BULGARIAN PM SURVIVES NO CONFIDENCE VOTE: STRONGER

UNCLAS SOFIA 000288

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIAN PM SURVIVES NO CONFIDENCE VOTE: STRONGER
HAND FOR REST OF TERM

Ref: (A) SOFIA 00242 (B) SOFIA 00228 (C) SOFIA 00217


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Prime Minister Simeon Saxe-Coburg
survived the biggest challenge yet to his nearly four-year-
old government, defeating a vote of no confidence in
Parliament on February 11. The government survived the
motion with 128 votes to 106 and four abstentions. The
rejection of the motion marks the end of two weeks of
political uncertainty and makes it almost certain that the
government will complete its full term in office ahead of
the June 25 general elections. Simeon and his team appear
the winners of this political uproar, while the fragmented
center-right is further weakened. The much-discussed
government reshuffle remains an open question. The
government's support in Iraq did not emerge as an issue and
should not be affected by the no-confidence motion. END
SUMMARY

PARLIAMENTARY DEBATE AS POLITICAL CIRCUS


2. (SBU) The vote was preceded by nine hours of political
debate February 10, which parties used as a warm up for the
upcoming election campaign. The government boasted of its
achievements and ridiculed the opposition for its lack of
vision for governing the state. Opposition groups launched
a colorful, yet severe attack on Simeon's government,
alleging corruption at high levels and listing several
government failures. The Socialists presented the
government with yellow t-shirts (the color of Simeon's
party) with "Cash-and-Carry" printed on the front. The
debate, aired on national radio and TV, was further
enlivened when ministers and opposition MPs quoted Hollywood
blockbusters Star Wars and Lord of the Rings to illustrate
their verbal attacks.

THE SPARK THAT STARTED THE FIRE


3. (SBU) What became a political upheaval started February 3
when opposition groups from both sides of the political
spectrum tabled a no confidence motion following a
parliamentary row over the failed privatization attempt of
the state-owned tobacco company, Bulgartabac (Refs B and C).
The motion, the sixth against Saxe-Coburg's government, was
called by the Socialists, the center-right groups and the
centrist New Time (NT) party for what they called "the
government's inability to govern the country."

THREE PARTY DEAL ASSURED VOTE FOR GOVERNMENT


4. (SBU) However, the New Time party withdrew its support
for the no confidence motion after signing a cooperation
agreement with the ruling National Movement for Simeon II
(NMSS) and its coalition partner, the predominantly ethnic
Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF),February 7
(Ref A). The deal virtually assured the outcome of the vote
as NMSS, MRF and NT MPs provide a stable majority to back
the government.


5. (SBU) The price of New Time's and MRF's support for the
government is unclear. New Time's deal with the ruling
party sparked widespread speculation of a shake-up in
Simeon's team. NT leaders - who raised their personal
profile through their role in the crisis - have told us they
would like Economy Minister Shuleva to go, and for NT to
have some representation in the government. However, they
would not insist on that, since the deal with the NMSS and
the MRF has secured their political future in the next
elections. Speculation about a government reshuffle
persisted all week, with the PM saying in his usual vague
language that "this was an option he might consider." The
fate of Shuleva remains uncertain, with MRF publicly unhappy
with the way the Minister handled the tobacco privatization.
The PM does not like to act under pressure and rarely
conforms to predictable political logic.

PUBLIC'S ATTITUDE: WHAT, US WORRY?


6. (SBU) The outcome of the vote corresponds to the attitude
of most Bulgarians, who say Saxe-Coburg's government should
complete its full term in office. A public opinion poll
carried out by the respected Alpha Research agency February
7-8, showed 67 percent of Bulgarians living in big towns
wanted the incumbent cabinet to stay until the June
elections. However, 56 percent said they believed the PM
should reshuffle his cabinet. A total of 81 percent said
the political uproar over the past week would not affect
their decision on how to vote. The Socialists remain
frontrunners for the elections followed by the NMSS and the
UDF.

WINNERS AND LOSERS



7. (SBU) Friday's vote solidifies Simeon's government which
appears to be the winner following its riskiest political
week. The rejection of the motion should ensure that the
government will complete its mandate, becoming only the
second Bulgarian post-communist cabinet to complete a full
four-year term in office. The latest uproar also showed
that despite his detached governance style (or perhaps
because of it) Simeon is able to emerge from crisis
situations stronger, and with an unmarred reputation. This
donnybrook also raised the profile of New Time, which is
likely to make it to the next parliament following their
deal with the ruling party. It also highlighted the
opposition's inability to challenge the government on real
issues. Nadezhda Mihailova's center-right Union of
Democratic Forces (UDF) party appeared the biggest loser as
it both failed to take a decisive stand and lost ground in
bringing the fragmented right together.


8. (SBU) COMMENT: No party came out of this first act in
the election season a dominant winner. Simeon comes closest
however, by avoiding any serious missteps, standing above
the fray, and shrewdly negotiating with renegade MPs who
bolted his party last year. He has shored up support for
his coalition going into the elections. This will free the
government to focus on their real priority: the April
signing of the EU Accession Treaty. It also ensures the
government's Iraq policy will not be de-railed.


9. (SBU) With four months to go before the elections, and
only two before their EU signing, this government will
likely avoid risky moves, even though they are stronger than
they were 10 days ago. The center-right opposition seemed
to overplay its hand and fractured even more than they had
previously, while the poll-leading Socialists failed to
demonstrate a serious proposal for running the country. END
COMMENT