Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05SOFIA623
2005-04-04 10:31:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Sofia
Cable title:  

BULGARIA: SOCIALISTS RETAIN STRONG LEAD FOR JUNE

Tags:  PGOV BU 
pdf how-to read a cable
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SOFIA 000623 

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIA: SOCIALISTS RETAIN STRONG LEAD FOR JUNE
ELECTION, BUT PM'S PARTY GAINING SLOWLY

Ref: (A) SOFIA 00333, (B) SOFIA 00242, (C) 2004 SOFIA
002174,
(D) 2004 SOFIA 00886, (E) 2004 SOFIA 00432

UNCLAS SOFIA 000623

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIA: SOCIALISTS RETAIN STRONG LEAD FOR JUNE
ELECTION, BUT PM'S PARTY GAINING SLOWLY

Ref: (A) SOFIA 00333, (B) SOFIA 00242, (C) 2004 SOFIA
002174,
(D) 2004 SOFIA 00886, (E) 2004 SOFIA 00432


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Support for Prime Minister Simeon Saxe-
Coburg and his ruling party has slowly but steadily
increased over the past year, and the former king was named
by a plurality as the preferred candidate to lead the next
government, according to a survey by the International
Republican Institute. However, poll data indicates that
time and expected low turnout still favor the better-
organized Socialists. The survey, carried out in mid-
March, showed that although the gap is narrowing, the
opposition Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) remains the
frontrunner in the election with a nearly 10-percent lead
over the ruling National Movement for Simeon II (NMSS).
The narrowing gap suggests the parliamentary elections will
be hotly contested, and the race for first place will be
between the Socialists and the ex-king's movement. The
weakened and fractious center-right seems, at least at this
stage, to be out of the game. The IRI survey also showed
falling support for membership in NATO and a lack of public
support for U.S. bases in Bulgaria, both attributed to
Bulgaria's unpopular military involvement in Iraq. END
SUMMARY

NMSS: IMPROVING YET UNCERTAIN CHANCES


2. (SBU) Simeon Saxe-Coburg's liberal coalition is on its
way to become only the second post-communist government to
complete its full four-year term in office. The percentage
of thos who believe Simeon's team deserves re-election
ncreased to 25.4 percent in March from 19.1 percen a year
earlier. In March 2005, the majority ofBulgarians (58
percent compared to 27 percent a ear ago) believe hat
Saxe-Coburg does a good or ery good job as PM, while the
number of those wh say he does a very bad job fell sharply
to 4.0 ercent from 20 percent. The poll also showed the
former monarch to be the preferred future prime mnister
with 17.6 percent support, slightly ahead f the young
Socialist leader, Sergei Stanishev, ith 16.8 percent, and
well ahead center-right oposition leaders.

WELL-ORGANIZED SOCIALISTS RETAIN LEAD


3. (SBU) If elections were held now, the BSP would win the
greatest number of seats in the next parliament, although
falling short of an absolute majority. The BSP lead over
the NMSS was 9.2 percent in March, when support for the
Socialists stood at 23.1 percent against 13.9 percent for

the NMSS. The well-organized BSP, the political party with
the longest tradition and the most developed regional
structures, has enjoyed consistently high support over the
past year. A total of 36 percent say the BSP deserves a
chance to govern the country, against 27 percent for the
NMSS and 15 percent for the opposition center-right Union
of Democratic Forces (UDF). The BSP has the most
monolithic electorate, with 91 percent vote retention since
the 2001 election. Its support consists predominantly of
pensioners, people with a high-school education or less,
and those living in small towns and villages. In contrast,
the NMSS enjoys its highest support levels among 23 to 34
year-olds and high school/college graduates. Although it
retains only 32 percent of its 2001 vote, the NMSS has a
much higher electoral reserve, giving it the potential
ability to reach out to centrist and undecided voter, as
well as disillusioned rightwing supporters.

DISTRESSING NEWS FOR THE CENTER-RIGHT


4. (SBU) The weakened center-right continued to lose ground
as fractious opposition leaders failed to overcome
political and personal differences. Electoral support for
the UDF stood at a mere 5.4 percent in March, perhaps the
lowest levels since it began leading the anti-communist
opposition in 1989. Ex-PM Kostov's party, the Democrats
for Strong Bulgaria, and the party of Sofia Mayor Stefan
Sofianski (the Union of Free Democrats or UFD) have
electoral support of 2.6 and 3.3 percent respectively,
meaning that their chances to cross the four percent
threshold and enter the next parliament are uncertain. The
centrist New Time, a NMSS splinter group that became a
junior coalition partner following the February cabinet
reshuffle, has support of 1.5 percent. Its chances to
enter the next parliament are minimal unless it strikes a
pre-election deal with the NMSS or the other governing-
coalition partner, the ethnic-Turkish Movement for Rights
and Freedoms (MRF).

LOW TURNOUT FAVORS SOCIALISTS


5. (U) A total of 67 percent say they plan to vote in the


June general elections, while 30 percent say they will not
go to the polls and 3.0 percent don't know. Low turnout
will favor the Socialists, who have the most disciplined
electorate. Bulgaria's complicated proportional
representation system gives an additional bonus to the
winning party, which gets the lion's share of the
redistributed votes of parties that don't make the four
percent threshold to enter parliament. Therefore, the
possibility that the BSP will win an absolute majority in
case of low turnout cannot be completely excluded.

SUPPORT FOR NATO AND U.S. BASES SLIPPING


7. (SBU) Support for Bulgaria's membership in the EU rose
to 77 percent in March, up eight percent from a year ago,
as Bulgaria prepared to sign its accession treaty on April
25 and join the Union in 2007. This rise follows a similar
trend in other EU aspirant states where support for the EU
membership peaked on the eve of signing the EU accession
papers. Support for Bulgaria's membership in NATO,
however, dropped to 52 percent in March from 62 percent a
year ago, when Bulgaria joined the North-Atlantic military
alliance. Pollsters linked the drop to the predominantly
negative attitudes in Bulgaria towards the country's
military participation in Iraq. Similarly, the polls
showed that the majority of Bulgarians now oppose U.S.
troops using bases in Bulgaria. A total of 61 percent
disapprove of U.S. bases in Bulgaria, up from 50 percent a
year ago. In addition to the unpopular war in Iraq, much
of the increased opposition to stationing U.S. forces in
Bulgaria can be attributed to the government's failure so
far to explain the issue adequately to the public.


8. (SBU) COMMENT: While the former king's party is rising
in the polls, it is still considered the underdog, largely
because of poorly developed regional structures, lack of
party organization and weak leadership at the top. If the
gap between the Socialists and the NMSS continues to narrow
the 2005 election could be a hotly contested affair.
However, if the NMSS makes no further progress against the
Socialists, the BSP will likely win a plurality of seats
but fall short of a majority needed to form a government.
Nearly three months before the elections, two things are
clear: the next government will likely be a coalition, and
it will be led by either the BSP or the NMSS, with today's
smart money being placed on the BSP. END COMMENT


9. (U) TABLE: If elections were held now, for which party
would you cast you vote? (respondents answer through secret
ballot)
--------------
Party March 2005 (%)
--------------
BSP 23.1
NMSS 13.9
MRF 5.8
UDF-DP-St.George's Day 5.4
UFD-BANU-IMRO 3.3
DSB (Ivan Kostov) 2.6
Evroroma 2.0
New Time 1.5
NMRF 1.3
Bulgarian Communist Party 1.1
Other 3.5
Have not decided 3.6
Will not vote 29.4
--------------