Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05SOFIA1114
2005-06-23 04:28:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Sofia
Cable title:  

BULGARIA: SOCIALISTS LEAD POLLS FOR SATURDAY'S VOTE; LATE

Tags:  PGOV BU 
pdf how-to read a cable
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SOFIA 001114 

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIA: SOCIALISTS LEAD POLLS FOR SATURDAY'S VOTE; LATE
SUPPORT FOR NEW EXTREMIST PARTY

Ref: (A) SOFIA 0067, (B) SOFIA 808, (C) SOFIA 931, (D) SOFIA 1020,
(E) SOFIA 1036

UNCLAS SOFIA 001114

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIA: SOCIALISTS LEAD POLLS FOR SATURDAY'S VOTE; LATE
SUPPORT FOR NEW EXTREMIST PARTY

Ref: (A) SOFIA 0067, (B) SOFIA 808, (C) SOFIA 931, (D) SOFIA 1020,
(E) SOFIA 1036


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The opposition Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP)
retains a comfortable lead over the ruling party for the June 25
general election according to all reputable opinion polls released
as the 30-day campaign draws to a close. Surveys show the
Socialists appear poised to win the most seats in the next
parliament but will likely fall short of an absolute majority.
This would force the BSP to seek support from the ruling National
Movement for Simeon II (NMSS) or the ethnic Turkish Movement for
Rights and Freedoms (MRF) to form a government. The final
International Republican Institute (IRI) survey shows the
Socialists are expected to have 95-105 MPs in the 240-seat
parliament. The PM's party, which has failed to build on its
strong record and narrow the gap with the BSP, is estimated to win
around 60 MP seats. Originally considered a fringe group, the
extreme nationalist group "Ataka" has seen a surge of support in
recent days. Many analysts think the group may achieve the four
percent threshold needed to enter parliament, where it would be a
potentially disruptive force. During the late stages of the
campaign, BSP leader Stanishev, also the party's PM nominee,
reiterated that the Socialists would immediately withdraw
Bulgaria's troops from Iraq should they come to power. END SUMMARY


2. (SBU) All polls indicate the Socialists, whose last stint in
government was ended by mass protests in early 1997, will emerge
with the most seats after the election (Refs B, D). The well-
organized BSP, the political party with the longest history and the
most developed regional structures, enjoys a 10-percent lead over
the ruling party as of June 15, the IRI poll showed. Support for
the Socialists edged up to 26 percent from 23 percent a month
earlier. A survey by Bulgaria's reputable Alpha Research polling
agency suggests the gap between the BSP and NMSS is even greater -
13 percent. According to the IRI, a big part of the undecided
voters are also likely to back the poll-leading Socialists. The
BSP could come close to an absolute majority in case of low turnout
or if any of the small center-right parties do not pass the four
percent threshold, because under Bulgaria's complex proportional
representation system, the largest party gets the lion's share of
the redistributed votes (Ref. E). The poll also showed 39-year BSP

Chairman Stanishev to be the preferred future prime minister with
22 percent support in June, ahead of incumbent Simeon Saxe-Coburg
Gotha with 18 percent, and well ahead of the center-right
opposition leaders. Although Iraq has not become a major campaign
issues, Stanishev has recently played to the 70 percent public
opposition to Government policy in Iraq by restating that the
Socialists would immediately withdraw Bulgaria's military
contingent from Iraq should they come to power. (Ref. A)


3. (SBU) The NMSS, which in contrast with the BSP has poorly
developed regional political structures and lacks party
organization, has failed to build on its successes and narrow the
gap with the BSP (Ref. C, D). Its sharp switch to an anti-BSP
course in a move to attract the soft center-right electorate did
not help, and support for the ex-king's party was unchanged at 16
percent in mid-June compared to a month earlier. The popularity of
Saxe-Coburg, whose cabinet became only the second Bulgarian post-
communist government to complete its full four-year term, has also
edged down. In June, 31 percent say the PM did a good or a very
good job compared to 34 percent in May. The number of those who
believe Simeon, the first European monarch to regain power as prime
minister, deserves re-election has remained unchanged at 25
percent. In 2001, Simeon's movement won a landslide victory with
43 percent of the vote.


4. (SBU) The month-long-campaign has not brought a surge in support
for the weakened and fractious center-right either, and the three
center-right groups remain out of the key race. The main
opposition center-right coalition, led by the Union of Democratic
Forces (UDF),continued to lose ground as support for it edged down
to 7.0 percent in June from 8.0 percent in May. Some analysts say
that a worse-than-expected showing on the part of Nadezhda
Mihailova's UDF could be one of the surprise outcomes from
Saturday's election. Ex-PM Ivan Kostov's party, the Democrats for
Strong Bulgaria (DSB),and the coalition of Sofia Mayor Stefan
Sofianski (the Union of Free Democrats or UFD) have, however,
stabilized their electoral support at around 4.0 percent each,
meaning that both groups have chances to enter the next parliament.


5. (SBU) In perhaps the biggest surprise of the election so far,
all polls register a late surge over the past month in support of
the extreme nationalist group Ataka which campaigns under the motto
"Let's Give Bulgaria Back to Bulgarians". The group's leader,
Volen Siderov, a well-known journalist, is openly anti-Semitic and
anti-U.S. Ataka opposes membership in the EU and NATO, is anti-
Roma and anti-Turkish and seeks closer ties with Russia. It is
winning the protest vote of people living in the margins of
society, some young people and voters with extreme leftist and
rightist views who are against the status quo. Polls show that for
the first time in post-communist elections, a nationalist group
stands a chance to cross the four percent threshold and enter


parliament. This would be a major change for Bulgaria, a country
with a moderate and tolerant history.


6. (SBU) Exit poll results will be announced after polling stations
close at 7 p.m. Preliminary results are expected to be announced
by the Central Electoral Commission (CEC) before midnight. Final
results for parties and coalitions are published by CEC within four
days of the vote, and the list of names of newly-elected MPs is
announced in seven days (Ref. E).


7. (SBU) COMMENT: Based on polling data, the Socialists appear set
for a victory in the Saturday election which will likely result in
the formation of a BSP-led government. However, since the BSP may
not have a majority, other coalition scenarios are possible,
especially given Bulgaria's track record for political surprises.
Ataka, the surprise in this campaign, would have a larger platform
for its extremist views if it makes it to parliament, and may
tarnish Bulgaria's image as the country finalizes its accession to
the EU. END COMMENT