Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05SANSALVADOR3507
2005-12-16 21:44:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy San Salvador
Cable title:  

AFTER THE DELUGE: THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE STAN AND ILAMATEPEC VOLCANO ERUPTION

Tags:  ECON EAID PGOV PHUM PREL SENV SOCI ES 
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SAN SALVADOR 003507 

SIPDIS

STATE ALSO FOR AID/LAC

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EAID PGOV PHUM PREL SENV SOCI ES
SUBJECT: AFTER THE DELUGE: THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE STAN AND ILAMATEPEC VOLCANO ERUPTION


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SAN SALVADOR 003507

SIPDIS

STATE ALSO FOR AID/LAC

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EAID PGOV PHUM PREL SENV SOCI ES
SUBJECT: AFTER THE DELUGE: THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE STAN AND ILAMATEPEC VOLCANO ERUPTION



1. SUMMARY: El Salvador's geography and geology make it
vulnerable to natural disasters such as earthquakes,
hurricanes, and volcanoes. During October, the nation
suffered a volcanic eruption, hurricane-induced flooding and
mudslides, and an earthquake, although the latter caused
little if any serious damage. Losses total an estimated
$355.6 million, including damages of $113 million to private
housing and $103 million to roads. Crop losses total almost
$50 million. In polls since the disasters, President Saca
has received high marks for the administration's rescue and
disaster-relief efforts; with less than three months to go
until March elections, positive perceptions of the
administration's disaster response underscore its lead with
prospective voters. END SUMMARY.

BACKGROUND
--------------


2. Lying on the Pacific's earthquake-prone Ring of Fire and
at latitudes plagued by hurricanes, El Salvador's history is
a litany of catastrophe, including the Great Hurricane of
1780 that killed 22,000 in Central America, and earthquakes
in 1854 and 1917 that devastated El Salvador and destroyed
most of the capital city. More recently, an October 1986
earthquake killed 1,400 and seriously damaged the nation's
infrastructure; in Fall of 1998, Hurricane Mitch killed
10,000 in the region, although El Salvador--lacking a
Caribbean coast--suffered less than Honduras and Nicaragua.
Major earthquakes in January and February of 2001 took
another 1,000 lives and left thousands more homeless and
jobless.

AN OCTOBER TO REMEMBER
--------------


3. El Salvador's largest volcano, Santa Ana (also known by
its indigenous name Ilamatepec),erupted on October 1,
spewing tons of sulfuric gas, ash, and rock on surrounding
communities and coffee plantations and killing two people.
The death toll was relatively small because the government
had already evacuated at-risk communities, based on
increases in seismic activity that began June 15; however,
the eruption permanently displaced 5,000 people, and forced

the temporary evacuation of 15,000.


4. The following day, on October 2, Hurricane Stan
unleashed heavy rains that caused flooding throughout El
Salvador. During the first five days of October, nearly 400
millimeters (about 16 inches) of rain fell on land already
saturated by wet-season rains. (Note: Late rainy-season
precipitation usually averages approximately 250-300 mm per
month during August, September, and October. End note.)
Floods ruined crops in some of the most fertile parts of the
country, and landslides disrupted transportation and
communication in cities and rural areas. In all, the
flooding caused 67 deaths, and more than 50,000 people were
evacuated at some point during the crisis.

DAMAGES ESTIMATED AT $355.6 MILLION
--------------


5. The United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America
and the Caribbean (ECLAC) estimates the economic damages of
these natural disasters at $355.6 million, or 2.2 percent of
annual GDP. ECLAC believes that the growth projections for
this year will only be marginally affected, and that this
negative effect will likely be counteracted next year by
reconstruction efforts, especially by housing construction.
ECLAC estimates a GDP growth rate of 2.2 percent for 2005,
lower than the 2.5 percent previously projected. For 2006,
GDP would grow by 3.2 percent, instead of the previous
projection of 3 percent, thanks to increased economic
activity spurred by reconstruction efforts. Inflation for
2005 will run approximately 4.5 percent instead of the 4
percent previously projected, mostly as a result of higher
food prices due to increased transportation costs and crop
damage.


6. Damage to private housing was estimated at $113.1
million. Meanwhile, schools and healthcare facilities
sustained damages of $17 million and $19.3 million,
respectively, with 55 health units and one hospital
reporting damage. Losses in transportation infrastructure
were estimated at $103 million; a total of 300 kilometers of
paved roads were damaged. Damage to public water systems
totaled $11.8 million. On the positive side, reservoirs now
full from the rain are allowing hydroelectric generators to
run at full capacity, and overall the sector's revenues are
ahead an estimated $1.3 million.


7. Crop losses totaled $48.7 million, with coffee bearing
the brunt of the damage due to the volcanic eruption. An
estimated 43,000 hectares of coffee sustained significant
damage, and the foundation for Coffee Research, PROCAFE,
estimates that about 3 percent of the total coffee crop for
the year was lost, with a potential value of almost $6
million. Other crop damage included corn, vegetables,
bananas, forage, fruits, cotton and beans. Subsistence
farmers cultivating in flood plains were hit especially
hard, losing their summer corn crop (which was drying in the
fields),as well as a red-bean crop that is grown on the
drying corn stalks. In a country already suffering severe
erosion caused by overfarming marginal lands, ECLAC reports
that landslides caused by the rains damaged another 955
hectares of land.

Relief Efforts Focus on Mitigation
--------------


8. On October 4, 2005, the Legislative Assembly declared a
National Disaster and State of Emergency to free up
resources for disaster response. President Saca has
announced that public investment plans for next year would
focus on disaster prevention and mitigation. An Inter-
American Development Bank loan of $43 million that was
previously destined for the Ministry of Environment and
Natural Resources will now go toward disaster mitigation
efforts.


9. Housing reconstruction will also be a priority. A $75
million loan from the Central American Economic Integration
Bank for housing and road construction will also go to
disaster relief, including a housing project that President
Saca announced November 27 would provide homes to 2,000
persons displaced by the disasters. ECLAC projects that
coping with the aftermath of the disasters will increase the
fiscal deficit by 0.6 percent of GDP in 2006 for a total
deficit of 2.9 for the year, and by 0.3 percent of GDP in
2007 for a total deficit of 2.1 percent of GDP. For 2006,
reconstruction expenditures are estimated at $100 million,
with $52 million estimated for 2007.


10. Bilateral donors have pledged a total of about $9.5
million so far to support relief efforts. Spain has pledged
$3 million. Other donors include Germany, Italy, France,
Taiwan, Mexico, Norway, South Korea, Japan, and Israel.
Venezuela donated $400,000 in food and supplies. The United
States, through USAID, donated $2.1 million total to the
relief effort, including $100,000 to Catholic Relief
Services (CRS) for supplies, $100,000 to PAHO for water and
sanitation, $15,000 for volcanic monitoring, $400,000 in
food aid, $500,000 for small-scale infrastructure, and an
additional $1 million for priority needs to be identified in
agreement with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Multilateral donors have contributed an additional $1
million and have allowed the El Salvador to reprogram
previously approved loans for disaster relief.

POLITICAL FALLOUT?
--------------


11. In a November CID-Gallup poll, 81 percent of those
interviewed expressed approval of the Saca administration's
overall response to October's crisis; 72 percent
characterized the assistance to disaster victims as "Good"
or "Very Good." Some 87 percent blamed the widespread
destruction either on the exceptional strength of the
abnormal weather, deforestation, or the construction of
housing in at-risk areas, while only 6 percent indicated
that the government bore any blame for the scope of the
losses.


12. COMMENT: The damages from the October natural
disasters, while serious, do not appear to have dealt a
significant blow to the country's continued development on
the scale of Hurricane Mitch or the deadly 2001 earthquakes.
Recovery and reconstruction efforts are already underway.
With less than three months to go until March municipal and
Legislative Assembly elections, there seem to be no negative
ramifications from October's natural disasters for the
ruling ARENA party. On the contrary, the administration's
efficient response appears to have enhanced its reputation
for good government, and reinforced its advantage among
likely voters. END COMMENT.

Barclay