FORMER PRESIDENT CALDERON RELEASED FROM HOUSE

UNCLAS SAN JOSE 002451

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CEN JASON MACK

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV CS
SUBJECT: FORMER PRESIDENT CALDERON RELEASED FROM HOUSE
ARREST

REF: A. SAN JOSE 2412


B. SAN JOSE 646 AND PREVIOUS


1. As presaged in Reftel A, former President Rafael Angel
Calderon (1990-94) was released from house arrest on October
19, 2005, under conditions similar to those imposed on
ex-President Miguel Angel Rodriguez. Specifically, Calderon
is prohibited from leaving the country or having any contact
with witnesses or co-defendants, and must appear in court
every fifteen days. In another parallel to the Rodriguez
case, Calderon was released two days shy of his one year
anniversary in preventative detention. Calderon was arrested
on October 22, 2004, and held in La Reforma prison until
March, 2005, when he was transferred to house arrest at his
own domicile. Calderon is under investigation for corruption
and influence peddling for allegedly receiving some USD 9
million as a "consulting fee" for helping to broker a loan
for medical equipment purchases from Finland. No formal
charges have yet been filed.

COMMENT
--------------

2. With the release of Rodriguez and Calderon at the outset
of national election season, it is unclear what role, if any,
the two former presidents will play in the national debate.
Ricardo Toledo, the candidate from the ex-presidents' Social
Christian Unity Party (PUSC),has been unable to muster
strong support within the party, and as a result is currently
drawing only seven percent of likely voters in recent polls.
This is not likely to change, as Calderon, who continues to
wield considerable power within the party, is unlikely to
back Toledo. He (and possibly Rodriguez) might, however,
play a role in legislative elections. With their release,
they have become marginally less damaged goods, and could
work behind the scenes to consolidate party support for PUSC
aspirants to the Legislative Assembly. But even under the
rosiest of such scenarios, the party would not win more than
ten seats in the 57-member body, substantially down from the
19 that PUSC won in the last election.
FRISBIE