COALITION TALKS FAIL: SOCIALISTS PREPARE WEAKER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SOFIA 001325

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/22/2015
TAGS: PGOV BU
SUBJECT: COALITION TALKS FAIL: SOCIALISTS PREPARE WEAKER
ALTERNATIVE

Classified By: JEFFREY D. LEVINE FOR REASONS 1.4 B&D


1. (C) SUMMARY. High-stakes coalition talks between the
Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) and that of outgoing PM
Simeon Saxe-Coburg Gotha collapsed July 22 with the Simeon
Movement (NMSS) announcing it would not participate in a
BSP-led government. The Socialists, who won a small
plurality in the June 25 elections, have spent nearly a month
trying to coax the defeated Simeon Movement into a
three-party coalition, seen by many as the best option for
Bulgaria,s political stability and timely EU accession. The
Socialists have told us they will now propose a two-party
coalition with the predominantly-Turkish Movement for Rights
and Freedom (MRF) before their mandate expires on July 25.
The proposed government, however, would require support from
minor parties or individual MPs in order to be approved.
Parliament is scheduled to vote on the new government July

26. END SUMMARY

SOCIALISTS TO RESORT TO PLAN B


2. (C) As coalition talks intensified over the past week,
insiders from both parties grew increasingly hopeful that
agreement could be reached. Despite significant political
and personal differences, most analysts agreed a BSP-NMSS
partnership would offer a more stable government, capable of
leading Bulgaria into the European Union. The NMSS decision
to go into opposition, however, ended the BSP's hopes for a
broad coalition government and will force the BSP to use its
back-up plan. The BSP and MRF together control only 116
seats in the 240-seat parliament. Socialist leaders tell us
they have secured enough votes to achieve a majority relying
on individual MP,s from other parties. In addition, the BSP
may seek support from the center-right Bulgarian People's
Union, led by former Sofia Mayor Stefan Sofianski, for a
secret vote to approve the government. A secret vote would

SIPDIS
allow for more deal-making and offer a conducive atmosphere
for breaking Party ranks.


3. (C) BSP leader and Prime-Minister designate Sergei
Stanishev told the Charge he had offered numerous compromises
with the NMSS but was unable to satisfy their
frequently-changing demands. He laid part of the blame on
current NMSS ministers who could not accept giving up their
posts. He, like his NMSS counterparts, agreed that the
three-party coalition would have better served Bulgaria.

SIMEON TO BECOME OPPOSITION LEADER


4. (C) NMSS leaders told us the reasons for the rupture,
which came just a day after intra-party negotiations reached
agreement on the distribution of cabinet positions, were both
psychological and substantive. Throughout the negotiations,
members of Simeon,s negotiating team told us the BSP was not
treating them as a serious partner nor was Simeon personally
given the respect he deserved. The presence of the MRF -
their current coalition partners with which they have very
strained relations - was also a major point of contention.
BSP leader Sergei Stanishev told the Charge, that he "felt
like a marriage counselor" when trying to resolve difference
between the NMSS and the MRF. The BSP, according to NMSS
negotiations, also wanted political councils in some of the
ministries to provide direction to the Minister - something
the NMSS could not accept. NMSS sources have told us that
they have the money and resolve to hold out for an early
election should BSP stumble in its efforts to prepare
Bulgaria for EU entry in January 2007.


5. (C) COMMENT: If events follow the proposed schedule,
Parliament will be asked to approve what is in effect a
minority government. While the BSP thinks it has the votes,
its approval cannot be taken for granted. More important
however is whether such a weak coalition will be able to
undertake the necessary heavy-lifting to pass the serious
legislation required for EU entry. From our perspective, the
departure of the NMSS means an even larger number of unknown
and/or inexperienced ministers. While the BSP leadership has
been open and accessible to us since the election, our NMSS
relationship would have been useful in pursuing US interests.
An NMSS presence would also have made abrupt changes in the
Government,s Iraqi policy more unlikely. END COMMENT