Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05SANAA307
2005-02-14 18:17:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Sanaa
Cable title:  

YEMENI VIEWS ON ELECTIONS AND THE FUTURE OF IRAQ

Tags:  PGOV PREL KMDR KPAO IZ YM 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SANAA 000307 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR DAS PHILO DIBBLE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KMDR KPAO IZ YM
SUBJECT: YEMENI VIEWS ON ELECTIONS AND THE FUTURE OF IRAQ

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Summary:
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SANAA 000307

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR DAS PHILO DIBBLE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KMDR KPAO IZ YM
SUBJECT: YEMENI VIEWS ON ELECTIONS AND THE FUTURE OF IRAQ

--------------
Summary:
--------------


1. (SBU) Liberal elites, moderate Islamists, ROYG officials
as well as civil society activists and journalists in Yemen
are unanimous in considering the recent elections held in
Iraq as a step in the right direction. All are equally
unanimous, however, in expressing skepticism that these
elections, in and of themselves, could guarantee a peaceful
progress towards full-fledged democracy in Iraq. The ROYG, in
particular, has been eerily silent in terms of official
commentary and very low-key in unofficial discussions of the
elections. Having at first expressed their intent to send
observers to the elections, the ROYG pulled out of a proposed
partnership with a Canadian delegation to Baghdad at the
eleventh hour. The Yemeni street has not reacted in any
obvious manner to the elections, reflecting perhaps the same
wait-and-see attitude of their government. Amidst a
realization that developments in Iraq would ultimately impact
the Gulf region and Yemen, all discussions of Iraq's future
remain tinged with a Sunni Arab weariness of a Shia majority
assuming power in Baghdad. End Summary.

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On the positive side, "What a relief!"
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2. (SBU) Local journalists and intellectuals expressed relief
that election-related violence was much less than had been
forecast. Most were willing to admit that the mere fact that
the elections took place despite all the violence and
political complications was an important achievement. The
main challenge remained, according to many of our media
interlocutors, the task of including the Sunni community in
the next steps in shaping Iraq's future, agreeing on a
constitution and, not incidentally, ending U.S. occupation.


4. (SBU) The majority of educated, reform-minded Yemeni
elite, including those within the ROYG, embrace the hope that
democracy will one day take root in Iraq and thereby boosting
the chances of economic and democratic reform in the region.
A senior Yemeni diplomat exclaimed, in a private meeting with
embassy officers, "The elections were great! I'm glad they
took place." The same diplomat, however, was certain that his
government would not be forthcoming any time soon with any

encouraging statement to the IIG on its efforts. Civil
society activists have expressed similar sentiments towards
the elections but remained skeptical about the ultimate
success of the Iraqi democratic experiment. One minor-tribal
leader pointing to Lebanon as the most democratic Arab state,
perhaps followed by Yemen, concluded that even in these two
small and not very influential countries, democracy was not
exactly secure. Some of our interlocutors expressed the hope
that the U.S. would do more for democracy in the region and
be more aggressive in pursuing democratic reform than it has
hitherto been.

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Shia-Phobia raises its ugly head
--------------


5. (SBU) All our interlocutors voiced concerns about the very
low turnout of Sunni voters in Iraq. While most phrased their
concern in terms of the balance that was needed in any
emerging political system, some were blunt in voicing their
apprehension about the emergence of a Shia majority in
Baghdad and the possibility of another Khomeni-style
theocracy taking hold. Contacts in Aden, known for their
less conservative views, share the same skepticism about a
Shia-dominated government as their northern counterparts.
They fear, despite Allawi's assurances, that a
non-representative Iraqi Parliament will fail to produce a
viable constitution with protection of minority-Sunni rights.
Interspersed with seemingly rational political arguments, an
outright admission of distrust of Shia Muslims in general was
also expressed. Despite Yemeni-Sunni reformers' expressed
support for democracy, many could not mask their
disappointment that the SISTANI-block swept the elections,
unconvinced by SISTANI's claims of support for a secularist
government.

-------------- ---
"U.S. occupation" remains a hard pill to swallow
-------------- ---


7. (SBU) Official media reacted reflexively the day after the
election, leading with headlines about "a bloody day in
Iraq," and focused mainly on the violence that took place in
various locations across Iraq. In the days that followed,
coverage became more guarded and factual, providing the facts
and figures that appeared in the international media and
ending with election results and percentages. Most
newspapers, official, opposition and independent, lamented
the poor Sunni turnout fearing that under-representation of
ethnic minorities could fuel continued violence and
ultimately threaten the unity of Iraq. Anti-American
sentiment was manifested in editorials and columns in several
papers, including the official "al-Thawra," in which Yemen's
most popular poet and intellectual asked rhetorically how any
election process could have any credibility under continued
American occupation. America's motives, remaining suspect in
the eyes of most commentators, colored most reports on the
future of Iraq. Official, opposition and independent media
alike, still referred to American and coalition presence in
Iraq as an odious occupation regardless of any positive
outcome that may or may not result from the elections.


8. (SBU) Some self-deprecating academics in Sanaa hailed the
Iraqi elections and pointed, only half-jokingly, to the irony
of an Arab world that experiences more freedom under foreign
occupation and internal chaos than under the more
"independent and stable" conditions in the rest of the
region. Man-in-the-street reactions have not been very
pronounced but, anecdotally, we've heard that the average
Yemeni has bought into the conspiracy theories that dismiss
the Iraqi election as an "American film," a totally rigged
affair that can only result in the empowerment of an Iraqi
leadershiop that the U.S. wanted all along.


9. (SBU) Comment: In the absence of official ROYG
endorsement and a dearth of bold champions among Yemeni
elites, Iraqi elections and, indeed, the entire Iraqi
democratic experiment, remain vague, problematic and of very
questionable value, in the eyes of most Yemenis - at least
until the next chapter unfolds. End Comment.
Krajeski