MARCH 19 RALLY ATTACKS CHEN, SOONG, AND MA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001229

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/22/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL TW
SUBJECT: MARCH 19 RALLY ATTACKS CHEN, SOONG, AND MA

REF: TAIPEI 01187

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: The KMT's March 19 rally was more
significant for the drama behind the scenes than what
unfolded on stage. Although originally organized to protest
the DPP government's handling of last year's election eve
shooting of President Chen and VP Lu, the rally deteriorated
into a pair of mudslinging matches between People First Party
(PFP) Chairman James Soong and the KMT on one hand, and
between Legislative Yuan (LY) President Wang Jin-pyng and
Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou on the other hand. KMT Chairman
Lien Chan used the rally to call for a second commission to
investigate the March 19, 2004 shooting and blamed the DPP
government's pro-independence activities for increasing
cross-Strait tensions and for inciting Beijing to enact the
Anti-Secession Law. Although the KMT announced it would
mobilize 100,000 participants, Taiwan police estimated that
only around 20,000 attended the parade and rally. End
Summary.

Self-Inflicted Wounds
--------------


2. (SBU) The KMT had originally organized the March 19 parade
and rally to protest the DPP government's investigation of
last year's election eve shooting of President Chen Shui-bian
and VP Annette Lu in Tainan. The rally itself, however, was
overshadowed by the media focus on the PRC Anti-Secession Law
and on intra-Pan-Blue rivalries. Moreover, the media image
of the rally was of a pair of mudslinging matches between
People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong and the KMT on
one hand, and between Legislative Yuan (LY) President Wang
Jin-pyng and Taipei City Mayor Ma Ying-jeou on the other hand.

Conspicuous Absence and Presence
--------------


3. (C) Many of the participants interviewed by the media
during the March 19 rally focused their wrath more on James
Soong's absence from the protest than Chen Shui-bian's
presence in the Presidential Office. Although Soong decided
to stay away from the March 19 rally, a sizable number of PFP
legislators marched with the demonstrators. PFP Policy Chief
and Legislator Vincent Chang (Hsien-yao) both publicly and
privately dismissed media reports that Soong had instructed
PFP members to avoid the rally. Chang told AIT that there
were no such orders and that PFP members were free to attend
the rally as individuals. At least ten PFP legislators,
including Chou Hsi-wei, Lee Yong-ping, Sun Ta-chien, Lee
Ching-hua, and Chiu Yi, were present at the march and rally.
(Comment: This would fit Soong's SOP. He usually will not
get involved in a fight he cannot win. In this case, it was
clear that some PFP members would march regardless of what
Soong said. Given that, Soong most likely refrained from
issuing futile instructions. End Comment)


4. (SBU) While Lien Chan spoke of unity within the Pan-Blue
camp, New Party Chairman Yok Mu-ming told the crowd to
"forget about the people who have left and support those who
are united." Several leading PFP politicians publicly
criticized their Chairman for failing to show. During the
rally, an elderly member of the Concentric Patriotism
Association of the Republic of China suddenly ran to the
front of the crowd and pulled out a knife in an apparent
attempt to commit ritual suicide by gutting himself. After
he was forcibly halted, the protester told reporters that he
wanted to express his discontent with Soong for betraying the
Pan-Blue alliance by his joint statement with Chen.

Turning the Guns on Ma
--------------


5. (C) In the lead-up to March 19, Soong attempted to deflect
criticism by blaming Ma for the Pan-Blue defeat in the 2004
presidential race. Soong told the media that it was Ma who
advised canceling all campaign rallies on the eve of the
election after the shooting took place. At the March 19
rally, Wang Jin-pyng repeated Soong's insinuations against Ma
by stating that it was a mistake for the KMT to have canceled
the rallies that were scheduled to take place on the night of
the shooting. Wang said that the rallies would have boosted
the morale of the Pan-Blue supporters. "By canceling the
rallies," he continued, "the media focused instead on the
shooting, distracted the public, and consequently, Lien and
Soong lost the election." PFP Legislator Hwang Yih-jiau told
AIT that Soong blames Ma for more than just canceling the
election eve rallies. Hwang said that many Pan-Blue insiders
now believe that Ma deliberately sabotaged the entire
Lien-Soong presidential campaign effort to advance his own
presidential ambitions.

Meanwhile, Back at the Rally
--------------


6. (C) The March 19 rally itself was far smaller than
organizers had promised. KMT Organizational Development
Chairman Liao Fung-te had told AIT that the party planned to
mobilize 50,000 Pan-Blue supporters. In an effort to
increase turnout, the KMT later announced it expected 100,000
to attend. Initially, broadcast media reported a turnout of
300,000 and Wang Jin-pyng claimed to AIT a turnout of
150,000. Taiwan police, however, estimated the number of
participants at 20,000. KMT/New Party Legislator Joanna Lei
(Chien) told AIT that the rally was largely a New Party
effort. She said that weeks prior to March 19 she was
shocked to learn that the KMT headquarters had nothing
planned. Lei said that she and her New Party colleagues
provided behind-the-scene guidance and support, and asked the
KMT to provide funding and resources. She also remarked that
New Party members merely wanted to see action and results,
and that in the future they will gladly provide backstage
support but allow the KMT organization to take the credit.


7. (SBU) In his speech to the crowd in what was billed as the
"March 19 Democracy, Peace, and Truth" rally, KMT Chairman
Lien Chan pledged that "the search for truth will not stop
until the truth is found," and urged opposition lawmakers to
rush through legislation to create a second March 19 Truth
Investigation Committee. Lien also blamed the DPP's
pro-independence activities for the worsening of cross-Strait
relations, saying that "as long as we do not declare Taiwan
independence, China will not attack Taiwan." Wang Jin-pyng
and Ma Ying-jeou echoed Lien's call for a second
investigation committee and for peaceful cross-Strait
relations. Criticizing President Chen for threatening
cross-Strait peace, Ma claimed that China passed the
Anti-Secession Law because of the DPP government's plans to
deviate from the Republic of China Constitution and Chen's
failure to abide by his "four noes" pledge.


8. (SBU) Speaking in Tainan on the same day, President Chen
offered to discuss the creation of a "constitutionally
consistent" March 19 investigation commission, and suggested
that Lien Chan and James Soong co-chair the commission.

Comment: Stage Directions
--------------


9. (C) The KMT's March 19 rally was more significant for the
political backbiting that took place on its margins than what
unfolded on stage. Just as the KMT had allowed its coalition
partner PFP to drive policy in the heyday of their alliance,
the KMT now permits the New Party faction (four legislators
and a handful of party members) to act as the engine of the
rump Pan-Blue alliance. Playing to the crowd, Ma and Wang
each stood by Lien's side and reiterated Lien's message in an
attempt to cast himself as his preferred heir apparent. The
absence of Soong and the presence of a significant number of
his PFP colleagues at the rally suggest that there may be
more "Pan-Blue" unity than PFP unity (Septel).
PAAL