DOMINICAN POLITICS #25: FERNANDEZ'S SPECIAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SANTO DOMINGO 002636

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TAGS: ETRD PREL DR
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN POLITICS #25: FERNANDEZ'S SPECIAL
BRIEFING BEFORE VISITING THE UNITED STATES


1. (SBU) Following is #25 in our series on the first year of
the Fernandez administration:

Fernandez's Special Briefing Before Visiting the United States
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Last week U.S. academic Howard Wiarda of the University of
Georgia became Leonel Fernandez,s personal trainer for the
President,s trip May 9-12 to the United States to meet
President Bush. Wiarda was in Santo Domingo for a three-day
seminar and an inhouse invitation-only lecture on May 5 at
Fernandez,s Fundacin Global (FUNGLODE). Fernandez thinks
highly of Wiarda. He told Foreign Minister Carlos Morales
Troncoso to be at the event, and Fernandez invited Wiarda for
a two-hour private breakfast/discussion the next day.

Wiarda had spent close to two hours with the Embassy,s
political officer on May 3, before beginning his
presentations. The two were acquaintances from Brazil and
from Wiarda,s visit last year for the presidential
elections. Political officer attended the
standing-room-only audience at the FUNGLODE auditorium for
Wiarda,s talk on &The Foreign Policy of the Second Bush
Administration.8 Fernandez and Morales Troncoso were there.
Deputy Foreign Minister Alejandra Liriano introduced Wiarda
and took notes at the head table. Print media have paid
scant attention because they were not invited. One brief
mention appeared in "Diario Libre" May 6. Germn Marte,s
longer article in "Hoy" on May 7 was based on an interview in
which Wiarda explained the political obstacles to U.S.
ratification of CAFTA. Following their usual editorial
slant, "Hoy" editors titled the front page piece &Expert
Foresees Rejection of CAFTA by U.S. Congress.8

Highlights of the hour-long address, followed by more than
half an hour of Q&A :

- - U.S. foreign policy today, as in much of the past,
attaches a low priority to Latin America. Top policymakers
by and large have paid attention only to crises in the
region.

- - This is inevitable, because the United States as the sole
superpower must engage with &more than 200 political
entities8 (nations and international organizations). The
Dominican Republic is a small blip on a big screen.

- - Dominicans tend to overestimate U.S. interest here, since
on their screen the United States outshines all others.

- - &Benign neglect8 is not necessarily a bad thing.
Crisis managers in Washington are exasperated with countries
that keep them awake at night. Substantive regional
policymaking takes place below the White House and cabinet,
at assistant secretary and DAS level, by officials who have
relevant area expertise and experience.

- - Since January, many of these sub-cabinet officials have
been replaced by less ideological, more pragmatic successors.
Secretary of State Rice has more interest in the developing
nations than her predecessor.

- - President Fernandez will go to Washington at a propitious
moment. After 3-1/2 years of the global war on terror, which
is on the way to being won, the second Bush administration is
&looking for a way to withdraw U.S. forces from Iraq,8 move
away from an overriding concern with counter-terrorism, and
&return to more normal diplomacy.8

- - &Mr. President, you will find U.S. policymakers more
open to your proposals and your country,s needs than at any
time in the recent past. It,s up to you and your government
to take advantage of this favorable moment (coyuntura).8

- - Secretary Rice,s recent trips to Latin America and
Europe are important signals of this rebalancing of U.S.
priorities.

- - The administration is taking up recommendations that Dr.
Wiarda and other academic experts originally developed for
President George H.W. Bush in 1991-92 on future directions of
post-Cold War policy. The recommendations were shunted aside
during the Clinton Administration, began to be implemented in
2001 with Mexico, were thrown into abeyance by 9/11, and are
again being dusted off. Essentially: Reduce the traditional
emphasis on Europe and the Middle East; devote more attention
to Asia and Latin America.

- - The Dominican Republic is a much more sophisticated
partner for the United States today than in 1962, when Wiarda
first came here. Then the country was 75 percent illiterate,
70 percent rural, underdeveloped, and dependent on sugar for
80 percent of its exports; today Dominicans are 75 percent
literate, 70 percent urban, produce more in commerce,
services, and manufacturing than in agriculture, and depend
on sugar for only 3 to 4 percent of GDP and a small fraction
of exports.

- - The Dominican-American community is entering politics,
holds elected offices at municipal and state levels, and is
beginning to influence policy as part of the large Hispanic
minority in the United States. Dominican-Americans will help
promote this country,s interests in the United States, e.g.,
in the current lobbying for U.S. ratification of CAFTA, which
would offer the country unrestricted access to the world,s
biggest market.

- - The changes in the country since the fall of the Trujillo
dictatorship reflect those elsewhere in Latin America.
Thirty years ago, 17 of the 20 countries had authoritarian
regimes; today 19 of 20 (34 of 35 if all the Caribbean is
included) have governments that are more or less democratic.
Stable democracy correlates highly with developed economies.
Unstable Haiti, Ecuador, Bolivia, and Paraguay are
illustrative. Venezuela is an exception &because it floats
on oil.8

- - U.S. authorities prefer to deal with democracies, which
are more responsible than extreme regimes of right or left.

- - Structural issues in the region include corruption,
poverty, income inequality, social justice, and a growing
disenchantment with democracy among citizens who do not enjoy
expected benefits in well-being or services such as education
and health care. Strong democratic faith in the Dominican
Republic relates to bad memories of the Trujillo era.

Q&A were led off by polemical Hamlet Herman, who criticized
Wiarda,s view of U.S. policy changes as optimistic. Other
questioners chimed in skeptically on specifics. The speaker
gave reasoned replies to each.


2. (U) Drafted by Bainbridge Cowell.

3.(U) This piece and others in our series may be consulted
on our classifed SIPRNET site
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo< /a> along
with extensive other material.
KUBISKE