MEDIA REACTION: CROSS-STRAIT CHARTER FLIGHTS,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 TAIPEI 000135

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD -
ROBERT PALLADINO
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: CROSS-STRAIT CHARTER FLIGHTS,
U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS


1. Cross-Strait Charter Flights

A) "Both Sides of the Taiwan Strait Seize the
Opportunity to Break the Ice and Create a Win-Win
Situation"

Journalist Chu Chien-ling observed in the centrist, pro-
status quo "China Times" (1/13):

". Judging from the interactions [between the two sides
of the Taiwan Strait] regarding charter flights for the
Chinese New Year, the change of mainland China's
position from insisting on only private-sector
participation in the talks to allowing `technocrats' to
join in the negotiations can be viewed as a concession.
In addition, Beijing kept an open-minded attitude about
the choice of venues for holding the talks. If both
sides of the Taiwan Strait can hold public and formal
talks in places like Beijing that can attract media
attention, the image that `both sides of the Taiwan
Strait have resumed talks' - an image that the DPP
hopes to achieve - will be able to be broadcast to the
world and both sides can get what they need from such a
win-win situation.

"Also, even though Beijing has repeatedly stressed that
the charter flights for the Chinese New Year is merely
a `single case' and China has sought to avoid
[building] the image that both sides of the Taiwan
Strait have `resumed talks,' its recent attempt to
create a friendly atmosphere across the Taiwan Strait
is already very evident. Its next step, without doubt,
will be [to promote] cross-Strait charter cargo
flights, followed by talks on the three links across
the Taiwan Strait. . As a result, why doesn't [Taiwan]
regard the charter flights for the Chinese New Year as
... [signifying] that Beijing intends to achieve
breakthroughs in cross-Strait relations, rather than
being just a `single case.' This opportunity is
closely linked to the following several opportunities,
and only when the first is well handled will there be a
second one. . We can say that charter flights for the
Chinese New Year is a minor matter, whereas how to
control the atmosphere across the Taiwan Strait is
probably of more importance."

B) "Taiwan Government Facing a Dilemma about How to
Respond to [China's Proposal Regarding] the Cross-
Strait Charter Flights Plan"

Journalist Sean Liu said in the conservative, pro-
unification "United Daily News" (1/13):

". Taiwan can of course recognize Beijing's intentions
[regarding cross-Strait charter flights for the Chinese
New Year], so it does not want to accept in one bite
whatever is offered by China. But the Taipei
government is also clearly aware that if the charter
flights plan for the Chinese New Year works, it can
prove to the United States and other countries that
President Chen is truly interested in pushing for
reconciliation across the Taiwan Strait, a move that
can thereby alleviate the international pressure
triggered by [Taiwan's] referendum and name change
plans. The Taipei government is thus facing a dilemma
about how to respond to China's `soft position'
regarding the charter flights plan while retaining its
[original] position on cross-Strait negotiations. As a
result, what appeared to the outside is that the Taipei
government is now stuck at an impasse and dares not to
face reality.

"For Taiwan, if it accepts the negotiation model
proposed by Beijing this time in order to facilitate
the charter flights plan, will it say yes or no to
Beijing if the latter requests later that the two sides
of the Taiwan Strait adopt a similar model when it
comes to talks on some major issues such as the three
links? However, given the general trend to facilitate
cross-Strait charter flights, Taiwan cannot question
Beijing in public now [or else it will] make itself the
`troublemaker' that disrupts the plan."

C) "The Ruling Party Owes Its Voters an Explanation
about the Consequences of [Promoting] Cross-Strait
Charter Flights for the Chinese New Year"

The pro-independence "Liberty Times" editorialized
(1/13):

". In other words, the contents of the DPP government's
negotiations with China regarding charter flights for
the Chinese New Year have overlooked [Taiwan's]
economic safety, national defense security and social
order and have totally disregarded the Taiwan people's
safety and well-being. In addition, the contents have
also violated relevant regulations governing the
relations between people of the two sides of the Taiwan
Strait and have belittled Taiwan's national integrity,
dignity and status. The cross-Strait charter flight
plan for the Chinese New Year is about to kick off, and
a mistake will be made. We thus need to solemnly urge
the DPP government to step on the brakes immediately,
or once such a plan is implemented, direct
transportation across the Taiwan Strait will soon
follow and there will be no days of peace for Taiwan.
The DPP government that has become the ruling party
because of its voters' support should clearly explain
to its voters its position."

D) "Both the Ruling and Opposition Parties in Taiwan
Lack Vigilance about China's `United Front' Tactics"

The pro-independence "Liberty Times" editorialized
(1/12):

". China's plan to enact an anti-secession law is aimed
at creating a legal basis for its [attempt to] use
force against Taiwan. Though China's reasoning on
whether it should use force against the island lies in
its [military] strength rather than the law, the
enactment of such a law can indeed blur the views of
the international community and create psychological
pressure for some Taiwan people. Taiwan and China are
two independent sovereign states that do not belong to
each other. China's enactment of the anti-secession
law will not only violate the tacit agreement of the
international community that the status quo in the
Taiwan Strait should be maintained, but will also
trample on Taiwan's sovereignty and interfere with the
Taiwan people's freedom of speech and freedom of
thinking. It is thus natural for the Taiwan people to
express unanimously their strong doubts and opposition
to such an unruly and reckless law. .

". China is playing a [two-sided policy] toward Taiwan
by using the `anti-secession law' as the stick and
`charter flights for the Chinese New Year' as the
carrot. This fully reflects the vulnerability of
Taiwan and the lack of vigilance of both the ruling and
opposition parties toward China's `united front' and
`armed conflict' tactics. This, without doubt, is the
biggest crisis to face Taiwan's existence."

E) "China Launching a Dual Strategy"

Lin Cheng-yi, Director of the Institute of European and
American Studies at the Academia Sinica, said in the
pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times"
(1/13):

". China's creation of the anti-secession law shows
that [Chinese President] Hu wants to take the
initiative to restrain Taiwan from carrying out a plan
to create a new constitution through a referendum next
year. China has been preparing the legislation for a
long while, but claims that the proposed law is passive
and defensive. China is obviously trying to prevent
not only formal Taiwan independence, but also US
interference.

"After hurting the feelings of the Taiwanese people
with this strategic arrangement, a ray of hope over
charter flights has appeared. Unfortunately, Beijing's
political maneuvering can be seen behind its goodwill.
.

"Although Taipei wants to strike back, it is under
pressure from Washington. But if no action is taken,
this will be interpreted as tacit recognition of
Beijing's action.

"Taipei has purposely defined Beijing's move as an
attempt to unilaterally change the status quo. US
President George W. Bush's government did not criticize
Beijing for the proposed law, unlike its response to
Taipei's holding of a so-called defensive referendum
last year.

"Ironically, Taipei now has to swallow the insult,
accept the delayed charter flight plan designed by
Beijing and study the proposed two-way direct flights
between Taiwan an Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou.
Although Taipei is relatively passive at present, it
should at least express its opinion on the planning of
destinations for the flights. That would be fair play.
"The cross-strait situation seems hopeless and
depressing at times. But it is full of all kinds of
possibilities and turning points. Real peace is surely
impossible. But it is not easy for a war to break out
either. Both sides have to seize this opportunity and
make every effort to boost the economy. Besides, at
least Taiwan, China and the US do have something in
common: avoiding the use of force in the Strait. .

"Despite a few methods proposed to improve cross-strait
relations (such as negotiation mechanisms and
convenient charter flights for passengers and cargo),
there is still a very long way to go reach [sic] true
reconciliation. The charter flights give only minor
relief in a situation of major tension. Although they
will have no significant impact on the overall
framework, we hope that such tiny drips can in the end
break this stone. ."


2. U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations

A) "Anti-secession Law Is a Big Landmine for Taipei-
Washington-Beijing Ties"

Institute for National Policy Research Executive
Director Lo Chih-cheng noted in the pro-independence
"Taiwan Daily" (1/13):

". In general, [China's] proposal of an anti-secession
law likely indicates a change in China's strategic
thinking. Beijing had sought to issue its `May 17
statement' before [President Chen's] May 20 [inaugural
speech] and to promote the anti-secession law. These
two actions show that China attempted to change its
attitude from being passive to pro-active and to adopt
a strategy that sets a framework and draws a red line
for the future cross-Strait situation. The Beijing
authorities have realized that the policy that it
adopted during President Chen's first term in office to
`listen to his words and watch his behaviors' has
resulted in handing the ultimate responsibility of
cross-Strait relations to the Chen Shui-bian
administration and in the end, putting itself in an
unfavorable and passive position. A glimpse of the
anti-secession law can show that Beijing is gradually
adjusting its approach of `listening to [Chen's] words
and watching [his] behavior' and taking back the final
say in cross-Strait issues.

"It is thus expected that during the future
interactions between the two sides of the Taiwan
Strait, Beijing will very likely adopt a preventive, or
even a pre-emptive, approach in order to guide or lead
the possible future direction of the cross-Strait
situation. .

"In short, China's promotion of the anti-secession law
seems like a passive tactic, but what it is thinking
actually is to pursue a proactive strategy; its way to
change the de jure status quo in the Taiwan Strait can
even turn out to be a provocative move. Beijing
claimed that the purpose of the anti-secession law is
to stabilize the cross-Strait situation, but in
reality, it is laying a big landmine in cross-Strait
relations. As China continues to promote the anti-
secession law, whether it will be Taiwan, the United
States, or even China itself that will step on the
landmine is something that the international community
must be mentally prepared for."

B) "Two Governments, Three Rivals"

Lin Cheng-yi, Research Fellow and Director of the
Institute of International Relations, National Chengchi
University, said in a commentary in the pro-status quo
"China Times" (1/13):

". After some surprise developments in Taiwan-U.S.
relations, [Taiwan President] Chen Shui-bian probably
faces President George W. Bush, the self-centered,
stubborn and righteous U.S. leader, as a new opponent.
That will add to Chen's short list of political rivals
[that contains the names] Lien-Soong and Hu Jintao. .

"In terms of U.S.-China-Taiwan relations, any Taiwan
leader can face the scenario with Taiwan confronting
the two countries, as the United States and China have
taken similar approaches in key issues. As President
Kennedy tactfully joined Mao Zedong in blocking Chiang
Kai-shek's plan to retake Mainland China, President
George W. Bush may cooperate with Hu Jintao in stopping
Chen's attempt to sever Taiwan from China. .

". The two governments across the Taiwan Strait have
their own principals in major policies, but they both
have showed signs of easing in minor issues and have
relayed the message to the Bush administration that
their governments can be flexible regarding cross-
Strait relations. Against such a background, a new
cross-Strait concept that the United States should be
regarded as a helper instead of an opponent has taken
shape.

"President Chen's worst scenario is to concurrently
confront the opposition parties, China and the United
States as enemies .. To the United States and China,
Taiwan is trying to change the status quo, which China
has maintained. The concept, which could be attributed
to the success of China's propaganda, points out that
Taiwan is walking a narrow road under the structure of
two governments and three rivals."

C) "Back U.S., Japan to Face PRC Threat"

The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News"
said in an editorial (1/12):

". The rapid expansion of China's military clout is
already causing serious imbalances in power in East
Asia. The PRC is already well on its way to gaining a
military edge in the Taiwan Strait and clearly has
ambitions to become the dominant military power in East
Asia.

"Whether the U.S. and Japan can join hands and
effectively cooperate will be the decisive factor that
will determine the stability of the Taiwan Strait and
even East Asia as a whole.

"While we applaud the participation of numerous Taiwan
civic and social movement groups in world peace
efforts, including the `Global Partnership for the
Prevention of Armed Conflict,' we must note that
Taiwan's 23 million people cannot yet afford to naively
rely for their national security on the global peace
movement, especially in the light of Beijing's proposed
`anti-splittist' law which would provide a quasi-legal
pretext for attacks on Taiwan.

"Defensive weaponry, such as anti-missile missile
systems, anti-submarine patrol aircraft and even some
convention submarines are needed to ensure that PRC
hardliners cannot enjoy full confidence in a military
adventure and to give the defense forces of the U.S.
and Japan and other allies and the world peace movement
to act."

D) "It's Time for a Peaceful Cross-Strait Settlement"

Antonio Chiang, former deputy secretary-general of the
National Security Council, wrote in the pro-
independence, English-language "Taipei Times" (1/13):

". The proposition of the anti-secession law is of
course meant as a response to Taiwan's Referendum Law.
The Referendum Law is an anti-unification law, and the
anti-secession law is an anti-Taiwan independence law.
The anti-unification legislation, however, is
substantive, because the two sides of the Taiwan Strait
are separated, while the anti-secession law is empty,
since it supports that the current status quo is one of
unity. .

"Taiwan's geographical position decides various formal,
substantive and spiritual unification-independence
relationships, where unification encompasses
independence and independence encompasses unification.
Sometimes unification holds the upper hand, and
sometimes independence does. This is the realistic
world where we must learn to coexist peacefully with
China."

PAAL