ANNIVERSARY PROTEST OF MARCH 19 SHOOTING LARGELY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001187

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/18/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV ASEC TW
SUBJECT: ANNIVERSARY PROTEST OF MARCH 19 SHOOTING LARGELY
SYMBOLIC

REF: A. TAIPEI 00955


B. TAIPEI 01076

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reasons: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: Pan-Blue officials have told AIT that the
planned March 19 rally to protest the one-year anniversary of
the shooting of President Chen Shui-bian and Vice President
Annette Lu is primarily to placate KMT Chairman Lien Chan.
Though there are widespread doubts among Pan-Blue -- and not
a few Pan-Green -- supporters regarding last week's
announcement by the Tainan Criminal Investigation Department
(CID) of a breakthrough in the shooting investigation, the
level of public reaction has been remarkably modest, given
the week of angry, boisterous protest demonstrations last
Spring. The March 19 shooting investigation has stoked a
year of conspiracy theories and deep suspicions about the
timing of the CID announcement. Nevertheless Pan-Blue
officials maintain that many want to move on and that the
rally is being held solely out of respect for KMT Chairman
Lien Chan and his continuing bitterness over the election
outcome. On the other hand, James Soong, Chairman of the
KMT's erstwhile coalition partner, People First Party (PFP),
will not attend the rally, and PFP legislators planning to
attend say they will do so only to appease constituents who
support Lien. News coverage of the investigation and the
March 19 rally has been overshadowed by media focus on the
PRC Anti-Secession Law and the planned "million-person"
protest rally on March 26, which will probably reduce the
number of March 19 participants substantially below the
projected target of fifty thousand. End summary.

A Rally For An Embittered Lien Chan
--------------


2. (C) In private, Pan-Blue officials candidly admit to AIT
that the rally planned on March 19 to protest the one-year
anniversary of the shooting of President Chen and Vice
President Lu is being organized on behalf of KMT Chairman
Lien Chan and fringe elements of the KMT and PFP. According
to KMT spokeswoman Cheng Li-wen, organizers are expecting
around 50,000 protesters with Lien, Taipei Mayor Ma
Ying-jeou, and Legislative Yuan (LY) Speaker Wang Jin-pyng in
attendance. However, KMT Organizational Development
Committee Chairman Liao Fung-te privately told AIT that the
KMT is organizing the rally just "to comfort Lien Chan." He
said that Lien firmly believes the shooting robbed him of the
election and, since it is the anniversary of the shooting,
out of respect for Lien, the party "has to do something."
Liao told AIT that other than that reason, there is no
significance to the rally and he is expecting no more than
50,000 protesters.

Doubts Over CID Investigation Breakthrough
--------------


3. (C) There is widespread doubt among most Pan-Blue and many
Pan-Green supporters over the March 19 shooting investigation
breakthrough announced two weeks ago by the CID (Ref A). KMT
Chairman Lien Chan called the report an insult to the wisdom
of the people of Taiwan and said the CID taskforce had left
many questions unanswered. The PFP called for CID to
continue its investigation, with some PFP lawmakers reporting
that almost no one in the LY believed CID's claims and
evidence. Even Vice President Lu and Premier Frank Hsieh
expressed reservations about the alleged breakthrough. Vice
President Lu called on the CID to find more compelling
evidence to convince the people, including herself, while
Hsieh urged that prosecutors to disclose as many facts as
possible for the sake of social and political stability.


4. (C) The Taiwan public also is skeptical of the new
evidence announced by the Tainan CID. According to a poll
conducted by the Blue-leaning China Times, 26 percent of
those polled believed the CID's findings while 51 percent did
not. The United Daily News also conducted a poll with 57
percent saying the evidence was not strong enough and only 22
percent saying they accept it. A neighbor of deceased
suspect Chen Yi-hsiung told AIT that there were many holes in
the government's claim that Chen was behind the shooting and
that she did not believe he did it. The neighbor asserted to
AIT that the investigators were putting too much emphasis on
the observation that Chen quickly left the scene of the
shooting. She said that he always walked at a brisk pace.
The neighbor also hypothesized that the government is paying
the family off to take the fall because the government has
moved them out of their home to an undisclosed hotel.

Fueling Conspiracy Theories
--------------


5. (C) The CID shooting investigation's unanswered questions
are fueling even more conspiracy theories about the shooting.
Professor Emile Sheng from Soochow University told AIT that
he had heard from his sources that PFP Chairman Soong's
reconciliation with President Chen was behind the CID
breakthrough, which was announced only days before the one
year anniversary of the assassination attempt. Sheng said
his sources believed that during Soong's recent meeting with
President Chen, Soong asked Chen to order the CID
investigation team to announce the investigation breakthrough
so Soong could back out of the planned Pan-Blue protests and
distance himself from Lien Chan. (Note: PFP Policy Chief
Vincent Chang, who accompanied Soong to his meeting with
President Chen told AIT that Soong made no such request. End
Note) Sheng also said that some in the Pan-Blue camp claim
the investigation announcement was timed by the government to
distract the public from Beijing's Anti-Secession Law.

But Time to Move On
--------------


6. (C) Officials from both camps say despite doubts over the
investigation most voters want to move on and do not want
continued political deadlock. The PFP's Soong publicly
stated that he respected the incredulity of Pan-Blue
supporters, but that the PFP would not mobilize supporters to
take part in the rally. PFP Policy Chief Vincent Chang told
AIT that Soong's attendance would not be constructive for
efforts to mend political ties with the Pan-Green,
particularly after Soong's recent public reconciliation with
President Chen. Chang added that the only reason some PFP
legislators would be attending the rally was because some of
their constituents still support Lien Chan. Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) Secretary General Lee Yi-yang said
the rally would not lead to further hostility between the
Pan-Blue and Pan-Green because the people want to move on and
that tensions have eased between both sides since last year's
election.

Comment: 3/19 Rally and Investigation Overshadowed
-------------- --------------


7. (C) There is considerable doubt among the Taiwan populace
over the Tainan CID's March 19 shooting investigation
breakthrough announcement. However, despite questions about
the evidence in the investigation, the planned rally is
largely symbolic for all except Lien Chan and his most
stalwart supporters, who remain deeply embittered over last
year's presidential election results. The Pan-Blue's
expected 50,000 protesters is a small cry from the rallies of
hundreds of thousands of protesters immediately following
last year's presidential election. Moreover, the current
focus of media and public attention on Beijing's
Anti-Secession Law and the planned March 26 "million-person"
protest rally has overshadowed the planned March 19 shooting
anniversary rally, suggesting that even this more modest
expectation may not be realized.
PAAL