BULGARIA: GOVERNMENT SENDS IRAQ EXIT STRATEGY TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SOFIA 000616

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/2015
TAGS: PREL MOPS PGOV IZ BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIA: GOVERNMENT SENDS IRAQ EXIT STRATEGY TO
PARLIAMENT

REF: A) SOFIA 604 B) SOFIA 524 C) SOFIA 436 D) SOFIA
486 E) SOFIA 67 F) 04 SOFIA 2261 G) 04
SOFIA 2054 (NOTAL) H) IIR 6 811 0105 05 I)
IIR 6 811 0090 05

Classified By: Ambassador James Pardew, reasons, 1.4(B) and (D).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Bulgarian Council of Ministers (CM)
approved and sent to Parliament on March 31 a proposal to set
31 December 2005 as the deadline for the end of Bulgaria's
military participation in the Multi-National Force in Iraq
(MNF-I). The CM also asked Parliament to reduce the country's
current 500 troop mandate to 400 troops. The GOB tried to
balance this decision by requesting a mandate to consult with
Coalition Partners on "more suitable forms" for Bulgaria to
continue its participation in international initiatives
supporting security and stability in Iraq. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) Trying to put the best face on the government's
action, spokesman Dimitar Tsonev said the draft decision
should not be interpreted as a move by Bulgaria to leave the
Coalition in Iraq. He added that Bulgaria would "continue to
help in Iraq through other means as it searches for other
suitable forms of participation." Tsonev did not rule out
the possibility for Bulgaria to send a different military
unit to Iraq after 2005, perhaps under the auspices of the
NATO training mission. The GOB,s proposal on Iraq will most
likely be discussed in the Foreign Policy, Defense and
Security Committee on April 7 in a closed meeting and then is
expected to be voted on by the full Parliament in mid-April.


3. (C) COMMENT: The announced troop reduction is primarily a
political gesture to the Bulgarian electorate. In fact, the
reduction has been planned for several months, since some
Bulgarian logistics troops are no longer needed at Camp
Al-Diwaniyah. The GOB's position on withdrawing from Iraq
will likely trigger an intense partisan debate before it is
approved by the Parliament in coming weeks, not because the
proposal is particularly controversial in Bulgaria, but
because opposition parties will use it as an opportunity to
grandstand. With polls showing over sixty percent of
Bulgarians against the country's involvement in Iraq and the
opposition Bulgarian Socialist Party campaigning for an
immediate pullout, the government is seeking with this
decision to neutralize Iraq as a campaign issue before the
coming June elections.