magistrate, told AIT that many of his supporters are KMT
members, suggesting that his long-term interests may lie in
that direction. PFP Legislator Lee Ching-an, a likely
candidate for Taipei City Mayor, has been among the most
outspoken critics of Soong's relationship with the DPP, while
her brother, PFP Legislator Lee Ching-hua has been even
harsher in his criticisms (Note: Their father, Lee Huan, has
stayed with the KMT as an elder. End note). Former Caucus
leader Liu Wen-hsiung, planning to run for Keelung City
Mayor, had earlier also been rumored to be considering a
switch to the KMT but has apparently realigned himself with
Soong after the KMT rejected him as a candidate.


7. (C) One of the most notable recent turnarounds in Taiwan
politics has been PFP Legislator Chou Hsi-wei, whose
aggressive public persona came to symbolize the PFP in the
minds of voters. Many observers now, however, expect Chou to
join the KMT in order to secure its nomination for Taipei
County Magistrate. Shortly after LY election, Chou began to
criticize Soong and his party members. Chou has complained
bitterly to AIT that Soong did not provided adequate
leadership in the LY election and characterized his PFP
colleagues as "backbiting and jealous." His colleagues have
returned the favor by spreading rumors that Chou has "been
begging for a job" from the DPP government.

Rank and File: Dazed and Confused
--------------


8. (C) The fourth group consists of the 150 lesser-known
party officials in the Taipei headquarters and county field
offices. These individuals do not necessarily diverge from
Soong or the first three groups ideologically nor do they
struggle for their own platforms. As the other groups
quarrel amongst themselves, however, members of this group
are becoming increasingly disenchanted with both Soong and
the party leadership, and have emerged as an additional drag
on Soong's flexibility. PFP Deputy Public Affairs Director
Liao Wen-chang, who is representative of this otherwise
anonymous group, told AIT that he and his fellow party
officials were "confused about everything." Liao said that
he questioned Soong's leadership and that he feared that the
PFP is about to dissolve. Moreover, Liao said that he feels
so much despair that he now preferred to stay away from party
affairs as much as possible.

Soong Tries to Rally the Troops
--------------

9. (C) Soong loyalists acknowledge that the Chairman's recent
contacts with the DPP have threatened PFP unity. However,
PFP Legislator Daniel Hwang insisted to AIT that Soong had
made progress in convincing his supporters of the wisdom of
his leadership. Prior to the Chen-Soong meeting, Hwang said,
about eighty percent of the PFP LY members supported Soong's
action, while the other twenty percent had reservations.
Hwang explained that Soong had spent several hours pleading
with the dissenters, promising there would be no trade offs
and that no one from the PFP would accept any of the five
positions offered by the DPP government. Despite Soong's
efforts, PFP Legislator Sun Ta-chien was not convinced. Sun
told AIT that more than twenty percent of the PFP LY members
still oppose the meeting and that many are unhappy with Soong
for going ahead with the meeting over their objections.
Asserting that PFP and DPP have fundamentally different
ideologies, Sun told AIT that he sees no ground for
cooperation between the two parties. Sun said that he would
continue to oppose the DPP on the special defense procurement
budget, the Control Yuan nomination list, and the March 19
Truth Commission. In addition, he stated that the "1992
Consensus" (the so-called "one China, different
interpretations" formula espoused by the KMT) was the
centerpiece of the Pan-Blue cross-Strait policy and that he
had publicly criticized the Chen-Soong joint statement for
omitting reference to it. Sun told AIT that he had heard
that Soong said, "If Sun Ta-chien disagrees with me so much
then let him be PFP Chairman."

Comment: Marching to a Different Drummer
--------------


10. (C) Soong's cooperation with the DPP has succeeded in
prolonging his own personal political career, though it is
not clear for how long. Had he not used this ploy to
reposition his PFP outside the Pan-Blue alliance, it is
doubtful that the party could have remained a viable
independent political force. However, Soong's dealings with
the DPP go against the political grain of the PFP's largely
Pan-Blue supporters and will likely not be sustainable for
long. The December local magistrate/mayor elections will
present the PFP with a clear choice -- work with the KMT to
nominate a joint Pan-Blue ticket, which enables PFP
candidates to appeal to their natural Blue bases, or see the
DPP expand its power at the expense of a divided opposition.
PFP politicians, especially those intending to run in
December, are clearly more attuned to this political reality
than Soong. His top priority is remaining in the political
limelight, reportedly with visions of again running for
President in 2008. This interest gap between Soong and his
party raises doubts about how much he will be able to deliver
in policy concessions to fulfill his promises to President
Chen and the DPP government. Adding to his woes, Soong's
former principal fund raiser told the AIT Director that he
was forced to separate himself from Soong and the PFP due to
repeated audits of his firm by Finance Ministry officials.
PAAL