EL SALVADOR: THREE MONTHS FROM ELECTION, ARENA'S

UNCLAS SAN SALVADOR 003505

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL ES ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: EL SALVADOR: THREE MONTHS FROM ELECTION, ARENA'S
LEAD STILL SOLID

REF: SAN SALVADOR 2507


1. (SBU) Leading daily La Prensa Grafica publicized a
CID-Gallup poll taken November 30-December 5 that involved
1,212 interviews nationwide. President Saca's approval
rating remained at 72 percent overall, tying his rating of
August, and scarcely lower than the 74 percent approval
recorded at the end of the first trimester of his
administration. Respondents characterized the
administration's three most significant achievements as its
assistance to the poor/rural population, highway
construction, and the formation of the FOSALUD program
whereby public health clinics are funded via increased taxes
on alcohol, tobacco, and firearms. The three areas
identified for improvement included the failure of the "Firm
Hand" policy to combat crime, unfulfilled campaign promises,
and failure to end dollarization.


2. (SBU) Some 56 percent of those polled viewed President
Saca as "rather" or "very" sincere and truthful; this rating
has stayed consistent throughout the administration
(considering the margin of error of 2.8 percent).
Approximately 33 percent of respondents indicated an
intention to vote for the Nationalist Republican Alliance
(ARENA),with the Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front
(FMLN) mustering only 17 percent in intention to vote; some
40 percent responded that they either did not intend to vote,
or had not yet decided which party they favored. Some 55
percent of respondents stated they intended to vote in March.


3. (SBU) FMLN hardliner leader and failed presidential
candidate Schafik Handal continued to be one of the most
divisive figures in the poll, with 50 percent of the
population disproving of his performance, while 16 percent
approve.


4. (SBU) COMMENT: Saca's personal charisma and media savvy
are responsible for his party's high approval ratings, and
the President's "coattails" may offer ARENA candidates a ride
to victory in March. San Salvador city hall (which ARENA
lost to the FMLN in 1997) is an election of great interest,
and there is widespread speculation that ARENA may increase
its Legislative Assembly delegation from its present 29
seats. Saca's popularity is largely based on his optimistic
rhetoric about the future; if ARENA takes back San Salvador
city hall and gains greater power in the Assembly, it will
need to deliver results soon on reducing crime and improving
the economy, lest its own success at the polls backfire as
citizens become increasingly disillusioned in the face of the
nation's pressing problems. END COMMENT.
Barclay