Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05SANAA1820
2005-07-03 05:17:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Sanaa
Cable title:  

OPPOSITION COALITION PREPARES FOR 2006 ELECTIONS

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030517Z Jul 05
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SANAA 001820 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM KMCA KMPI YM DOMESTIC POLITICS
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION COALITION PREPARES FOR 2006 ELECTIONS


Classified By: CDA Nabeel Khoury for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SANAA 001820

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM KMCA KMPI YM DOMESTIC POLITICS
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION COALITION PREPARES FOR 2006 ELECTIONS


Classified By: CDA Nabeel Khoury for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. In recent weeks Sanaa has been abuzz with
rumors that the opposition party coalition, the Joint Meeting
Parties (JMP) plans to nominate a challenger to President
Saleh in 2006. In late May, members of the JMP central
committee, comprised of one designated representative from
each party, discussed the upcoming elections with poloffs.
The JMP has yet to obtain agreement from all parties on a
reform agenda, let alone a candidate for the Presidency, but
the leaders were hopeful that a JMP reform initiative would
soon be released. End Summary.

--------------
Al-Ahmar an Obstacle to Islah and JMP Unity
--------------


2. (C) As Yemen's leading opposition, Islah dominates the
JMP. Islah, in turn, remains in the shadow of Party head
Sheikh Abdullah al-Ahmar, the powerful Speaker of Parliament
and Yemen's leading tribal chief. Al-Ahmar is not a reformer
and does not share the views of most Islahis active in JMP
politics. For JMP to run its own candidate in 2006, it must
overcome not only disunity within coalition parties, but also
the split in Islah between powerful al-Ahmar and more
progressive elements within the party. Another mystery in
this regard is the position of the Salafi tendency within
Islah, led by Abdul Majid al-Zindani.
--------------
What is the JMP?
--------------


3. (U) The JMP was formed in 2002 and consists of dominant
opposition party Islah, along with the Yemeni Socialist Party
(YSP),the Nasserite Unionist Popular Party, the Union of the
Popular Forces (UPF),the Arab Socialist National Baath Party
and the Haq party. The coalition lacks by-laws or
infrastructure and functions through a central committee of
one representative from each party. JMP decisions require
consensus of the multipartisan committee, followed by
ratification by the leadership of the individual parties.

--------------
Political Reform First
--------------


4. (C) Mohammed Qahtan, Islah party representative to the JMP
central committee, said that the coalition was concentrating

its efforts on releasing what will be called the "Political
Reform Initiative" as the first step in developing a JMP
platform for 2006. Abdul Malik al-Mutawakil of the JMP
central committee from the UPF added that the JMP position is
that "political reform must come first" and that nothing can
be done without it. Other JMP representatives have echoed
his call to other diplomats in forums throughout Sanaa.


5. (C) Although the release of the JMP reform initiative has
been anticipated for some time, to date the individual party
leaderships have been unable to agree on a unified position.
JMP representatives are tight lipped on the document's
content although YSP MP and JMP representative Aidroos Nasser
noted that the themes of the initiative would entail, "an
initial demand for political and economic reform, followed by
a call for a correction in the balance of power and a true
fight against corruption."

-------------- --------------
An Opposition Candidate Who Can Survive the Campaign
-------------- --------------


6. (C) According to Qahtan, the JMP reform agenda is to serve
as a platform for a competitive opposition candidate in 2006.
The JMP party representatives insisted that no one has been
picked, but that they were seeking a "national, non-military
figure" willing to challenge Saleh head-on. "If such a
candidate can survive three months into the election without
assassination," quipped Qahtan, "he would surely win." There
have been rumors that Qahtan himself might be the candidate,
but he denied this saying that whoever is chosen would not
likely come from a political party within the coalition.

--------------
Where Will Party Loyalties Lie?
--------------


7. (C) Many in the coalition worry about the position that
Islah leader al-Ahmar would take in the end. In 1999, Islah,
through Ahmar, endorsed President Saleh even before Saleh's
own party, the General People's Congress (GPC),did and
Saleh's competition for the Presidency was a fellow GPC
member. Qahtan dismissed this possibility, insisting that
Islah would not nominate Saleh in 2006. "This option," said
Qahtan, "would be worse for Islah than any other possible
challenger to Saleh, regardless of party affiliation."
Qahtan, however, is not considered an al-Ahmar insider. Post
interlocutors further point out that Sheikh al-Ahmar
currently denies that a JMP reform initiative even exists.

--------------
Ruling GPC Reaches out to Opposition
--------------


8. (C) In May Saleh commissioned GPC Secretary General Dr.
Abdul Karim al-Iryani to renew a "National Dialogue" with the
opposition parties. These meetings have largely failed. In
early June, the JMP accepted Saleh's invitation with the
stipulation that they would coordinate on the agenda, but
failed to get agreement. Reports have surfaced that Saleh
conducted one-on-one meetings with the Islahi, Nasserite and
YSP leaderships, outside of the JMP context. JMP
representatives insist that there are no unannounced agreements
between any party and the GPC on the 2006 elections. Only as
a coalition, they insisted, can the JMP really challenge the
President.


9. (C) Comment: With the 2006 Presidential election
approaching, JMP feels challenged to produce a detailed
reform initiative. If JMP members can avoid the temptation
to cut separate election deals with the ruling GPC, they
might have a chance to present an alternative agenda that
focuses on Yemen's festering corruption and poverty. With
Islah still in the shadows of the GPC and tribal elite,
however, the JMP faces a significant challenge in asserting
its own identity. Given domestic politics, the fact that the
JMP has lasted since 2002 is in itself something of an
accomplishment. As Mutawakil expressed it, "Hopefully every
party will represent itself one day, but for now we need a
strong coalition if we are to play a role in shaping Yemen's
future." End Comment.
Khoury