BULGARIA'S "ATAKA" PARTY BECOMING INCREASINGLY ANTI-

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SOFIA 002025

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV MARR PINR SOCI BU RU
SUBJECT: BULGARIA'S "ATAKA" PARTY BECOMING INCREASINGLY ANTI-
AMERICAN

REFS: (A) SOFIA 1134, (B) SOFIA 1239


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The rhetoric of the extreme nationalist
party Ataka has become increasingly anti-American in recent
weeks, with much of the party's wrath focused on proposed
joint military facilities and Bulgaria's participation in
the Iraq coalition. Neither high-profile infighting in
Ataka's parliamentary group nor persistent speculation about
its imminent split have eroded support for the party, which
won nearly nine percent of the vote last June within weeks
of its founding. The recently-launched "Ataka" daily
provides a larger platform for its extremist views. Its
slick format, professional editing and provocative anti-
American headlines have caused circulation to surge to the
level of some of the smaller mainstream dailies, but have
also raised questions about the sources of Ataka's funding.
The party maintains close public links with the Russian
embassy. Although Ataka's noisy nationalism has not had
significant political impact to date, its hardline stance on
issues such as Bulgaria's presence in Iraq and joint
military bases puts pressure on the Socialist, whose core
electorate often shares similar views on foreign policy.
END SUMMARY

ATAKA SHAKEN BY INFIGHTING, DEFECTIONS
--------------


2. (U) Ataka, which rose to prominence on the eve of the
June general elections, campaigned under the slogan "Let's
Give Bulgaria back to Bulgarians." It won the backing of
300,000 people in what was widely perceived as a protest
vote, becoming the fourth-largest party in parliament and
the largest opposition group (Ref. A, B). But less then a
month after its surprise entry into politics Ataka was hit
by infighting and defections, which eroded the number of its
MPs from 21 to 17. Wrangling among Ataka founders spilled
into the local media as MPs rebelled against the autocratic
behavior of their leader, Volen Siderov (Ref. B),and
accused him of pocketing a state subsidy of 50,000 levs
($30,300).


3. (U) As early as August, two of the main groups within
Ataka -- the "Union of Patriotic Forces and Reserve
Officers" and leftist "Zora Political Circle" (Ref. B) -
openly distanced themselves from Ataka, saying Siderov's
xenophobic and overtly racist views distorted the party's
"true patriotic values." The young activists from the ultra
nationalist Bulgarian National Union (BNU),which formed the
core of Ataka's noisy rallies, have also been unhappy lately
with Ataka, though for quite a different reason. They say
Siderov has become part of the political status quo and has
"privatized" the party.

ATAKA IN PARLIAMENT - MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING
--------------


4. (SBU) Ataka is undoubtedly the loudest group in
parliament, but its initiatives have failed to gain
legislative traction. Its proposals for immediate
withdrawal of Bulgaria's contingent from Iraq and a ban on
state-television broadcasts of Turkish-language news were
rejected by overwhelming majorities. MPs also declined to
debate Siderov's proposal for a resolution against "the U.S.
Ambassador's unacceptable interference in Bulgaria's
domestic affairs." Ataka's proposal for a parliamentary
declaration against a U.S. military presence in Bulgaria was
voted down by MPs as well. Furthermore, Siderov's rabid
outbursts in parliament -- in which, for example, he
referred to other MPs as "squealing pigs" and called
President Georgi Purvanov "a miserable traitor" -- have
caused some of his own MPs to distance themselves from their
leader As recently as December 7, Siderov was expelled from
the plenary hall for asserting in a derogatory manner that
one of the deputy speakers of parliament (former Prime
Minister and Ambassador to the U.S., Philip Dimitrov) was
homosexual and a U.S. agent.

ATAKA'S POPULARITY REMAINS STABLE


5. (U) Speculation about Ataka's imminent demise are,
unfortunately, premature. Neither scandals within its group
nor its futile actions in parliament have eroded its core
support. Opinion polls show support for Ataka has remained
stable over the past several months, and some recent polls
rank Ataka as the country's third-largest political force,
ahead of the predominantly ethnic Turkish Movement for
Rights and Freedoms (MRF) and all three parties on the
fragmented center-right. A poll by the National Center for
Public Opinion Research from late November showed that if
general elections were held now, 24.4 percent of all voters
would support the ruling Socialists, 8.2 percent would vote
for ex-PM Simeon Saxe-Coburg's National Movement for Simeon
II and 7.4 percent would back Ataka.

6. (SBU) Some 43 percent of those polled said they would not
vote--not surprisingly, since the last elections were in
June. A November survey by the reputable Alpha Research
agency put support for Ataka at 6.5 percent, closely
following the MRF's 6.7 percent. The party continues to
draw support from people discontented with the mainstream
parties and from those who have suffered from the post-
communist transition to a market economy. It successfully
exploits negative feelings among ethnic Bulgarians toward
the Roma minority and growing discontent with the political
influence of the ethnic Turkish MRF, which is widely
perceived as corrupt. Ataka's electorate also includes
leftist hardliners displeased with BSP's reformist course,
as well as disenchanted rightists; it attracts people from
all ages and social strata (Ref. B).

ATAKA DAILY: ANTI-AMERICANISM ON THE FRONT PAGES


7. (SBU) Ataka gained another platform for its extremist
views by launching in mid-October a newspaper with the same
name, which serves as the party's mouthpiece. The 20-page
daily, whose editor-in-chief is Siderov's longtime domestic
partner, journalist Kapka Georgieva, carries news reports on
domestic and international politics, business, the economy,
and sports, as well as analytical and investigative
articles. Its competitive price, slick format, professional
editing, and provocative headlines have caused circulation
to surge to the level of some of the smaller mainstream
dailies. Siderov uses a daily commentary column to promote
his overtly racist and xenophobic views, and constantly
reminds his readers of "the mercenaries and lackeys" in the
incumbent government who have "willingly surrendered the
country's sovereignty to serve the West."


8. (SBU) The rabidly anti- American Siderov has not missed
an opportunity to blame the U.S. and its allies for the
plight of Bulgarians "who are victims of a Western
conspiracy against their small Slav Orthodox nation." He is
currently using the pages of "Ataka" daily for a campaign
against joint military bases in Bulgaria, collecting
signatures for holding a referendum on the issue. "U.S. spy
Robert Loftis, who is getting more and more impudent,
requested the establishment of U.S. bases without paying a
penny for them," Siderov wrote in a recent commentary. He
warned that the shared bases would turn the country into a
terrorist target and might be used as U.S. nuclear bases.
"The Americans will be allowed to pollute the bases like a
bunch of pigs and transform them into drug trafficking
centers," Siderov concluded. On December 8, he accused MPs
of passing laws, "according to which we . . . follow foreign
orders, send troops wherever Washington tells us to, and
give all possible bases to the American assassins of
children and women."


9. (SBU) A day later, Siderov appeared on the front page of
"Ataka" with Russian Ambassador Anatoly Potapov. In an
accompanying article headlined "Russia Will React to U.S.
Basing," the paper says that Ataka MPs met with Russian
embassy leadership at the invitation of Potapov. The meeting
was a result of "the Russian mission's interest in the
breakthrough of Bulgaria's newest parliamentary party and
its leader." Russian diplomats reportedly noted the fact
that "Ataka is the only party in Bulgaria's parliament that
envisaged new policies with regard to relations with
Russia." The proposed U.S. military presence was among the
key issues raised by Siderov at the meeting Potapov is
quoted as responding that "Bulgaria is free to make
independent decisions but, of course, Russia was not happy
about the deployment of bases near its territory." The
Russian defense attache reportedly went on to say that the
U.S. presence "would disturb the balance and violate the
agreements on Conventional Forces in Europe and could lead
to a revision of these agreements." Ambassador Potapov
concluded the meeting by "wishing Ataka a success in its
patriotic activity and in protecting the Orthodox religion."


10. (SBU) COMMENT: Six months after the June vote, initial
forecasts that Ataka would fade from prominence as quickly
as its rose have turned out to be incorrect. Despite all
the negative publicity that accompanies Ataka's infighting
and defections, the extreme nationalist group continues to
enjoy stable support from all age groups and social strata
across the political spectrum. Ataka fills an electoral
niche for a group that is perceived as an alternative to the
mainstream parties, talks in plain language and offers easy
solutions to painful economic and social problems. Even if
forecasts for Ataka's potential disintegration come true,
its electorate will remain in place and could back any hard-
line movement that emerges to replace it. In the meantime,
questions remain about Ataka's sources of funding, with
speculation ranging from organized crime groups to former
members of the communist-era security services to third
countries. The ruling Socialists, for their part, are
reluctant to confront Ataka directly because the party's
positions on issues such as joint bases and Iraq often
reflect the views of the BSP's core electorate of elderly
communists. The Embassy maintains a no-contact policy with
Siderov and other Ataka representatives, and have encouraged
Bulgarian leaders to speak out against the party's
xenophobic message. Believing that direct Embassy
confrontation with Ataka will amplify their message, we have
concentrated on correcting their misinformation and
encouraging others to question their financial backers. END
COMMENT

BEYRLE