Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05SOFIA1448
2005-08-16 12:44:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Sofia
Cable title:  

BULGARIA: THREE-PARTY COALITION FINALLY FORMS A NEW

Tags:  PGOV PREL BU 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SOFIA 001448 

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIA: THREE-PARTY COALITION FINALLY FORMS A NEW
GOVERNMENT

Ref: A) SOFIA 1429 B) SOFIA 1329 C) SOFIA 1404 D) SOFIA
1380 E) SOFIA 1363 F) SOFIA 1325 G) SOFIA 1124

UNCLAS SOFIA 001448

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIA: THREE-PARTY COALITION FINALLY FORMS A NEW
GOVERNMENT

Ref: A) SOFIA 1429 B) SOFIA 1329 C) SOFIA 1404 D) SOFIA
1380 E) SOFIA 1363 F) SOFIA 1325 G) SOFIA 1124


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Nearly eight weeks after general
elections, the three largest parties in parliament are
poised to form a coalition government. In an extraordinary
session scheduled for later today (August 16),Parliament is
expected to approve the Bulgarian Socialist Party's (BSP)
Sergei Stanishev as Prime Minister, along with eight BSP
ministers. The National Movement for Simeon II (NMSS) and
the mainly ethnic-Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedoms
(MRF) will pick up five and three ministries respectively.
END SUMMARY

A THREE-PARTY COALITION GOVERNMENT FORMED


2. (SBU) The BSP, which won an inconclusive victory June 25
and fell short of a majority, signed on August 15 a
coalition agreement with the defeated NMSS and the MRF. If
approved at an afternoon session of parliament on August 16,
this coalition will have the largest parliamentary majority
in Bulgaria's post-communist history, with a total of 169
MPs in the 240-seat parliament. This majority is more than
the two-thirds required to pass constitutional amendments
necessary for EU accession. The coalition partners and the
President moved with unprecedented speed to secure earlier-
than-normal parliamentary approval of Bulgaria's new
government. Less than two hours after the parties signed
the agreement, the President -- who has publicly declared
his frustration with the slow pace of negotiations -- handed
the mandate to PM-designate Sergei Stanishev, appointed as
the MRF's candidate. Stanishev previously failed to form a
government using the BSP's mandate.


3. (SBU) The parties have reportedly agreed to focus on the
central issues of "European integration, economic growth
and social responsibility." Behind this public agreement,
however, lie serious differences on major policy issues,
including privatization, fiscal policy and government
administration. These differences are supposed to be
resolved by a proposed Coalition Council comprised of five
representatives from each party. It is designed to give the
two smaller coalition partners an equal voice on matters of
national importance and act as a counterweight to the formal
cabinet, where the BSP holds an absolute majority. It
remains to be seen whether this informal council will have

any real effect on governance.

LINE-UP OF THE NEW GOVERNMENT, WHO GETS WHAT


4. (SBU) Many ministers were unchanged from the BSP's first
attempt to form a government (ref B),including the two
prominent BSP deputy leaders, Rumen Petkov and Rumen
Ovcharov, who were named Minister of Interior and Minister
of Economy and Energy, respectively. The BSP has submitted
Ivailo Kalfin as Minister of Foreign Affairs and Plamen
Oresharski -- a generally well-respected technocrat -- as
Finance Minister. The biggest cabinet surprise is the
absence of a few of the NMSS' stars. Plamen Panayotov, who
served as Deputy Prime Minister in the Simeon cabinet and is
NMSS Deputy Chairman, unexpectedly disappeared from the
cabinet list late August 15. Outgoing Finance Minister Milen
Velchev is also absent. One frustrated NMSS contact told us
his party did much worse in this cabinet than it would have
in the first mandate proposal turned down by the NMSS. He
believed the biggest losses were the economic ministries,
which left no post for Velchev. The media is already
reporting Velchev may be a candidate for Mayor of Sofia.
In another unexpected move, Daniel Vulchev, who is a member
of the NMSS political council, is proposed to be Deputy
Prime Minister and Minister of Education. The line-up also
includes the outgoing Interior Minister Georgi Petkanov, who
is named Minister of Justice. In addition, the NMSS has
nominated Vesselin Bliznakov as Minister of Defense.
Bliznakov, 61, is currently an NMSS MP, a member of the
party's Political Council and General Secretary of NMSS.

WHAT ABOUT SIMEON


6. (SBU) The coalition agreement is the culmination of
extensive negotiations with the defeated party of outgoing
PM Simeon Saxe-Coburg. Simeon will play no role in the new
government, but will retain his position as party leader.
The outgoing PM told the press that NMSS has joined the
coalition with the assurance that Council of Ministers'
decisions will be taken by consensus. NMSS insiders have
told us privately, however, that they expect problems with
the BSP on reaching consensus on some important issues.


7. (SBU) COMMENT: Bulgarians are breathing an exasperated
sigh of relief now that a new government seems in place. In
addition to delays in the EU accession process, the current

carryover government has been unimpressive in its response
to severe flooding. President Purvanov's public
chastisement of the political parties -- and likely private
prodding -- appear to have focused the leaders on forming a
government that will be stable in the short-to-medium term.
This should be long enough to get Bul:uria through the
difficult EU accession process in the next several months.
However, as with all coalition governments, seemingly small
disagreements could unwind this broad but very diverse
group. The broad nature of the coalition should, however,
mitigate against any abrupt changes in economic or foreign
policy. Moreover, most ministries that are important to the
USG are headed by moderates who are well know to us.
Septels will report in more detail on the composition of the
government and its implications for U.S. interests. END
COMMENT