MEDIA REACTION: CHINA'S ANTI-SECESSION LAW

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 TAIPEI 001090

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD -
ROBERT PALLADINO
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: CHINA'S ANTI-SECESSION LAW


1. Summary: Major newspapers in Taiwan continue to
scrutinize the progress and possible impact of China's
anti-secession law. Taiwan newspapers played up
comments made by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
that maintain that the law clearly raises cross-Strait
tensions and several reported on possible moves the
United States would take following the legislation of
the law. The centrist "China Times," in a Washington
dispatch on page three, reported March 14 that
Secretary of State Rice might urge Beijing to make a

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good-will gesture toward Taiwan when she visits China
later this month. The pro-independence "Taiwan Daily,"
in a page-three story March 14, quoted sources close to
President Chen Shui-bian as saying Taiwan is likely to
adjust its cross-Strait policy in the wake of the
legislation of the anti-secession law.


2. A news analysis in the pro-independence "Liberty
Times" said Beijing's mention of using non-peaceful
means to resolve the Taiwan issue will force the United
States, Japan and European Union to seriously ponder
the possibility of a war breaking out in the Taiwan
Strait -- and, as a result of this contemplation, to
seriously consider strengthening their county's
cooperation with Taiwan. A "Taiwan Daily" article by
Washington correspondent James Wang urged Washington
and Tokyo to review their obsolete "one China" policies
and to look into the fact of Taiwan's democratization
and China's hegemonic mindset. The editorial of the
limited-circulation, pro-independence "Taiwan News"
also urged the Chen Shui-bian administration to seek
more explicit support from the international community,
especially from the United States and Japan, to protect
Taiwan's hard-won democracy in the face of Beijing's
militarism and unilateralism.


3. The centrist "China Times," on the other hand,
suggested in its editorial that both the ruling and
opposition parties in Taiwan recognize and treat the
"Republic of China" as the greatest common denominator.
By doing so, the editorial said, it will all the more
highlight the flaw in legitimacy of Beijing's anti-
secession law. A "United Daily News" news analysis
questioned the Chen Shui-bian administration's plan to
hold a mass rally on March 26 because it is unsure
whether such a move will lead to confrontation or
reconciliation across the Taiwan Strait. A limited-
circulation, pro-unification, English-language "China
Post" editorial said one can foresee strained relations
across the Taiwan Strait as well as some uncertainty in
Washington-Beijing ties in the aftermath of the passage
of the anti-secession law. End summary.

A) "Taiwan Should Make More Prior Arrangements for
Cross-Strait Situation"

Washington correspondent Nadia Tsao wrote in the pro-
independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 800,000]
(3/13):

". It is understood that the United States not only
does not support the anti-secession law, but also
lobbies Japan, New Zealand, Australia, and the European
Union countries such as the United Kingdom to express
their concerns [toward China]. It is clear for the
international community that Taiwan at best can trigger
a war once it declares independence, but it is China
that is solely capable of waging a war [in the Taiwan
Strait].

"Beijing's attempt to adopt anti-secession law,
especially the non-peaceful measures to solve the
Taiwan issue, will force the United States, Japan, and
the European Union to seriously ponder on the
possibility of a war breaking out across the Taiwan
Strait. They will also contemplate on the contingency
plans and the possible damage a cross-Strait war may
bring to the entire regional balance, and as a result,
their cooperation with Taiwan would only be
strengthened. Former U.S. Secretary of State Collin
Powell once said the way Beijing adopts to resolve the
cross-Strait issue will influence how other countries
view China's emergence. China's insistence on pushing
for the passage of the anti-secession law is in reality
promoting the credibility of the China threat theory to
the international community. Other than making use of
the current situation and putting hope in the United
States and Japan, Taiwan should work harder on its
relations with the Asian countries which still keep
silent or even acquiesce to China's position."

B) "The International Community Should Take Actions to
Counter and to Balance China's Anti-secession Law"

Washington correspondent James Wang wrote in the
"Washington Review" column of the pro-independence
"Taiwan Daily" [circulation: 150,000] (3/14):

". No matter how China tries to explain or cover it up,
the anti-secession law does not merely involve issues
concerning Taiwan's interests, but also seriously
provokes Washington's understanding of the
normalization of U.S.-China relations, the United
States' vital interests as well as its laws. The anti-
secession law has fundamentally challenged two major
U.S. policies toward the Taiwan Strait: the facts that
the United States has not acknowledged China or PRC's
sovereignty over Taiwan, and that cross-Strait
differences should be solved peacefully. .

"The United States and Japan should re-evaluate the out-
of-date `one China' policy, and review again the fact
of Taiwan's democratization and the wills of the people
in Taiwan. They should also face China's hegemonic
mentality and its attempt to ruin the more than 50
years' status quo in East Asia. The United States
should also realize that its refusal to recognize
Taiwan as a sovereign state for 26 years has only
fostered China's ambition to ruin the status quo and to
annex Taiwan. The United States does not want to see
Taiwan adopt drastic countermeasures, but and the most
appropriate, most efficient and most timely fashioned
way is to coordinate other democracies to establish
normal diplomatic relations with Taiwan and to
officially recognize Taiwan's current status as a
sovereign state in the name of `Republic of China.'"

C) "Use Democracy to Counter PRC `Law'"

The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News"
[circulation: 20,000] editorialized (3/14):

". We strongly encourage the Chen administration to
accurately weigh international reactions and concerns
and ensure that any response or countermeasures to the
PRC law are adopted and designed to protect our
democracy and are not being made merely for the sake of
domestic consumption.

"By adhering to the principles of democracy and peace,
Taiwan can contrast its principled response with
Beijing's unilateral and callous and anti-democratic
maneuver. Besides correcting our long-distorted image
as a `trouble maker' in cross-strait relations, a
pragmatic response will show the world that it is
Beijing that is actually rocking the boat or `pushing
the envelope' in the Taiwan Strait. .

"Since the `anti-secession law' poses a `clear and
present' danger and threat not only to the people of
Taiwan but also to regional peace and stability, the
DPP government should also ask for more explicit
support from the international community, especially
the U.S. and Japan, to protect our hard-won democracy
in the face of Beijing's militarism and unilateralism.

"Incorporation of Taiwan into the U.S.-Japan security
dialogue and the passage of proactive legislation to
safeguard Taiwan's security in the face of this
qualitatively new threat are steps that should be
fostered. ..."

D) "To Love the Republic of China is Practically the
Only Way to Love Taiwan"

The centrist, pro-status quo "China Times"
[circulation: 600,000] editorialized (3/12):

". [W]hen it comes to [the issue that] the Republic of
China (ROC) is not tantamount to Taiwan independence,
it is in fact a position that we have advocated for
many years. As for anti-separation, needless [for
Beijing] to day, we have always been opposed to the
splittism movements pushing for Taiwan independence.
For the part of the ROC, the idea to establish another
independent country [other than the ROC] is more than a
betrayal for the ROC; moreover, it has never become a
mainstream public view in Taiwan's politically diverse
society. Besides, in terms of political reality, the
pursuit of Taiwan independence and building a new
country will only evoke irrational use of force from
Beijing and lead Taiwan to an immediate disaster. This
is certainly not an action that a responsible
government should do. .

"[When we examine] the current political reality, the
ROC in Taiwan and the PRC on the mainland, despite the
fact that they are not equal with regard to territory,
population, or national strength, are separate
political entities whose powers of governing do not
cover each other. . Thus, as long as Taiwan
acknowledges the ROC and treats it as the greatest
common denominator for both the ruling and opposition
parties, Beijing's insistence on enacting the anti-
secession law would only highlight its major flaws of
legitimacy and necessity [to do so]. To protect and
safeguard Taiwan, [we must] protect and safeguard the
ROC. [We need to] get rid of the impractical and
dangerous illusion of seeking Taiwan independence
because to love the ROC is exactly the only way to love
Taiwan."

E) "[Taiwan] Government Upgrading Reaction; Is It a
Move toward Confrontation or Reconciliation?"

Journalist Sean Liu observed in the conservative, pro-
unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 600,000]
(3/13):

". Over the past few years, the Taiwan government, in
consideration of its domestic political situation and
elections, insisted on promoting issues such as the
`one country on each side of the Taiwan Strait'
doctrine, referendum, writing of a new constitution and
rectification of Taiwan's name - all of which have
resulted in a severe damage to the mutual trust
foundation between Taiwan and the United States.
Recently, because of President Chen's adjustments in
his behaviors, no evident conflict has occurred between
the two. But still, the U.S. government has doubts
about the possible direction the Chen Shui-bian
administration might take with regard to cross-Strait
issues, and it continued to `listen to [Chen's] words
and watch his behaviors. .'

"China's promotion of the `non-peaceful' anti-secession
law has offered Taiwan, originally badly defeated in
the triangular relationship between Washington, Beijing
and Taipei, an opportunity to catch up. But the
question of whether President Chen will be able to
resist temptations of domestic political gains and
prevent himself from falling into the same trap will
determine whether Taiwan will be able to secure a
victory in this round of game and keep its results from
the battlefield. ."

F) "On Collision Course"

The conservative, pro-unification, English-language
"China Post" [circulation: 30,000] noted in an
editorial (3/12):

". In the aftermath of the [anti-secession] law's
passage, one can foresee strained relations across the
Taiwan Strait as well as some uncertainly in Sino-U.S.
ties. President Bush and his hawkish secretary of
state Condoleezza Rice many not remain silent if they
see the law as a unilateral decision to change the
status quo. Rice will visit Beijing later this month
to express U.S. concerns about the law.

"Taiwan's reaction is more measured, a far cry from the
usually angry outbursts during the past. President
Chen Shui-bian said on Thursday that he was grateful
for the deep concerns expressed by the United States
about Beijing's anti-secession law. The president also
correctly pointed out that the biggest obstacle lying
across the Taiwan Strait is not political division, but
the gap of political systems. Only when this gap
narrows down, he said, can the two sides come closer.

"Is there a silver lining to the dark cloud? Not in
the foreseeable future. Hu Jintao's olive branch
extended to Chen Shui-bian last week call for the
recognition of the `1992 consensus' on one China.
That's the pre-condition for a cross-strait dialogue
and rapprochement. Chen can't afford to yield on that
point, which is seen as a `betrayal of Taiwan' by his
comrades. Beijing, on the other hand, is equally
inflexible on the consensus reached 13 years ago in
Hong Kong regarding the definition of one China.
Without a breakthrough on that stalemate, there's no
prospect for a thaw in relations, at least during
Chen's presidency."

PAAL