ANTI-CAFTA FORCES HEARTENED BY SUCCESSFUL PROTEST

UNCLAS SAN JOSE 002689

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CEN JASON MACK

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ETRD PREL ELAB CS
SUBJECT: ANTI-CAFTA FORCES HEARTENED BY SUCCESSFUL PROTEST

REF: A. SAN JOSE 1153


B. SAN JOSE 2215

C. SAN JOSE 2248

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SUMMARY
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1. On November 17, about 10,000 protesters participated in
the first major demonstration to follow President Abel
Pacheco's presentation of the U.S.-Central America-Dominican
Republic Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR) to the Legislative
Assembly. While the demonstration, organized by labor and
student unions, was generally considered a great success for
the organizers, its draw was limited to members of the
organizing bodies, which pro-CAFTA business leaders were
quick to point out. More demonstrations are expected in the
coming months as the Legislative Assembly debates the free
trade agreement; the success of the November 17 march will
undoubtedly energize opposition forces and encourage
ambitious plans for future events. End summary.


2. On November 17, labor unions and student groups staged
what was anticipated to be a major demonstration against
CAFTA-DR. Participants convened in various locations around
the capital and later converged on the Legislative Assembly
buildings, where legislators are expected to begin the long
process of CAFTA-DR ratification later this month. The
protesters were generally peaceful, and many carried signs
denouncing every public figure that has come out in support
of CAFTA-DR. Simultaneously, there were other, smaller
anti-CAFTA demonstrations throughout the country.


3. The march was organized and attended primarily by four
groups: the National Association of Public and Private
Employees (ANEP),the unions of the Costa Rican Electricity
Institute (ICE),the Secondary School Teachers' Association
(APSE),and student groups from the University of Costa Rica.
Several national political figures participated in the
event, among them minor presidential candidates Humberto Arce
and Walter Munoz and several anti-CAFTA-DR legislators.
Other anti-CAFTA-DR demonstrations are expected to follow
over the coming months. Pro-CAFTA-DR groups are organizing
their own demonstration on November 24.


4. Estimates on the size of the crowd have varied widely.
Influential daily newspaper La Nacion offered a graphical
analysis of crowd density and a resulting estimate of 18,000
participants. Costa Rican security officials told us
informally that their estimate, based on the number of busses
involved, was closer to 7,800. Based on pictures and
eyewitness accounts from embassy personnel, the actual number
of participants was likely somewhere between those two
estimates. Embassy, which witnessed the demonstration, has
settled on a round 10,000. Event organizers were a bit more
fanciful in their estimations, with Albino Vargas, the head
of ANEP and one of the country's leading anti-CAFTA-DR
figures, estimating the crowd at 50,000, and Jesus Vasquez,
head of the teachers' union, shooting for the moon with an
estimate of 80,000.


5. Regardless of the actual numbers, the march was considered
an enormous success for the anti-CAFTA-DR movement. After
several lackluster, poorly attended events over the past year
(see reftels),organizers were able to rally thousands in a
peaceful, colorful demonstration of opposition to the free
trade agreement. Business leaders also claimed victory,
however, citing scant support for the demonstrations outside
the organizing groups.

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COMMENT
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6. The relative success of this event will undoubtedly
encourage opposition leaders to push forward with plans for
more demonstrations, especially when debate in the
Legislative Assembly begins. Prior to the November 17
demonstration, many observers had written off the
opposition's ability to organize large anti-CAFTA-DR crowds.
While they have proven skeptics wrong for now, they still
face a daunting challenge to deliver their promised
nationwide strikes, the threat of which for months caused
President Pacheco not to send CAFTA-DR to the Legislative
Assembly.
LANGDALE