Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05SINGAPORE1789
2005-06-07 08:37:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Singapore
Cable title:  

DEPUTY SECRETARY ZOELLICK'S MAY 10 MEETING WITH

Tags:  OVIP PREL PGOV ECON KNNP ETTC CH TW KS IN IZ 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SINGAPORE 001789 

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STATE FOR DEPUTY SECRETARY ZOELLICK

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/10/2015
TAGS: OVIP PREL PGOV ECON KNNP ETTC CH TW KS IN IZ
SUBJECT: DEPUTY SECRETARY ZOELLICK'S MAY 10 MEETING WITH
MINISTER MENTOR LEE KUAN YEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SINGAPORE 001789

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STATE FOR DEPUTY SECRETARY ZOELLICK

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/10/2015
TAGS: OVIP PREL PGOV ECON KNNP ETTC CH TW KS IN IZ
SUBJECT: DEPUTY SECRETARY ZOELLICK'S MAY 10 MEETING WITH
MINISTER MENTOR LEE KUAN YEW


1. (U) Classified by: Ambassador Franklin L. Lavin. Reason
1.4(d)


2. (U) Date Time and Place: May 10, 2005, 5:00PM, Istana,
Singapore


3. (U) Participants:

U.S.
--------------

The Deputy Secretary
Ambassador Franklin Lavin
E/P Counselor Laurent Charbonnet (Notetaker)

SINGAPORE
--------------

MM Lee Kuan Yew
MM's Principal Private Secretary Lee Seow Hiang
MFA North America Branch Edna Chia (Notetaker)


4. (C) Summary: Deputy Secretary Zoellick and Singapore's
senior statesman, 81-year-old Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew,
exchanged perspectives on cross-Strait tensions, the
emergence of India and China as strategic powers, the
threat posed by North Korea and the promise of a new
beginning in Iraq and progress in the Middle East. In a
wide-ranging, 95-minute meeting, Lee reported that China's
leaders remained fixated on Taiwan but believed that the
cross-Strait situation had become more stable in recent
months. Lee judged the current President of South Korea,
Roh Mo-Hyun, incapable of dealing effectively with the
North, which, for its part would be unlikely to willingly
give up its nuclear capability. Over the next ten to
twenty years, China and India would emerge as world-class
powers, which would change the global political and
economic dynamic. The United States would need to work
effectively with them but would not successfully "co-opt"
them, Lee cautioned. Lee admitted that prospects for
resolution of problems in the Middle East had improved, and
commented that growing Iraqi public disdain for murderous
insurgents would lead to increased intelligence leads for
security forces there. End Summary.

--------------
China and Taiwan
--------------


5. (C) China's new generation of leaders are concerned

about proving their political legitimacy, said Lee, and
feel they cannot simply postpone dealing with the Taiwan
issue. China's leaders strongly want a stable world and
regional political environment so they can continue to
concentrate on economic growth and alleviating the economic
disparity and tensions between the rural and the urban
populations. That said, they continue to view everything
through the prism of Taiwan. Lee recounted a conversation
with former Party School vice director Zheng Bijian, in
which Lee warned Zheng that any PRC moves against Taiwan
would lead to military conflict with the United States,
which would be a disaster for the region. Zheng replied,
"perhaps that is our fate." But China's leaders, claimed
Lee, also believe the Taiwan situation has stabilized in
recent months and will remain so "as long as George Bush is
President." The Deputy Secretary pointed to the very clear
cautionary statements the United States has made to both
sides as a departure and improvement over the previous
ambiguity. He also described his plans to establish
a strategic dialogue with China that would cover both
economic and political issues, an initiative that Minister
Mentor Lee strongly endorsed. Lee remarked on the political
capital China has gained in Southeast Asia, pointing to the
recent Chinese pledges to assist Indonesia in
infrastructure development as an example of China's
outreach.

--------------
The Korean Peninsula
--------------


6. (C) Lee had been "very unimpressed" with new South
Korean President Roh Moo-Hyun, who he said is not a
strategic thinker and does not understand the forces and
emotions with which he is dealing. "He is playing a silly
game and does not understand he is playing for keeps," Lee
added. The United States will probably just have to wait
for a new South Korean government to make progress on the
Peninsula. As Roh's party "could not win again," it might
not take long. The Deputy Secretary cautioned that
the unstable situation in North Korea might not give us the
luxury of waiting for change in the South Korean
government. Both men agreed that China remained critical to
resolution of the threat of North Korea. Unfortunately,
said Lee, China will "sell anything to anybody" and thus
contributed to proliferation and growth in North Korea's
arsenal. The Chinese are concerned about the situation in
the North in the short term, but don't understand they are
undercutting their own security in the long term by helping
North Korea develop weapons. The Deputy Secretary
noted current U.S. efforts to curtail North Korea's illegal
activities, including proliferation. Lee declared that
North Korea's leadership had little incentive to do
anything which could lead to them losing power as they have
committed so many crimes over the years that "they know
they will end up in The Hague." Lee predicted the North
"will never willingly give up the nuclear option," yet
North Korea's remaining nuclear-capable will eventually
spur Japan to develop nuclear weapons and become much more
independent in thinking. The Deputy Secretary countered
that the peace movement ran deeply within the Japanese
polity and that pressure from Asian neighbors and the
risk-aversion of its own aging population would tend to
check the potential for Japan's re-militarization.

--------------
Emerging China and India to Shape 21st Century
-------------- -


7. (C) The key challenge facing the United States and the
West in the coming decades will be the economic and
cultural re-emergence of China and India, said Lee. Both
consider themselves deserving of status as world class
powers in their own right. A "simplistic" approach trying
to co-opt India and China will not work, he averred.
"India will not agree to become an ally of Japan and the
United States to contain China," said Lee. The Deputy
Secretary laid out U.S. hopes to continue to expand our

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relationship with India, building on our shared traits as
two large democracies, expanding trade and investment, and
increasing our strategic and military cooperation.

--------------
The Middle East and Progress in Iraq
--------------


8. (C) The Deputy Secretary recounted for Lee his
recent trip to Iraq and the strong impressions he took away
of the quality of the newly elected government leaders and
their ambitions to build a new, democratic nation. Lee
noted that the insurgents in Iraq were being revealed as
mere murderers of fellow Iraqis and predicted that, as this
understanding spread among the population, more and more
information would begin flowing to security forces about
them. More broadly, the Middle East has changed in ways no
one could have predicted four years ago, said the Deputy
Secretary. Lee agreed that opportunities for significant

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progress in the Middle East were emerging, and that
successful resolution of long-standing issues there could
change the region, and even the world, for the better.
In the long-term, however, changes in the Middle East would
not have the world-shifting effect of the changes now
underway in Asia, he claimed.
LAVIN