New Validation Study Shows Lower Than Expected

UNCLAS SOFIA 002069

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR CA/FPP, CA/VO/L/C AND CA/VO/F/P

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: CVIS KFRD ASEC BU
SUBJECT: New Validation Study Shows Lower Than Expected
Overstay Rate


Summary: According to our latest validation study, some 11
percent of the Bulgarians issued B visas here between
January 1, 2004 and December 31, 2004 are still in the
United States. The expected margin of error for the study
(with a 95 percent confidence rating) is within 1.9 percent.
The revealed overstay rate is much lower than generally
anticipated, roughly half of what we expected, in fact. We
will attempt to use the findings from this study to hone our
adjudications against the backdrop of a rising NIV caseload
-- we saw the number of our NIV applicants jump by almost 13
percent in FY 2005. Our overall refusal rate remains at
about 21 percent. End Summary.

Data Collection: Using the methodology endorsed and
provided by CA/FPP, we randomly selected 10 percent of all
our B1, B2 and B1/B2 issuances from calendar year 2004 (800
out of a total of 8,106). We initially tried to contact
each visa holder by telephone. Those we reached in this
manner were asked a series of personal questions to verify
identity. In those cases where repeated telephone calls
proved fruitless, we received invaluable assistance from the
GOB. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs provided us with exit
and entry information from the border control database
regarding each individual we had been unable to reach, and
as a result we were able to verify the whereabouts of all
800 "temporary visitors" we surveyed.

Results: Of the 800 selected applicants, 677 (85 percent)
returned, 31 (4 percent) did not travel and 92 (11 percent)
traveled and did not return. We looked at different
possible indicators in analyzing these results, such as the
applicants' region, age, gender, prior visa issuance,
occupation and marital status. Some of these indicators
seemed to have little bearing on the tendency of visa
holders to overstay. We found that gender or prior/no prior
visa history, for example, were of no predictive value. The
difference in overstay rates was essentially the same as the
study's margin of error. Applicants who came from small
towns and villages, where employment rates and average
salaries are lower than in bigger cities, constituted a
relatively higher percentage of overstays than their more
metropolitan counterparts. Age didn't appear to be as
useful an indicator as we had hoped, though we did find that
applicants over 60 were significantly less likely to
overstay than any other age group (that revelation was
somewhat surprising).

Two findings in particular did fall in line with our
expectations. Applicants who were unemployed or self-
employed or who held unskilled or other low-paying jobs,
especially clerical office duties, were more likely to
overstay. The overstay rate for them varied from 41 percent
for the underemployed or unemployed, to 20-25 for the
others. Applicants who held managerial positions in the
private sector, were skilled laborers, or owned even
relatively small private sector businesses overstayed at
only a 6-7 percent rate. Divorced or single applicants were
also more likely to overstay (by roughly five times),than
married visa holders.

Comment: This study provided an excellent opportunity to
measure our expectations against hard, reliable statistics.
As noted, it contained a few surprises. We will be putting
our findings to best possible use in informing our
adjudications as our caseload continues to grow, and are
heartened that our applicant pool has shown some notable
signs of improvement, in terms of clear risks for illegal
migration. The introduction of visa-free travel for
Bulgarians to Europe may be a contributing factor in that
regard, as it provides an additional "safety valve" for what
would be the worst applicants. Our refusal rate seems
steady, though, and indicates the gap between Bulgaria's
ambitions for Visa Waiver Program membership and the reality
on the ground.

Beyrle