Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05TAIPEI1404
2005-03-26 01:57:00
CONFIDENTIAL
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Cable title:  

WHERE HAVE ALL THE BUSES GONE? -- THE 326 PROTEST

Tags:  PGOV TW 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

260157Z Mar 05
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001404 

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/RSP/TC
DEPT PASS AIT/W
/
FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/24/2015
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: WHERE HAVE ALL THE BUSES GONE? -- THE 326 PROTEST
RALLY


Classified By: ROBERT W. FORDEN, AIT KAOHSIUNG PRINCIPAL OFFICER.
REASON: 1.4(B/D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001404

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/RSP/TC
DEPT PASS AIT/W
/
FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/24/2015
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: WHERE HAVE ALL THE BUSES GONE? -- THE 326 PROTEST
RALLY


Classified By: ROBERT W. FORDEN, AIT KAOHSIUNG PRINCIPAL OFFICER.
REASON: 1.4(B/D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) plans
for a one-million-person rally on March 26 to protest China's
Anti-Secession Law are running into logistical problems.
While Southern Taiwan DPP offices and officials have found no
shortage of supporters willing to participate, they fear a
bus shortage will prevent them from mobilizing enough
supporters to meet quotas assigned by central DPP organizers.
Separately, DPP officials have publicly admitted they are
facing severe funding problems for the mobilization effort
and have turned to television to plea for donations. End
summary.

No Shortage of Those Who Want to Attend the March 26 Rally
-------------- --------------


2. (C) DPP offices in Southern Taiwan have told AIT/K they
are working hard to mobilize supporters to join the planned
March 26 rally in Taipei to protest the PRC's Anti-Secession
Law (ASL). According to several DPP offices, DPP
headquarters had provided each local office with a quota of
supporters it is expected to mobilize to Taipei. All the
local DPP offices told AIT/K that they had no shortage of
supporters who wished to participate in the rally.

But a Lack of Buses to Get Supporters to Taipei
-------------- --


3. (C) Local DPP offices have told AIT/K, however, that they
are running into severe problems finding enough buses to
charter. Chao Wen-nan, Chairman of the Kaohsiung DPP told
AIT/K it had been ordered by the DPP Central Office to fill
276 buses of supporters, or more than 11,000 participants,
for the March 26 rally. As of March 23, however, his office
had enough supporters committed to participate, but he had
only been able to rent 252 buses, leaving them 24 buses
short. He added that in the past three days his office had
only been able to add one more bus to the count, despite
trying every possible source throughout Kaohsiung. He noted
that they could try outside the city, but cannot because DPP
offices in all the surrounding counties were running into the
same problem. For example, Chao noted, the DPP office in
neighboring Pingtung County also had met their quota for
participants but were still 90 buses short and had no way to

transport most of them to Taipei. Although he had no
evidence, Chao wondered whether Pan-Blue supporters were
using influence with local bus companies to dissuade them
from renting their buses to the DPP.


4. (C) AIT/K contacts in DPP offices in neighboring Pingtung
and Tainan Counties as well as in Tainan and Chiayi Cities
all expressed similar frustration about a lack of
transportation for their supporters to attend the March 26
rally. Pingtung's DPP office said its quota was 140 busloads
(5,600 participants),but would not provide details on its
bus situation. The DPP office in Chiayi City told AIT/K its
quota was 84 busloads (3,360 participants) and it had
successfully arranged for 70 buses, but was still 14 short.
Local DPP officials told AIT/K they were exploring other
possibilities for transport, such as the train, but there
were no good alternatives. The train, for example, would
cost them at least three times the cost of putting the same
number of participants on chartered buses.

Empty Promises
--------------


5. (C) Local DPP officials are not concerned about funding
for the mobilization effort, as they have been promised full
subsidies by the DPP Central Office. Both Kaohsiung and
Pingtung County DPP officials told AIT/K that the
mobilization effort would be fully funded by the DPP Central
Office. Pingtung DPP officials said they have been promised
a subsidy of NTD 16,000 (USD 516) from the DPP Central Office
for each busload of supporters they mobilize to Taipei. This
should easily cover the cost of renting a bus and might even
help defray part of the cost of box meals. (Note: This
contradicts the report of LY Member Bi-khim Hsiao to AIT
(Septel) that DPP LY Members are being required to fund the
demonstrators they are directed to organize. End Note.)


6. (C) DPP Central Office organizers, however, are publicly
appealing for donations, citing a lack of funds for the
mobilization. DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang went on Formosa
television network the evening of March 23 to appeal for
donations, reporting that the mobilization effort would cost
NTD 80 million (USD 2.58 million) and that it would need to
rely solely on donations. In an hour-long telethon-type
program that featured running totals of donations called in
by county on the side, Su expressed confidence that at least
230,000 people would attend the rally, provided more funds
could be raised. The county-by-county donation totals
detailed during the program, however, did not appear to
reveal a strong response.
Comment -- Easier Said than Done
--------------


7. (C) While there appears to be no shortage of grassroots
DPP supporters willing to join the rally in Taipei, there
seems less enthusiasm from traditional DPP financial backers
to "pony up" for the rally. Rallies in political campaigns
are often well-financed by those who support an individual
candidate's election, with an expectation of return on the
investment. The March 26 rally is not associated with an
election, but a "cause" and seems, therefore, to be finding
less support from those who traditionally provide funding for
DPP rallies.


8. (C) Between the logistical problems and the funding
shortage, Southern Taiwan, the traditional support base of
the Pan-Green, may not be able to provide as many
participants to the March 26 rally as organizers had hoped.
This may make it difficult to meet the one-million
participant goal set out by President Chen, though DPP
Chairman Su Tseng-chang and other senior DPP officials
publicly continue to express confidence that they will
achieve a quarter of a million participants.
PAAL