MEDIA REACTION: ZOELLICK IN NICARAGUA, IRAN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SAN SALVADOR 002778

SIPDIS

STATE FOR INR/R/MR, EB/TPP, WHA/CEN, WHA/EPSC, WHA/PDA-
RQUIROZ
DEPT PASS USTR
AMEMBASSIES FOR PAS, POL

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KMDR ETRD ES KPAO USTR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: ZOELLICK IN NICARAGUA, IRAN


"Some Thoughts on Central American-U.S. Relations," by
columnist Mario Rosenthal in Sunday, October 09, 2005 "El
Diario de Hoy' (ultra conservative, 100,000)

"Statements last week by U.S. Undersecretary of State Robert
Zoellick about U.S. relations with Nicaragua led me to
reflect on recent changes.in U.S. policy relative to
intervention in the internal affairs of other countries,
particularly in Latin America and most especially in
Nicaragua which, along with Haiti,.has suffered from long
and frequent U.S. military occupation..

"The mantra of the 21st century is defending democracy.
Battleships are no longer being sent to collect overdue
debts. Presidents and treasurers of debtor countries no
longer fear taking on debts they know they cannot pay
because they hope - and they are very rarely wrong - that
their debts will be forgiven, and they know that the IMF,
the World Bank, and the IADB don't have battleships.

"Relations between the U.S. and Nicaragua have been strained
since the Sandinistas won power. During the Cold War,
Nicaragua was allied with the Soviet Bloc.. It received
aid via Cuba and supported the armed struggle of the FMLN in
El Salvador. The U.S. tried to defeat Nicaragua by force of
arms in the Reagan era, but Congress would not provide the
necessary support, evidently pressured by the huge anti-war
propaganda of the Vietnam War era.

"The CIA nonetheless surreptitiously supplied support to the
Contras based in Honduras. The effort was unsuccessful, but
it lost importance with the fall of the Soviet Union. Open
hostility ended when Violeta Chamorro won the
presidency,.but she was manipulated by the Sandinistas who
maintained their power as an armed party. Her mistake was
not seeking an alliance with the conservatives led by
Enrique Bolaos..

"In a press conference, Zoellick denounced the corrupt pact
between Daniel Ortega and his one-time political enemy
Arnold Alemn.to defeat Bolaos. The fear is this will open
the way for Ortega to win the presidency, which would
negatively affect U.S.-Nicarguan relations. [Zoellick] also
said the visas of supporters of Alemn and the Sandinistas
would be cancelled and that he would immediately revoke a
$175 million loan to Nicaragua. There is neither money nor
refuge for the corrupt in my country, he said."

"The Hard Line Option Toward Iran," by Barry Rubin in
Sunday, October 09, 2005 El Diario de Hoy (ultra-
conservative, 110,000). Column supplied by Project
Syndicate.

e.

"The election of the hard-line mayor of Teheran, Mahmoud
Ahmadinejab, as the next Iranian president will likely
worsen relations with the West and lead to international
isolation for Iran..

"It is clear that Ahmadinejad has popular support. That he
has presented himself as a populist, spoken of helping the
poor, condemned the working of the government, and acted as
if he were a candidate of the opposition is irrelevant. In
the end, he won official support against the other hard-line
candidates. The regime played its cards brilliantly -
converting Hashemi Rafsanjani. into a symbol of `the system'
and portraying its own man as the rebel. It used anti-
government sentiments to renew its own mandate..

"Admadinejad represents the young revolutionary activists
who brought down the Shah. He was directly involved with
the taking of U.S. hostages in Iran.. Most worrisome of all
he is close to the most extremist groups in Iran.. Still,
fear that an even more radical leader has assumed power in
Iran are mitigated by two factors: one, Adhmadinejad will
likely concentrate on internal issues..., trying to raise
the standard of living of the poorest Iraqis; second, the
same group that has had control since the revolution still
controls ideological and foreign affairs. The President
actually has less power than it appears..

"Nonetheless, Admadinejad's election makes clear the
challenge that Iran represents for .stability in the Middle
East... It sends a signal to extremist elements in Iran and
their terrorist clients - Hezbollah., Hamas and Islamic
Jihad., and other small groups working against Saudi Arabia,
Iraq and other Arab states - that they have the green light
to launch attacks. Seen from the outside, Iran often
appears relatively moderate, but covertly it has been the
most important sponsor of world terrorism. At times certain
Iranian officials may have acted on their own.. Now they'll
feel they have more freedom to do so.

"Admadinejad has also openly supported Iran's nuclear arms
program.. As the president of a nuclear-armed Iraq, he'd
probably use the weapons. as a means of nuclear blackmail..
It is also likely that Ahmadinejad will move more decisively
to further destabilize Iraq.. Iran is already sending agents
to Iraq and supporting those who would turn it into an
Iranian clone.. A more militant posture by Iran will
increase friction with Iraq and generate more anti-U.S.
violence.

"The electoral results in Iran are dangerous. and will be a
challenge not only for the U.S. but for Europe as well."

BARCLAY