ANTI-SECESSION LAW: BALANCING GAME

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001037

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV CH TW
SUBJECT: ANTI-SECESSION LAW: BALANCING GAME

REF: A. TAIPEI 956

B. TAIPEI 992 (NOTAL)

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (S) Summary: Taiwan National Security Council (NSC)
officials tell AIT that President Chen Shui-bian believes the
USG's public reaction to the PRC Anti-Secession Law draft
will help moderate public demands for a strong official
response from Taipei. Nevertheless, officials say there
remains strong pressure from the President's Pan-Green base
for Chen to lead a planned March 26 mass rally called by the
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to protest the PRC law.
People First Party (PFP) officials warn that if Chen takes
part in the demonstration, it will make further cooperation
with the Chen administration impossible. In order to address
the requirements of both parties, and at the same time send a
clear signal to Beijing, AIT has encouraged the Presidential
Office and PFP to react to the PRC's expected March 14
passage of the law by announcing a plan for enhancing
Taiwan's defense capabilities, including through accelerated
legislative action on the Special Defense Procurement Budget.
PFP and Presidential Office officials have agreed to discuss
this proposal within the next two days. End Summary.

USG Cover
--------------


2. (C) Chen administration officials expressed appreciation
for USG statements on March 8 and 9 over the Anti-Secession
Law. NSC Senior Advisor for political affairs Lin Jin-chang
told AIT that President Chen was particularly pleased at the
robust U.S. response. Lin said that the President believes
the USG statements will help him resist pressures from within
his political base to take a strong reaction. In light of
the U.S. reaction, and the contents of the draft law, Lin
said the NSC has been able to hold the line established
before the March 8 release of the text (Ref A). However, Lin
complained that other senior officials, including Vice
President Annette Lu and Premier Frank Hsieh, have strayed
from the NSC-established line in their public commentary on
the new law.


3. (C) Lin's cross-Strait counterpart, NSC Senior Advisor for
cross-Strait affairs Chen Chung-hsin, told AIT that the
Mainland Affairs Council's (MAC) shrill public reaction on
March 9 has been particularly unfortunate. Chen noted that
MAC "declined" the NSC's suggestion that it offer a measured
response to PRC National People's Congress (NPC) Vice
Chairman Wang Zhaoguo's March 8 explanation of the proposed
law. (Comment: MAC also rejected the same suggestions from
AIT citing the need to respond to domestic pressure, Ref B.
End Comment.) Chen added that there are still differences
between the NSC and MAC leadership over the draft law's
contents. He told AIT that Taiwan still objects to certain
elements of the law, particularly its wide definition of
actions that would provoke a "non-peaceful" response (Article
8) and its formulation over the relationship between China
and Taiwan (Article 2).


4. (C) In contrast, MAC Chairman Joseph Wu told AIT there was
no substantive difference between the March 8 "explanation"
given by NPC Vice Chair Wang and the draft law text obtained
by the Taiwan media. "Sure there are lots of positive things
in the text," he commented, "but they are totally
overshadowed by the non-peaceful methods portion."

President Chen Silent... for the Moment
--------------


5. (C) Despite a series of strongly-worded public statements
by the Premier and Vice President on March 8-9, the NSC's Lin
told AIT that the President himself will withhold public
commentary on the Anti-Secession Law until March 14, when
Taipei expects the NPC to take action. Lin disputed media
reports that Chen has decided to lead a proposed mass rally
on March 26 organized by DPP headquarters. Lin asserted that
Chen has urged the DPP to tone down its themes for the rally,
replacing "Anti-Annexation Law" themes with slogans such as
"peace" and "democracy." Presidential Office Secretary Liu
Shih-chung told AIT that DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang will
meet with Chen again soon to raise the President's
participation in the rally, but emphasized that there has
been no formal deliberations over the matter.

PFP: March 26 Rally is a Dealbreaker
--------------

6. (C) PFP Policy Chief (and Legislator) Vincent Chang
(Hsien-yao) told AIT party Chairman James Soong is deeply
worried over the March 26 DPP rally. "If Chen leads the
march, there is no way Soong can maintain his recent
cooperation with the President," Chang asserted. Chang, who
co-chairs the PFP-Presidential Office working group with
Presidential Deputy Secretary General James Huang, said the
PFP does not welcome the PRC's new law, but maintains that
Taiwan should avoid a harsh response in order to reduce
chances for a cycle of provocations and counter-provocations
over the issue. He added that PFP supporters could not
accept Soong's continued alignment with the DPP if Chen were
to be seen as returning to the provocative nationalistic
themes of the past three years.

AIT: A Good Defense is a Good Defense
--------------


7. (S) Noting that both Chen and Soong are facing conflicting
pressures from within their respective political bases, AIT
separately urged Chang and Huang to consider have Chen and
Soong issue a joint response on March 14. AIT suggested that
the two leaders publicly state their opposition to the use of
force in the Taiwan Strait and back this up by offering a
timetable to accelerate Taiwan's defense modernization,
including through expedited passage of the Special Defense
Procurement Budget. In this way, Chen could show his
fundamentalist supporters that his alliance with Soong has
enhanced, rather than damaged, Taiwan's security. In a
similar vein, Soong could also claim credit for heading off a
more provocative Taiwan response. AIT noted that such an
initiative would also demonstrate to both Beijing and
Washington Taiwan's resolve to defend itself in a
non-provocative way. The PFP's Chang briefed the idea to
Soong on March 10 and secured his full agreement to negotiate
with the Presidential Office on the issue. The same day,
Huang told AIT he would also brief President Chen, but said
he had no doubt that the President would fully endorse this
approach. Huang and Chang are scheduled to discuss the issue
on the evening of March 10.

Comment: Cooler Heads, For Now
--------------


8. (C) Washington's quick public reaction on the
Anti-Secession Law appears to have bought moderate Chen
advisors some breathing room. AIT will continue to encourage
a measured response from Taipei, especially in the run-up to
the President's planned "formal" response on March 14.
Whether Chen and Soong can use the issue to formulate a
unified response may depend on Chen's ability to resist
Pan-Green calls for his participation in the March 26 rally.
Uncoordinated statements from the Vice President, Premier,
and MAC Chair have not made this task any easier. AIT will
continue to urge Chen's advisors to cast the President as the
responsible voice of reason.
PAAL