3/26 RALLY AIMS TO CONTAIN ANTI-SECESSION LAW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 001403

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STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL CH TW
SUBJECT: 3/26 RALLY AIMS TO CONTAIN ANTI-SECESSION LAW
FALLOUT

REF: TAIPEI 1229

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: President Chen Shui-bian announced on March
24 that he would participate, but not speak at, the March 26
"Use Peace and Democracy to Protect Taiwan" rally in Taipei.
Presidential aides say the rally is aimed at releasing public
anger over the PRC's March 14 enactment of the Anti-Secession
Law in a way that will not further exacerbate cross-Strait
tensions. The government appears to have successfully
blocked attempts by Lee Teng-hui's Taiwan Solidarity Union
(TSU) to recast the rally into a pro-independence event.
Organizers express optimism that they will reach their goal
of one million participants, but acknowledge the rally has
presented immense financial and logistical challenges. While
the rally is expected to draw a large turnout, the crowd is
likely to be almost exclusively Green. Opposition leaders
have criticized Chen's participation in the rally and
declined invitations to attend themselves. End Summary.

Walking the Walk, but Not Talking the Talk
--------------


2. (C) President Chen Shui-bian announced on March 24 that he
would walk with his family in the March 26 "Use Peace and
Democracy to Protect Taiwan" rally organized to protest the
PRC's Anti-Secession Law. Chen said he will "not speak, and
not stand in the front of the line, but rather would walk
with the people and join them in calling out to the other
side (of the Taiwan Strait) that we 'want freedom and love
peace.'" The Taiwan media reported on March 25 that the Chen
administration consulted with both the USG and PFP before
making the announcement over Chen's participation. Several
reports speculated that Chen's decision not to speak was the
result of USG pressure and a few legislators chimed in
charging that Chen was kowtowing to the U.S. Premier Frank
Hsieh (Chang-ting) and other senior Chen administration
officials will also attend, but not speak at, the event.
Hsieh encouraged public servants to take part as well, but
said this was not mandatory and no roll would be taken.


3. (C) Presidential Office Deputy Secretary General Ma
Yung-chen told AIT the decision to have Chen attend the rally
was made to ensure that pro-independence leader and former
President Lee Teng-hui did not steal the show. "If the
President is there, all the media attention will be on him,"
Ma remarked, "if he doesn't attend, Lee will dominate the
public message." National Security Council (NSC) Secretary
General Chiou I-jen told the AIT Director on March 23 that
the DPP had manipulated the arrangements to ensure that the
TSU delegation is not at the front of the crowd and that Lee

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will not have an opportunity to speak at the main event. TSU
Legislative Yuan (LY) Caucus Whip Lai Shin-yuan acknowledged
that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has effectively
marginalized the TSU's role. "Even though the organizing
committee is supposed to be run by NGOs, it is the DPP that
decides every major facet of the event," she asserted. Lai
complained that the TSU has not even been able to find enough
buses to transport its supporters to Taipei, "because the DPP
has rented almost every vehicle on the island."

Fund It and They Will Come
--------------


4. (C) DPP Deputy Secretary General Yen Wan-ching, one of the
rally's main organizers, expressed confidence that the
Saturday rally would achieve its goal of one million
participants. Yen noted that eight percent of respondents to
a DPP internal poll said they would "definitely attend" the
rally. Based on past polling on rallies, Yen said, this
response rate already indicates that participation will be
well over the one million mark. The major problem facing the
organizers now, he continued, was not public interest but
transportation and funding for the 200,000 people the DPP has
pledged to bring to the event. DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang
led a telethon on March 23 to help meet the party's NTD 80
million (USD 2.58 million) funding shortfall, but officials
say their coffers are still empty (Septel). DPP Legislator
Bi-khim Hsiao told AIT the party is forcing its LY Members to
pay out of pocket to mobilize each member's quota of 40
busloads (or 2,100 people) of participants.


5. (C) The march itself will start in ten different locations
around Taipei, each representing a different article of the
Anti-Secession Law. Marchers, who will be divided based on
sponsoring organization, will converge in front of the
Presidential Office building for the final closing ceremony.
NSC Secretary General Chiou noted that President Chen would
go on stage at the end of the march, but only to join a
chorus in singing a traditional Taiwanese folk song. Former
President Lee is expected to speak to a group of farmers and
TSU supporters at one of the ten starting points, but is not

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scheduled to join the President on stage for the event's
closing.

A Green Day
--------------


6. (C) While the DPP appears to have succeeded in keeping
control of the message for the March 26 rally, it has been
less successful in casting the event as a multi-partisan
expression of Taiwan's rejection of the Anti-Secession Law.
Leaders from both the KMT and PFP declined invitations to
join the event, and many opposition figures have criticized
the President for his decision to take part. PFP Policy
Chief Vincent Chang (Hsieh-yao) told AIT that he is
personally sympathetic to the sentiments that will be
expressed on March 26, but noted that if PFP Chairman James
Soong attends the Saturday march after skipping the March 19
KMT rally to protest the election-eve Presidential shooting
(Reftel),he would be excoriated by his supporters. Despite
public criticism of Chen's participation in the March 26
rally, Chang said that Soong "can understand" the President's
decision to take part.


7. (C) Chang expressed surprise, however, over the KMT's plan
to proceed with a visit by party Vice Chairman P.K. Chiang to
the PRC just two days after the rally. "They are really
leaving themselves open to being labeled as out of touch with
Taiwan's public sentiment by acting as if the Anti-Secession
Law didn't even happen," Chang added. Mainland Affairs
Council (MAC) Chairman Joseph Wu told AIT that he tried
unsuccessfully to persuade Chiang not to travel so soon after
the Anti-Secession Law's passage in order to protect Chiang's
own reputation as a defender of Taiwan interests. However,
KMT Organizational Affairs Director Liao Fung-te told AIT
that the KMT does, in fact, firmly believe that the
Anti-Secession Law is not related to the KMT or Taiwan, but
rather targeted only at pro-independence activists within the
DPP.

Coming to Closure
--------------


8. (C) Despite the partisan nature of the event, DPP
government officials are optimistic that the March 26 rally
will allow the government to bring political and media focus
on the Anti-Secession Law to closure. Tamkang University
Professor (and former MAC Vice Chair) Alex Huang told AIT
that the March 14 passage of the Anti-Secession Law marked
the opening of a period and the March 26 rally its end.
Huang expressed confidence that the government will be able
to "get back to serious business" soon after the rally
concludes. NSC Senior Advisor for cross-Strait policy Chen
Chung-hsin offered a similar assessment, but registered
concern that strong PRC public criticism of the March 26
rally could complicate efforts to move beyond the
Anti-Secession Law. Chen said that Taipei has urged Beijing
through various indirect channels to remain silent and let
the march serve as a means to release pressure created by the
Anti-Secession Law's passage.

Comment: Dominating the Message
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9. (C) Logistical challenges and opposition non-participation
notwithstanding, it looks like the March 26 rally will meet
the objectives the Chen administration had set for it. The
DPP appears to have effectively generated enough interest to
ensure a large turnout. It has also kept close control over
the event's themes and managed to portray the march as a
substitute for more problematic alternatives such as a
referendum or countervailing legislation. As things
currently stand, the TSU's proposed "Anti-Invasion Law" bill
shows little chance of making it onto the LY calendar and
calls for a "defensive referendum" are gaining little
traction. Of course, a last minute decision by President
Chen or former President Lee Teng-hui to give a highly
emotional speech at the March 26 rally or a sharp public
statement out of Beijing could yet keep the Anti-Secession
Law on the front burner. However, barring any major
surprises, the March 26 rally should help relieve pressure
from within the Pan-Green base for the government to
fundamentally reorient cross-Strait policy in response to the
PRC's recent legislative actions.
PAAL