SOCIALIST LEADER FAVORS LARGE COALITION; SAYS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SOFIA 001144

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2015
TAGS: PGOV BU
SUBJECT: SOCIALIST LEADER FAVORS LARGE COALITION; SAYS
SIMEON OUT AS PM; PLEDGES NO IMMEDIATE PULL-OUT FROM IRAQ

REF: A) SOFIA 1134 B) SOFIA 808

Classified By: AMB. JAMES PARDEW FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D


1. (C) SUMMARY: In a one-on-one meeting with Ambassador on
June 27, a confident Sergei Stanishev, Bulgarian Socialist
Party (BSP) leader, laid out his party's views on a future
government in anticipation of negotiations to form a
coalition. At this point, Stanishev favors a large
coalition, including the ethnic-Turkish Movement for Rights
and Freedom (MRF) and the current Prime Minister's National
Movement for Simeon II (NMSS.) Stanishev was adamant that
Simeon cannot remain as PM. He reiterated his pledge to move
slowly on his campaign promise to withdraw from Iraq.
However, retaining Bulgarian forces as part of the coalition
after December is "out of the question."

ELECTION
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2. (C) Stanishev said the Socialists did not do as well as
expected, but he put a positive spin on the results, pointing
out they gained more votes than ever before -- including from
young voters. He said the surprise of the election was
extreme nationalist group Ataka's strong showing (ref A)
which took a considerable number of voters away from the BSP.
Stanishev predicted hard negotiations ahead to form a
coalition.

COALITION
--------------


3. (C) Stanishev repeatedly stressed the need for a stable
and predictable government. As the BSP enters coalition
negotiations with other parties, Stanishev emphasized that a
coalition agreement must be reached quickly because of the EU
accession timetable, a tool he can use as leverage in forming
the coalition. His strategy going into negotiations is to
form a large coalition with the two next largest
vote-getters, which will provide a stable structure to allow
Bulgaria to finalize preparations for entering the EU --
including amending the Constitution. He says this
three-party group would also provide a united front against
Ataka. Stanishev was adamant that a coalition which retains
Simeon as the Prime Minister is "not possible." Allowing
Simeon to stay would lead to rebellion in Stanishev's own
party, he said.

IRAQ
--------------


4. (C) Stanishev reiterated to Ambassador his earlier
comments that withdrawal of Bulgarian troops from Iraq is not
a high priority at this point and will take some time to
address. Stanishev said he understood the sensitivity of
Iraq to the U.S. and did not stress the issue during the
campaign, even though it could have won him more votes.
Stanishev said he could not give a 100 percent guarantee that
Bulgaria would not withdraw before December, but there were
other priorities ahead of this on his national agenda.
However, after December, staying in Iraq is "out of the
question," Stanishev stated.

U.S. MILITARY PRESENCE
--------------


4. (C) A BSP-led Bulgaria is ready to begin negotiation of an
agreement with the U.S on the use of military facilities in
Bulgaria, Stanishev said. The Socialists have no ideological
problems with a U.S. presence in Bulgaria. Stanishev
mentioned that the current Simeon government did not do a
good job of informing the Bulgarian people about the benefits
of the U.S. proposals. However, in a clear indication that
basing negotiations will be difficult, Stanishev brought up
the appeal of Ataka to nationalist sentiment, noting that his
government will have to prove it will protect Bulgaria's
national interests in negotiations with the U.S.

COMMENT
--------------


5. (C) Stanishev -- apparently feeling confident at this
point that he can put together a coalition that makes him PM
-- sought to reassure the U.S. that the Socialists see us as
a strategic partner and will make no radical or immediate
shifts in Bulgarian policy. In making these assurances,
however, he reiterated his intention to remove Bulgarian
troops from Iraq before the end of the year -- but not
precipitously. As Socialist Party leader, Stanishev made it
clear that he will not negotiate an agreement allowing Simeon
to stay on as PM. Stanishev's position on U.S. military
facilities in Bulgaria suggested that a BSP-led government
will be more difficult in upcoming negotiations, as expected
(Ref B). All of this should be viewed in the preliminary


context of a winning party that has yet to begin discussions
with other parties to form a government.